Top 10 Potential Surprise Playoff Performers
Tom Collins
2023-04-10
With only a few days left in the regular season, many fantasy general managers are looking forward to avenging their poor regular season by winning their playoff pools. Or if you won the championship, you’re looking to continue your dominance.
Of course, playoff pools are a little trickier than regular season fantasy leagues. There’s generally no waiver wire, the number of games can range from four to 28 per team, and players are much more likely to play with a broken jaw, cracked ribs, or a hole in their lung.
However, the key to winning your playoff pool is not only to choose players from teams that go deep, but grabbing those surprise players late in the draft. Think back to last season, when Frank Vatrano had 13 points for the Rangers, only three behind teammate Artemi Panarin, while Ondrej Palat of the Lightning was 10th in the playoffs for points.
With the NHL postseason starting next Monday, April 17, many of us will be conducting our playoff pools on the weekend, but it’s never too early to start planning for your draft.
Below are 10 players who have the potential to be surprise players for this postseason. These are generally players that wouldn’t be taken in the top six or seven picks from their own squad. Note there will only be a maximum of one player per team, and we won’t be looking at any players on teams that haven’t yet clinched.
10. Calle Jarnkrok
I talked about Jarnkrok last week when I filled in for Dobber for the ramblings last Monday, but he also deserves a mention here. In my experience, Leaf players are drafted high and plentiful in NHL playoff drafts, so the top players will go quickly, as well as the more well-known names (Ryan O’Reilly for example). However, Jarnkrok could be a sneaky pick if you expect the Leafs to go more than seven games. Before he missed Saturday’s game with a minor injury, Jarnkrok was lining up with Auston Matthews. He could be that third-line player who plays a top-six role often in a postseason.
9. Mark Stone
You’ll have to check on his injury status before your draft, but it wouldn’t be a surprise if he is Kucherov’d and made it back for the first game of the playoffs after a significant injury cost him many regular season games. Stone is already skating, but injuries have limited him to 43 games. Many won’t be willing to take a chance on him, although he usually manages to play the majority of his postseason games and has played at least 19 postseason games in three of the last four seasons.
8. Bowen Byram
There’s no doubt that Byram is super talented and would have a couple of 40-point seasons by now if he could stay healthy. He missed both Colorado games on the weekend with an illness and has only played 39 games this year. However, in those 39 games, he has 10 goals and 23 points. His 0.26 goals per game were tied for fourth in the league heading into Sunday’s action among all defensemen with at least 10 games played, and not that far off the leader (Erik Karlsson at 0.29). Byram’s 0.59 points per game were ranked 34th. He could collect a point every two playoff games.
Despite a recent slump that saw him go pointless in eight of nine games (a streak he snapped on Saturday against Chicago), Tolvanen has been one of the more productive Kraken since he was dealt to Seattle in December. Since January 1, Tolvanen has 16 goals (second on the team to Jared McCann) and 26 points (tied for seventh). Even through his most recent downswing, Tolvanen was still on the top power-play unit and is used in a top-six role.
It’s been a massive disappointment of a season for Klingberg and anyone who has him in a fantasy league, but his trade to Minnesota has somewhat saved his season. He missed three games in March with an upper-body injury, but he has four points in five games since returning, and eight points in 14 games with the Wild. He’s also taken over the power-play quarterback duties, on the ice for 73.3 per cent of the Wild’s man-advantage minutes. It’s even a little surprising he was this productive in Minnesota without Kirill Kaprizov around for most of it. Being able to give the puck to one of the league’s elite offensive players could lead to more points for Klingberg in the postseason.
His overall numbers don’t leap off the page, as he has 22 points in 51 games. He doesn’t have great previous postseason production, as he only played in two postseason games in his career. He’s not on a crazy hot streak; in fact, he’s the opposite, with only one point in nine games. So why would you consider drafting Byfield? It’s because of his line mates. He played the vast majority of the season with Anze Kopitar and Adrian Kempe, which has led to excellent advanced stats and possession numbers for the trio. Byfield has also shown the ability to go on a hot streak (before his current cold streak, he had nine points in 10 games).
4. Filip Chytil
It wouldn’t be any surprise to see 10 Rangers selected before Chytil. However, Chytil has been having a low-key decent season but is overshadowed by the superstars on the team, the two big trades, and the draft pedigree of his own linemates. His 45 points in 72 games is a 51-point pace and he’s averaging 2.3 shots per game. Chytil has six points in his last eight games and he centres the second power-play unit, making him slightly more valuable than his even-strength linemates of Kappo Kakko and Alexis Lafreniere.
Bertuzzi has eight points in his last six games, with four of them coming with the man advantage. Part of that has to do with the Bruins resting their top players, so Bertuzzi is playing a regular top-six role. While he may drop down to the third line once the postseason rolls around, someone has to stay on that second line with David Pastrnak and David Krejci. He’ll be competing with Taylor Hall and Pavel Zacha for that spot. Even if Bertuzzi is bumped to the third line, it will be one of those other two. With other teams focusing on stopping the top two lines, that will at least give Bertuzzi easier matchups.
Dadonov has been much better in Dallas than he was in Montreal. In 50 games with the Habs, he had 18 points, four on the power play while averaging 14:32 per night and not having consistent line mates. In 20 games with Dallas, he has 13 points, three of which with the man advantage. He’s also averaging 15:07 per game and is lining up alongside the rejuvenated Jamie Benn. Dadonov has been consistent in his short time in Dallas, only going three games without a point once.
1. Ondrej Palat
This one all depends on where he lines up. However, it’s important to note that the pairing of Timo Meier and Jack Hughes has been less than ideal. For the last few weeks, Meier has been pushed down to the third line, while Palat is on the top line with Hughes. Palat is still on the second power-play unit, but one thing he has going for him is the experience. He has the most playoff success of anyone on the team and will be relied upon heavily to lead by example. He also is a playoff beast, with 21 points in 22 postseason games a year ago, and 94 in 138 career playoff games. Overall, Palat’s first season with the Devils hasn’t been that productive, which makes him a great sneaky pick for the postseason.