Looking Ahead: Girard a Potential Difference Maker, Fade Schenn and the Blues
Andrew Santillo
2023-04-07
Welcome back everyone and happy final week of the fantasy hockey season! I know there are those leagues out there that wrapped up the finals on Sunday night, but there's still leagues that are playing right up until the final horn. In my main league, we played that format during the "COVID years" (as we now refer to them). If I can give one bit of advice, it's check and double check your lineups throughout the day. This is the time of the season where guys might be shutting it down for playoffs, or you might see a team hold a player out with an injury that he might have otherwise played through if it were earlier in the season. With that, let's wrap this season up with a win.
The Immediate Fix (Grab this guy and use him for the next several days)
Samuel Girard, D, Colorado Avalanche (Rostered in 14% of ESPN leagues, 57% Fantrax, 24% Yahoo) – By now in playoffs, you guys all know the drill and just who we're looking for to fill our Immediate Fix. We want both weekend games, and as many games next week as we can possibly fit in. Colorado fits that parameter perfect, and I think the player we'll be looking to add is Girard.
Everyone has that one player in their league that they put the flag/star watchlist tag on and maybe you make a move on that player or maybe you don't. Regardless, this is a player you've had circled all season, and for me that player has been Girard. Not only is his physical game great for fantasy with 108 blocked shots, but we'll take 27 points from a defenseman all day in fantasy hockey. He might be the third option for defense in Colorado behind Devon Toews and of course Cale Makar, but for now he's lower rostered and provides what we need to close out the regular season.
Girard gets second-unit power-play time but for the past three games this has been a Colorado club that has had a decent split in time, with Girard and the second unit receiving around 30% of time on the man advantage. Girard's point production has also been steady throughout the season and if you're worried about him not getting on the scoresheet, I don't think there's too much to worry about. Girard went six games without a point in late November – early December coming back from an injury, but since then he has not gone three games without a point. If he goes pointless Thursday night against the Sharks that would make three in a row, so the trend here at least points to that would be the extent of him without a point. It's by no means a perfect formula here but trends are your friends, so Girard might just be the player to add to help fill up a roster during the final week.
The Building Block (Buy now, sit back and enjoy the production)
Devon Levi, G, Buffalo Sabres (Rostered in 5% of ESPN leagues, 37% Fantrax, 9% Yahoo) – For your Building Block upcoming…Connor Bedard! Well, not really. Can't exactly write about him just yet but I am curious how early he goes in fantasy drafts next season. There's always that one league member who is more into prospects than the rest of the league, so my guess is it’s that person. For this Building Block though, let's take a look at Levi.
If I'm a Sabres fan yeah, I'm a little bummed at how the season went. Full disclosure here, I sort of think they should have maybe spent more for a veteran player but then again, I don't have to pay the talent that is coming up on that club. With that though, there was a good amount of excitement with Devon Levi coming up to play with the club this season and although it's been up and down, I think he can help end the season for your fantasy club.
In three starts Levi has just one win but has allowed just two goals in two contests and looked like he didn't rattle too much in net or get drawn out of his crease and lose his net. What I like here is that he will likely start in at the very least two games this week and next, which makes him a good go-to if you're in need of a starter in net.
The Odd Man Out (His short-term value is cause for concern)
Brayden Schenn, C/LW, St. Louis Blues (Rostered in 63% of ESPN leagues, 73% of Fantrax, 69% Yahoo) – The Blues have just three more games remaining on their schedule and looking even further into next season I could see Schenn being named an Odd-Man Out.
There's been so many of these Odd-Men out that I really do like as players, both in "real life" so to speak and fantasy as well. Schenn is one of those players, and one that I've rostered in the past and enjoyed success with him on my roster. He brings physicality to his game which is valuable for leagues that score those aspects of the game and if he plays even 70 games in a regular season, he generally finishes the year between 62-68 points. The issue here is twofold, what will likely be around him in the lineup and how you have to carry his contract into next season for those in cap leagues.
The Blues did the right thing when they traded away Ryan O'Reilly and Vladimir Tarasenko, which was building around Jordan Kyrou, Robert Thomas, and I'm throwing my guy Jakub Vrana in here as well even though he was not with the organization when those trades were made. This however is going to be problematic for Schenn as he could very well at times next season be on a line with bottom six players. That's also taking into consideration that he's likely going to start more rushes in the defensive zone if next season goes the way that I think we can see it potentially going for the Blues, which can hurt fantasy value.
With his contract, I don't want to say any contract is immovable in the NHL. Sure, you have your top of the top contracts by AAV but those players that have those contracts aren't on the move anyways. For Schenn it's five more seasons at $6.5 a year as he heads into his age 32/33 season (He will turn 32 in August. Happy early birthday from all of us here at Dobber Hockey!), I don't think we see his name in a lot of trades to contenders next season, but if this season taught us anything it's that I think they'll be more third-party clubs that will act as brokers so to speak. If your rostering him in a cap league, I think he's worth holding onto, but it may be difficult to see him on a real contender in the near future.
The Anchors (They’ll do nothing but disappoint even over the long haul)
Jonathan Huberdeau, LW/RW, Calgary Flames (Rostered in 89% of ESPN leagues, 92% Fantrax, 87% Yahoo) – I think Huberdeau is one of the top ten or so players that more NHL conversations have been about going into this season. I must call him out as an Anchor going into your draft though this fall.
Maybe Huberdeau is worth a late-round flyer pick, or someone you add right away off waivers for those in smaller leagues? The issue is that would be about where I would draw the line. We all know the season that Huberdeau has last year and as incredible as it was, there's something to be said about his decline this year. Huberdeau went from a player that had 115 points to one that will end up most likely around the 55-point mark.
To me this is almost like the Taylor Hall situation in his Hart Trophy season in 2017-18. He was a good player, but one that averaged 47 points in the seven seasons leading up to his Hart Trophy season with New Jersey. Injuries are definitely part of his conversation, but for Huberdeau he averaged 55 points in nine seasons before the tremendous season that he has last year. This is I think just the issue with taking Huberdeau higher in drafts looking to try and chase his production in 2021-22.
We of course don't know the whole story of this season for Huberdeau or any player in regard to harboring some sort of injury, but we can look at his stats over his career as to what potentially went south. The issue here is that outside of the obvious decline in point production from last season his shooting percentage and assist numbers are about where he's been over the course of his career. I think in the case for Huberdeau as we go into next season, I'd look at him in the ballpark of 59-63 points. Which in prospective to this season puts you in the neighborhood of Nick Suzuki, Brandon Hagel, and his teammate Elias Lindholm.
Love ‘Em (These squads are sure to pay dividends in the coming days)
This period runs through April 7 to April 15
Boston – The Bruins started lowering the ice times for players on their top lines and I would imagine are close to some of those players sitting out altogether. Regardless, they do still grade out well moving into next week with games against the Capitals and Canadiens upcoming.
Seattle – The Kraken are on the backend of a streak of easier opponents with games against Chicago and Arizona on the horizon. They could very well have the top wild card spot in the West wrapped up after this weekend.
Nashville – The Predators have a tougher schedule with games upcoming against the Flames, Wild, and Avalanche, but there's still those lower-rostered players on fantasy rosters from Nashville. They're a Love 'Em as we end the season.
Leave ‘Em (These squads will leave fantasy owners sorely disappointed in the short term)
Montreal – A tough season for Montreal ends the only way it could, brutal back-to-back against the Islanders and Boston.
St. Louis – The Blues will face Dallas in a home-and-home to end the regular season and that doesn't grade out well for us given where each club is right now. They're on the Leave 'Em side of things for now.
Florida – In one night this week, the Panthers got not only into the wild card, but passed the Islanders for the top spot. The problem moving forward is they'll see Toronto and Carolina next week. A Leave 'Em for now but at the very least entertaining hockey coming up for Florida.
Friday, April 7th to Thursday, April 13th, 2023 |
Best Bets |
Boston 4.44 – Away PHI MTL – Home NJD WSH |
Seattle 4.40 – ARI VGK – Home CHI VGK |
Chicago 4.15 – Away SEA PIT – Home MIN PHI |
Minnesota 4.09 – Away CHI NSH – Home STL WPG |
Carolina 4.05 – Away BUF OTT FLA – Home DET |
Steer Clear |
Montreal 2.70 – Away TOR NYI – Home BOS |
Nashville 2.67 – Away WPG CGY – Home MIN |
St. Louis 2.80 – Away MIN DAL – Home DAL |
Ottawa 2.83 – Away BUF – Home TBL CAR |
Florida 2.84 – Away WSH – Home TOR CAR |
Saturday, April 8th to Friday, April 14th, 2023 |
Best Bets |
Boston 4.44 – Away PHI MTL – Home NJD WSH |
Seattle 4.40 – Away ARI VGK – Home CHI VGK |
Chicago 4.15 – Away SEA PIT – Home MIN PHI |
Minnesota 4.09 – Away CHI NSH – Home STL WPG |
Carolina 4.05 – Away BUF OTT FLA – Home DET |
Steer Clear |
Montreal 2.70 – Away TOR NYI – Home BOS |
Nashville 2.76 – Away WPG CGY – Home MIN |
St. Louis 2.80 – Away MIN DAL – Home DAL |
Ottawa 2.83 – Away BUF – Home TBL CAR |
Florida 2.84 – Away WSH – Home TOR CAR |
Sunday, April 9th to Saturday, April 15th, 2023 |
Best Bets |
Boston 3.28 – Away PHI MTL – Home WSH |
Colorado 3.15 – Away ANA – Home EDM WPG |
Seattle 3.14 – Away ARI VGK – Home VGK |
Philadelphia 3.14 – Away CHI – Home BOS CBJ |
Chicago 3.11 – Away PIT – Home MIN PHI |
Steer Clear |
Montreal 1.75 – Away NYI – Home BOS |
Nashville 1.81 – Away CGY – Home MIN |
Ottawa 1.89 – Away BUF – Home CAR |
Florida 1.89 – Home TOR CAR |
St. Louis 1.90 – Away DAL DAL |
*For continued fantasy news and notes, follow me on Twitter @ndySanz.