Flip Livingstone's Picks

The final super Saturday of the 2022-23 NHL season is here. With it brings obvious opportunity to reflect on the betting year that was – but perhaps, we'd be much better suited if we spent the time focusing on where we're going instead of on where we've been in terms of laying wagers on our favorite game this year.

With the first round of the NHL postseason only a week-and-change away, we're about to enter an extremely exciting time to gamble on hockey. The initial handful of nights in the playoffs are commonly the best evenings of the entire hockey calendar for dedicated and even fair-weather hockey heads. Four or five games of intense action every single night that can reveal some really favorable betting scenarios and intense competition.

Speaking of which, be careful out there today with every single NHL team in action (the first time in NHL history) and most of them with little or nothing to play for other than pride – which is always a tricky angle to handicap. Playoff positioning and three wild-card spots still up for grabs will no doubt produce yet another day of intriguing hockey showdowns and betting angles to breakdown.

Let's tap in and get this money. Good luck!

2022-23 Saturday Record Breakdown (Complete Daily Record Tracked/Posted @Flips_Picks)

Gold: 9-4
Silver: 7-6
Bronze: 8-5
Side bets: 24-13-2

Overall Combined Saturday Record: 48-28-2

Gold Selection

Colorado Avalanche @ L.A. Kings – Pick: Avalanche ML (-120)

I'm keeping all of my breakdowns this week as short and sweet as possible and it starts in what I believe to be the most exciting game on the slate featuring the Avs and Kings. Cale Makar's most-recent ailment obviously is a major hurdle to clear for a Colorado club that's seemingly been unable to get any luck on the man games-lost front this season, but this is the reigning Stanley Cup Champion we're talking about here. A team that, even in the face of a number of changes at key pieces over the offseason and a slew of injuries to their core during the campaign, has been able to maintain striking distance on the Central Division for a majority of the season.

No disrespect toward an L.A. Kings club that feels like it could be on the cusp of doing something special, but their time will come. The Avalanche's is right now. With an 8-2-0 record over their last 10 overall, Colorado is playing some of its best hockey at the most opportune time possible and a win against the Kings tonight coupled with a Dallas Stars and Minnesota Wild loss will go a long way in the Avs securing their third division crown in the past three seasons.

The Kings need some respect on their name, too, as L.A. has wins in 11 of its last 14 games at home and currently sits securely in the third spot in the Pacific Division. However, that's where my love for this group stops, because two straight convincing losses overall and an inability to get points against this hungry Avalanche team over their last 10 meetings (Colorado is 8-1-1 in last 10 against L.A.) has me feeling comfortable about laying a wager on Jared Bednar's group on the road tonight. Colorado continues to dominate the Kings and secure their postseason positioning.

Silver Selection

Nashville Predators @ Winnipeg Jets – Pick: UNDER 6.5 (-210)

I just couldn't round out the regular season of Saturday Dobber Hockey bets without focusing on a total. This is my favorite one of the year in a situation where I truly feel the playoff implications and postseason-like atmosphere will result in dueling goalies with a lot on the line. Sure, Juuse Saros (31-21-7) has been a bit disappointing at times, but his second-half performance has been much more in line with his Vezina-level potential. On the other end, Connor Hellebuyck (34-25-2, 2.57 GAA, and .918 SV%) has been the Jets savor this campaign, coming up huge on a number of occasions while posting very similar numbers to Saros.

The last three meetings between these two Western wild-card hopefuls have all stayed UNDER the number and I expect that to happen once again with even more on the line this time around. Most books have this number sitting at 5.5 or even at 6, so I am liking the buffer of teasing this number up to 6.5 for reduced odds. Sure, -210 is a heavy number, so toss this into a parlay with my Gold pick above and Bronze below and let's make this final regular-season Saturday a profitable one.

Bronze Selection

Florida Panthers @ Washington Capitals – Pick: Panthers ML (-160)

I mentioned a few weeks ago that if the Florida Panthers could get a little goaltending that I just really wasn't fully buying into the Pittsburgh Penguins as a playoff team, even via a wild-card berth. Lo and behold, Alex Lyon comes out of nowhere to literally catapult the Cats into the first wild-card position ahead of both the Pens and New York Islanders. In relief of Sergei Bobrovsky, who is battling an illness, Lyon has been absolutely sensational, posting a 6-1-0 record, .938 SV%, and one shutout over his last seven starts.

Not only has Florida been far and away the better team over the past two weeks, they also have their season on the line, something that cannot be said for the Washington Capitals, who were just eliminated from playoff contention for only the fourth time since Alex Ovechkin entered the league in 2005-06.

This one isn't exactly complicated, I am riding with the much hotter hand, one with something to play for, and one that also has excellent recent trend data behind it as the Panthers actually own a 7-3-0 record over their last 10 meetings with Washington. Florida has also been solid on the road winning five of its last seven away from home and I expect all of those trends to continue as the Panthers further their hold on the top wild-card spot.

Side Bets

Philadelphia Flyers @ New York Islanders – Pick: UNDER 5.5 (+100)

New Jersey Devils @ Boston Bruins – Pick: Devils ML (+115)

St. Louis Blues @ Minnesota Wild – Pick: Wild ML (-236)

Flip Livingstone is an NHL betting and fantasy hockey writer and podcast host with past experience at outlets such as theScore NHL, Narcity Media, Postmedia, and Hockey Night in Canada. You can follow him on Twitter @Flips_Picks.

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Brad Hayward's Picks

There were no games on Good Friday, but a full slate Saturday – yes, all 32 teams are in action.   And there are games, and then very critical games.  In the East, two of three wild-card wannabes will make the playoffs, and no they won't go 9-0 (collectively) through the end of three schedules.  Buffalo, with five games remaining, is still mathematically alive but needs too much help to be realistic.   

Out West, it seems clearer because there will be head-to-head matches for the only remaining spot.  Calgary, presently 9th, stayed in the hunt with a 3-1 win over Winnipeg Wednesday.  Nashville, presently 10th, visits the same Jets tonight.  The Preds do control their destiny, but they also have the most difficult road.  After a 7-6-1 past 14 contests, they'll likely need to score wins over both the Jets and Flames, then they'll face Minnesota and Colorado to close the season. Too much.  And thus…

Season Stats

(Last week 4-2-0)
Gold: 9-5-0
Silver: 7-6-1
Bronze: 8-6-0
Side bets: 27-12-0
Overall Saturday record: 51-29-1

Gold Selection

Nashville Predators @ Winnipeg Jets – Pick: Jets to win (-165 ML)

Oh no, Winnipeg has been no better over the closing few weeks, 7-7-0 and inconsistent enough to have allowed Seattle to clinch the first wild-card position. It's not at all to blame Connor Hellebuyck, who has manned his net for all of the last 10 games and has posted a 2.39 GAA over the past month.  Before last Friday, the combined output of goals scored by top forwards Mark Scheifele, Pierre-Luc Dubois, Kyle Connor, and Blake Wheeler was two – since March 12th.  And Josh Morrissey, no goals.  Neal Pionk, one. The 6-1 thrashing of the New Jersey Devils on April 2 seemed almost out of character!  The Jets need their best players to be better.  

For Nashville, Juuse Saros has dominated five of his last seven starts with save percentage over .950, but also has two RBS (really bad starts).  But their entire first line – Filip Forsberg, Ryan Johansen, and Matt Duchene, along with do-everything Roman Josi are all out, and I believe that's a hurdle just too high.   

Silver Selection

Tampa Bay Lightning @ Ottawa Senators – Pick:  Brady Tkachuk Under 3.5 SOG (+115)

The Lightning don't give up 11 goals over two games very often, and they know it's April. We've watched them shut down games all too often over the last three years, and I'd put my faith not just in Andrei Vasilevskiy, but the entire defense corps, and clearing Brady away from the blue paint should be assignment number one. See also side bet below. 

Bronze Selection

Florida Panthers @ Washington Capitals – Pick: Over 7 goals scored (+100)

Free-for-all. Desperate-for-a-win Florida against the Caps in spoiler mode. Alex Ovechkin (if he plays, currently a game-time decision) gets two, Matthew Tkachuk answers, and the last of maybe nine scores wins this one. 'Nuff said.

Side Bets

Nashville @ Winnipeg: over 5.5 goals scored (-120). It makes far more sense that the goaltending shows up here, but that's why we all differ and bet.  

Chris Tanev: at least 2 blocks vs. Vancouver (-120)

Tampa Bay to cover -1.5 goals vs Ottawa (+160)

Brad Hayward writes a weekly DFS column for Dobber Hockey and is a recently-retired surgeon.  Message him @dokhockey.