Frozen Tools Forensics: Playoff Push

Chris Kane

2023-04-07

With the NHL playoffs fast approaching, many fantasy leagues have ended, and as per usual some odd things are happening with NHL teams. We have teams secured in their spot resting all their key players, we have teams well out of it giving their new young players a chance, and we have teams pushing hard down the stretch to secure their spot.

For today's article we are going to focus on those teams that still have something to fight for. They are relevant because, well it is just a fascinating and exciting story, but also if anyone happens to be in full-season leagues, these are the teams who have the most to play for and so will be acting in a more consistent and predictable manner.

For today we will be taking a look at each of these teams, where they are in the race, and who is stepping up (or not) for the push to the playoffs. To get the data for the article I took the last three weeks' worth of games and used the standard Big Board report. I pulled the data on April 6, so it will not take into account that several of the teams play on Thursday evening. For any of these players – any fantasy advice assumes that your league is still active and will be using remaining games played.

As of the time of this writing we have some great Wild Card races going on. In the East we have the Panthers (87 points), Islanders (87 points), and Penguins (86 points) all with 78 games played, vying for two Wild Card spots

Out West we have one Wild Card spot realistically in play with Winnipeg (89 points in 78 games), Calgary (89 points in 79 games) and Nashville (86 points in 77 games) all in contention. 

Calgary

NamePosTeamGPGAPTSPTS/GP%PPTOISOG/G
TYLER TOFFOLIRCGY1188161.4556.417:033.64
MACKENZIE WEEGARDCGY1137100.9136.722:382.45
JONATHAN HUBERDEAULCGY111890.8243.617:010.91
MIKAEL BACKLUNDCCGY112790.824919:292.45
BLAKE COLEMANRCGY114480.730.715:381.55
ANDREW MANGIAPANELCGY114480.7349.616:462.09
ELIAS LINDHOLMCCGY112680.735518:432.45

Calgary has had a rough go of it this season, but are back in the hunt. They have the most games played of the group so will need a little bit of luck to make it in. Tyler Toffoli and Mackenzie Weegar are certainly doing their part to make it happen though. With eight goals in his last 11 and 16 points overall, Toffoli is on fire. Jonathan Huberdeau has found a little life as well with nine points in his last 11 as well. Roster percent wise, Mikael Backlund, Andrew Mangiapane, and Blake Coleman are still under 50 percent. All are worth a look, and Mangiapane in particular has been getting opportunities with top deployment. Not on this list? High prices free agent acquisition Nazem Kadri.

Nashville

NamePosTeamGPGAPTSPTS/GP%PPTOISOG/G
TOMMY NOVAKCNSH1249131.0868.617:301.75
PHILIP TOMASINORNSH122790.7558.317:061.67
TYSON BARRIEDNSH122790.756821:402.08
LUKE EVANGELISTARNSH124590.7568.416:552.50
CODY GLASSCNSH125270.5867.416:492.50

Tyson Barrie is the only one of this group who is rostered in more than 14 percent of leagues. If your league is still going, this is the list for you. Nashville is such an interesting story here. Sellers at the deadline, basically their whole top power-play injured and yet here they are on the back of Barrie, Tommy Novak, and a few other up and coming prospects.

Winnipeg

NamePosTeamGPGAPTSPTS/GP%PPTOISOG/G
NIKOLAJ EHLERSLWPG105380.842.515:253.20
PIERRE-LUC DUBOISCWPG92460.675318:273.00
KYLE CONNORLWPG104260.660.120:543.00
NEAL PIONKDWPG101450.540.322:111.50
ADAM LOWRYCWPG103250.519.515:151.30

In the exact opposite camp from Nashville and Calgary, Winnipeg is dramatically underwhelming. Top performing Nikolaj Ehlers here is doing okay, but Pierre-Luc Dubois and Kyle Connor are pointing well below a significant chunk of the Nashville and Calgary lineups. Not even pictured here are guys like Josh Morrissey, Mark Scheifele, and Blake Wheeler who have only managed four points in their last ten. If Nashville is the team of no-names picking up the ball and running with it, Winnipeg is the team of big names players very much dropping it. They certainly had the best odds of making the playoff a few weeks ago, but are doing everything they can to squander it. 

Florida

NamePosTeamGPGAPTSPTS/GP%PPTOISOG/G
MATTHEW TKACHUKRFLA1197161.458720:073.82
ALEKSANDER BARKOVCFLA11313161.4569.620:593.00
SAM REINHARTRFLA1168141.277220:002.27
CARTER VERHAEGHELFLA1185131.1855.317:414.82
BRANDON MONTOURDFLA11210121.0977.723:313.09

Calgary and Florida have shared a lot of similar story lines since their dramatic trade and offseason shakeups. Both have struggled for various reasons this season, but scoring certainly has not been Florida's problem of late. Their top five scorers are all over a point per game (a feat none of Winnipeg could manage) and even Aaron Ekblad has shown a few signs of life. Most likely none of this is impactful as all of these players are rostered, but further down the list we should take a quick look at Anthony Duclair.

Duclair was injured for most of the season, but there was some hype when he returned and looked to be playing top line minutes. He does still seem to be getting that time, playing with Aleksander Barkov and Carter Verhaeghe in Florida's April 4 game. Unfortunately, while they are both on a tear, Duclair has only five points in his last ten (and three came in one game). His shooting percentage is criminally low, so he should be doing better, but he is certainly running out of real estate to turn things around.

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NY Islanders

NamePosTeamGPGAPTSPTS/GP%PPTOISOG/G
KYLE PALMIERIRNYI955101.1157.817:462.33
JEAN-GABRIEL PAGEAUCNYI92570.7837.115:531.78
PIERRE ENGVALLLNYI93360.6738.416:082.11
ZACH PARISELNYI95160.6738.215:112.11
BROCK NELSONCNYI94260.6754.915:542.11

The Islanders never have a ton of high-scoring players, so it isn't surprising to see only one point per game player over the last few weeks. It is a little surprising to see that it is Kyle Palmieri instead of Anders Lee, Bo Horvat, and Brock Nelson. Palmieri is still only eight percent rostered so could be worth a shot, though his points are mostly bunched together and he hasn't put up anything in his last three games.

Pittsburgh

NamePosTeamGPGAPTSPTS/GP%PPTOISOG/G
RICKARD RAKELLRPIT114590.8264.517:562.36
EVGENI MALKINCPIT111780.7367.818:372.91
JAKE GUENTZELLPIT116280.7368.220:223.45
BRYAN RUSTRPIT115380.7333.820:003.09
SIDNEY CROSBYCPIT112570.646620:383.64

The only real surprises on this list are that Kris Letang isn't on it (which is actually no surprise to anyone holding him) and that Sidney Crosby is so low on it. The Penguins are doing okay, and for the most part it is the same players who have performed all season. Bryan Rust is really the only potential add here as he has had a pretty rough season and only recently shown any semblance of a spark.

That is all for this week

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