Welcome back to Forum Buzz, where I peruse the DobberHockey Forums and weigh in on active, heavily debated, or otherwise relevant recent threads, reminding folks just how great a resource the Forums are. Nearly anything might be covered here, other than trades and signings, which usually get their own separate write-ups on the main site and are also normally covered in the next day’s Ramblings, or questions that are specific to salary cap issues, which is the domain of the weekly Capped column. To access the specific forum thread on which a question is based, click on the “Topic” for that question.

Topic #1 – In an eight team league with categories of G, A, PTS, PIM, PPP, SHP, GWG, SOG, FW, HIT, BLK, W, GAA, SV%, SO, who should the six keepers be from this list:

F – Kirill Kaprizov, David Pastrnak, Andrei Svechnikov, Drake Batherson, Dylan Larkin, Mathew Barzal, Vladimir Tarasenko, Mark Stone, Evgeni Kuznetsov, Sam Reinhart, Vincent Trocheck, Teuvo Teravainen, Taylor Hall, Andrei Burakovsky, Troy Terry, Cater Verhaeghe, Alexei Lafreniere, Eeli Tolvanen, Dawson Mercer, Ivan Barbashev
D – Miro Heiskanen, Mikhail Sergachev, Thomas Chabot, Erik Karlsson, Ivan Provorov, Brandon Montour, Jonathan Toews.
G – Juuse Saros, Alexander Georgiev, Cam Talbot

A quick look at the math indicated that although roughly 250 players are owned, fewer than a fifth of those will be kept. What that likely means is every team will be forced to not keep some players it would otherwise prefer to retain. It also likely suggests that two for one deals will be tough to come by, if not impossible, and trades in general might be a difficult sell when every other team will likely have a surplus of keepable guys. So the reality likely is teams will keep six from what they already have, and let the rest go back into the draft for next season.

Who are the locks? Pasta and Kaprizov, and that's about it. My sense is keeping a goalie would be an unwise move for this league, as just four of 15 categories are goalie-related, and only two of them have to do with volume. So I feel few if any goalies will be kept by any of the teams. Thus, as good as Saros has started to look as the season unfolded, he's just not as valuable as a skater in this format.

The big question is what to do about Karlsson. He's been unbelievable; but he also isn't getting any younger and has dodged the injury bug. Despite what I said above, I might consider trying to trade him, as after all can his value ever be higher going foward? Maybe poolies will be hesitant to trade for him due to the concerns I listed. But I feel the team owes it to itself to see if he can be moved to turn into someone like Elias Pettersson, Mitch Marner, Jason Robertson, or even a guy like Tim Stutzle or J.T. Miller, the latter being a monster in this format. If a trade cannot be made, then just keep Karlsson and hope this wasn't a one season fluke.

Should another defenseman be kept, or perhaps even more than one more? I don't trust Montour to have suddenly morphed into a top tier d-man at his age and given his track record; and even though Chabot is strong in multicat, it looks like he's going to lose points to one or both of Jakub Chychrun and Jake Sanderson. As for Sergachev, after a mid-season rough patch he does seem to be seizing the reins once and for all from Victor Hedman. Heiskanen is at perhaps more valuable than Sergachev because he's the unquestioned top guy in Dallas, and younger. Let's consider Heiskanen and/or Sergachev as maybes for now.

As for other forwards, although Svechnikov's scoring – as I predicted – has not improved, he is still a monster in these categories, such that he needs to be kept. Either we stop there and have the keepers be Kaprizov, Pasta, Karlsson (or who he's traded for), Svechnikov, Heiskanen, and Sergachev, or we opt to let one of Sergachev and Heiskanen go and instead keep another forward. Looking at the other forwards, many are solid but I don't think any represent an upgrade over what Heiskanen and Sergachev would bring to the table. Plus, this way the team could put defensemen on the backburner at the draft, and focus instead on forwards, of which there will likely be several top end guys to grab. I'm indeed keeping Pasta, Svech, Kaprizov, Karlsson (or who he's traded for), Sergachev and Heiskanen.

Topic #2 – In a points only league where the GM is in no rush to be competitive, which three should be kept from the following: Alexis Lafreniere, Dawson Mercer, William Eklund, Matias Maccelli, Alexander Holtz, Jack Quinn, and Shane Wright?

Let's start with Lafreniere. Despite his recent scoring run it's quite possible that in his first three seasons by age 21 he'll not have averaged both 1.8+ SOG and over 0.5 points per game even once. Dating back to 1990-91, those criteria were also "achieved" by only three other wingers: Tom Wilson, Marco Sturm, and Danius Zubrus. The good news is all three managed to improve and have some solid seasons. The bad news is none were picked first overall nor were able to have prolonged significant success. Although past results are not indicative of the future, these comparables are not ideal for Laffy owners.

Mercer has come into his own as 2022-23 has unfolded, shooting and scoring more despite almost no PP time. Will that PP time come? Tough to say; although as we saw in the most recent edition of Goldipucks, Carter Verhaeghe has thrived in a top six role with hardly any PP time and, like Mercer, a solid IPP. I'd say Mercer is the safest bet, albeit with less home run potential than most.

Eklund didn't stick with the Sharks, but when recalled briefly in March was given ample ice time and performed pretty well. Yet he was summarily sent back down. While some might argue that was a good thing for Eklund to let him get more experience, one has to wonder what concerns the Sharks, who have nothing to lose by playing him a ton, have about keeping him in the NHL. Expectations should be tempered more so than they might've been this time last season, but he still could pan out well, as he's only 20 years old and the Sharks need scoring forwards.

Holtz is perhaps one of the biggest disappointments for 2022-23, as many expected him to star for the Devils, yet he's been in and out of the line-up when with the big club, not forcing the issue and not thriving in the AHL either. Still though, he put up nearly point per game numbers last season in the AHL at age 20, which says a lot. The Devils are suddenly deep and talented enough to not "need" Holtz as might've originally been envisioned, so to make his mark he'll need to prove himself beyond just showing up.

Quinn has played alongside Dylan Cozens and, at times while Alex Tuch was injured, with Tage Thompson. He hasn't put up big numbers, with a just okay overall IPP and terrible IPP on the PP, signifying that if he skated with talented guys he could get lost in the shuffle. He also isn't shooting the puck a lot and turns 22 before the start of next season. He's sort of the opposite of Eklund in that he's on a better team and getting a chance, but he's not making a huge splash.

Maccelli is an older rookie who's the least pedigreed of the bunch; but he's managed to produce well this season. Still, in Q3 despite posting 17 points in 21 games he managed only 19 SOG. In fact, his season-long SOG rate has hovered right around one per game, which, for a winger, is not going to lead to long-term success. I think it's safe to say he's benefitting from a situation where the Coyotes have no better options and the same circumstances might not exist come next season or beyond.

Lastly there's Wright, who went from potential first overall pick to surprisingly barely sniffing any NHL action this season. He also plays for Seattle, which, if this season is an indication, seems like they're going to be shaped as team where no player(s) are going to be huge stars or build-arounds but rather they'll try to mount a balanced attack of several lines that can score. Down the road Wright and Matty Beniers could be stars, but it could be a while, although this GM did say they have time.

Given the above, Mercer is the only lock, while Maccelli is the only definite no go. I think Wright should be one of the other two, as he's the youngest and still most likely to be a huge star. As for the last pick, it's either Eklund, given his opportunity, Quinn, given his team, or Laffy just because it's tough to cut bait on a former #1 overall pick. It's a tough call, but I think I'm going with Eklund, who I feel will figure things out and get a long look next season with the Sharks on his way to breaking out, not Laffy because of comparables and since Wright is already a gamble, and not Quinn due to there being a forward logjam in Buffalo and not great IPPs.

Topic #3 – In a 12 team, keep ten league with rosters of 12F, 5D, 2G, 7 and scoring of G/A/OTL (1), W(2), SO(3), a team has two of the top four picks for 2023, but isn't yet certain where those picks will be, but also picks 5-8 and 13. Players can be kept for five seasons, but "minors" keepers can be kept for free until the season after the reach 100 NHL games played. What would be the top six players – each of whom, other than Bedard, will be available due to not being able to be kept – in this format from this list: Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, Matthew Tkachuk, Connor Bedard, Kyle Connor, Sebastian Aho, Brayden Point, Juuse Saros, Mathew Barzal, Alex DeBrincat, Steven Stamkos, Victor Hedman, John Tavares, Jacob Markstrom?

Right up front let's address Bedard. With this team having six of the top eight picks and the caliber of players available, plus the ability to potential keep Bedard for seven seasons, I think unless they have the first overall pick he gets taken by another GM in that spot. Would I grab him if they do get to pick first overall? I would, as seven years is a long time and the players at the bottom of the list don't stand to be as impactful as Bedard could be.

Yes, I realize it's not set in stone that Bedard will be superb, and it's taken Connor McDavid a number of seasons to reach the heights he's at now; however, it'd be one thing if they had one or two of the top eight picks. But they have six, and after the first few guys, things drop of by a decent amount. I realize that if they pick Bedard first overall they likely lose out on one of the top guys; however, one huge key is the seven season factor. That is a long time to be able to own someone who could become one of the best players in the NHL in short order. Also, it's still a guarantee that in doing this they'll still get one of the "big" three of Matthews, Marner and Tkachuk. If there were only three top tier guys then maybe – maybe – I might rethink this. But with how things stand, it's Bedard who they should take first overall.

So they take Bedard first. If they happen to get the second overall pick, it'll be tough to decide who to grab. Until this season Matthews had seen his scoring increase with every campaign, so he is tempting. But there's no benefit to goal scoring, plus Marner is as consistent as they come, and Tkachuk has emerged as a legit top tier talent. My ranking of the three would be Marner first, followed by Matthews, then Tkachuk. The reasoning is keeping them for five years, I worry that Tkachuk's style of play will catch up to him quicker, whereas I could see Marner and Matthews staying this great for the entirety of the five seasons. Marner I like over Matthews because he is so reliable and elite, whereas Matthews I worry might be more likely to get hurt and if he loses his explosiveness his scoring could suffer.

I don't see a universe in which Bedard, Matthews, Marner and Tkachuk aren't gone after the first four picks. Who, then, would I grab in the 5-8 spots? One question is if they want to take an older player like Stamkos or Hedman and perhaps get solid numbers but for a shorter period of time. I'm going to say no, as Hedman's 2021-22 is looking more like a fluke season with each passing game, and Stamkos, as great as he is, might be starting to show his age.

Connor is a must have for me. With each passing season he seems more and more like a 90+ point downside player for the foreseeable future. After him though, it's forwards who are all groupable together, plus goalies. As I mentioned in my most recent mailbag, Aho, despite seeming like a point per game player and not more than that, would be at the 90 point mark this season were it not for unsustainable bad luck. He's also a year younger than Point, who I trust less to maintain his scoring, although it seems he's stepping into Stamkos' former shoes, such that what we're seeing this season from Point could be his new normal. I also believe Barzal, without Barry Trotz and with Bo Horvat, could rise to and even beyond the point per game level. Then there are the goalies, and in Saros and Markstrom you have ironclad starters who should still be doing well in five years time.

It's a tough call, but in the end my last three would be Point, as I do think Stamkos is slowing and Point is and will be the beneficiary, plus Aho, as point per game downside is pretty darn good. For the last spot, give me Saros. His 2022-23 has been subpar for him; however, going into this season he had the highest quality start percentage of any NHL goalie since he entered the NHL to go along with the lowest really bad start rate. That says a lot. I'm giving him a narrow edge over Barzal, who I think will be there when this team picks again 13th overall, whereas Saros likely won't be.

Topic #4 – Who's the pick in a points only league for 2023-24, Owen Power or Jake Sanderson?

This is an interesting question in that many – myself included – feel that Ottawa is poised to do in 2023-24 what the Sabres have done in 2022-23. For all the offense that the Sabres have generated, Power hasn't exactly lit it up. The issue is Rasmus Dahlin is an offensive monster, while Power is more of an all-around talent. It is worth noting though that in the two games Dahlin missed due to injury Power tallied two points. But when Dahlin went cold in March after returning, Power didn't step up his production. Don't get me wrong – I think that Power will rise to become a very solid producer sooner rather than later. But I'm just not sure what we'll get from him in 2023-24 will be that much different than what we've seen in 2022-23, as Power is not going to get PP1 time and doesn't really shoot the puck much yet. He's more of a work in progress for the time being.

Sanderson has played superb, but is hurt by the fact that Ottawa now has two very capable veteran d-men in Thomas Chabot and Jakub Chychrun. Or is he? Once Chychrun came on board but before he got injured, Sanderson's scoring actually rose, as did his minutes. And Sanderson also took the ice for more than 50% of his team's man advantage time in more March contests alone than he did in games for the entire season up to that point, with more than half of Sanderson's points having come on the man advantage. And, the last three rookie d-men who had at least as many PPPts as Sanderson has were Dahlin, Cale Makar and Quinn Hughes, which is some pretty fine company in which to find oneself.

What it boils down to is do you take the guy on the already established offensive juggernaut who has one big roadblock, or the less highly touted player who's done more this season and was being given very good deployment despite two top pairing d-men on his team, and that team being one which might make a big leap next season. I'm going with Sanderson, as he's done enough already and looked just fine after Chychrun arrived, plus this is just for 2023-24. If it was for a dynasty then it'd be a closer call, but for next season only give me Sanderson.

Topic #5 – In a league with skater categories of G, A, PPPts, FOW, HIT, BLK, a team is keeping Noah Dobson and Miro Heiskanen. Which other two should be kept: Tony DeAngelo, Hampus Lindholm, Devon Toews, Radko Gudas, or Juuso Valimaki?

One key is there is no SOG category, so that hurts DeAngelo, who is the clear leader in that area. I'm not saying he's out of the running; however, part of his lure is not a factor. In a similar vein, Toews and Lindholm's superb +/- ratings are inconsequential. Also, 40% of categories to which defensemen contribute are not scoring-related, which is a big chunk.

Let's tackle Gudas first. He still hits a ton, but his pace this season is down a bit from his norm. And unlike some d-men like Jacob Trouba and Darnell Nurse, he doesn't excel to the anywhere the same extent in BLK as he does in HIT. His scoring is pretty dismal. Also, he'll be 33 by the time next season roles around and with age comes more of a chance for injury, especially when you play the style he does. He's not one of my two picks. I'm also not going with Valimaki. He had a great third quarter of nearly point per game output, but I'm leery of someone who shoots as little as he does, as even though SOG isn't a category it still matters in terms of likely offensive output. Also, his better play since he arrived in Arizona is disguised by season-long stats. He strikes me more as a redraft.

DeAngelo has cooled considerably, and his ice time has dropped with each quarter. On the whole, however, he's still been productive, especially given the team he plays for. And he is a proven producer, plus is a PP QB. I like taking him and one of Lindholm and Toews, and if it was me, I'd opt for Lindholm as the other pick. Toews had a 75% secondary assist rate last season, helping explain why his numbers are far worse for 2022-23. But guess what – his secondary assist rate is still high at 64.9%, meaning he might somehow still be doing better than he should. I'm also concerned at the emergence of Bowen Byram. As for Lindholm, his story checks out better, as all those seasons in Anaheim he was on a subpar team and was not being deployed in an offensively favorable manner. Yes, Boston is aging and Charlie McAvoy is "the guy" on the blueline; however, Lindholm has more than amply shown he can provide a nice scoring punch despite the presence of McAvoy, and I like him to be able to succeed more so than Toews. So for me it's DeAngelo and Lindholm.

Topic #6 – In a weekly points only (goalies: two points for a win, one extra point for a shutout and one point for an overtime loss), keep eight, 19 player (9F, 4D, 2G, 4 Bench) league with a salary cap of $95M, who should the keepers (with their cost in parentheses) be from this list?

F – Nikita Kucherov ($9.5M), Kirill Kaprizov ($9.0M), David Pastrnak ($11.25M), Mikko Rantanen ($9.25M), Mason Raymond ($0.925M), Jordan Kyrou ($8.125M), Martin Necas ($3.0M), Travis Konecny ($5.5M), Timo Meier (RFA)
D – Roman Josi ($9.059M), Dougie Hamilton ($9.0M), Shea Theodore ($5.2M), Evan Bouchard (RFA), Jake Sanderson ($0.925M), Gustafsson (UFA)
G- Igor Shesterkin ($5.66M), Marc-Andre Fleury ($3.5M), Ilya Samsonov (RFA)

As was noted by person who posted the thread, if they were to simply keep what would be considered the "best" eight guys, that would be Kucherov, Pasta, Kaprizov, Rantanen. Josi, Hamilton, Theodore, and Shesterkin, at a cost of $67.9M, i.e., 71% of their available salary for only 42% of their total roster. And although I do feel that some owners in cap keepers are too worried about having a lot of salary tied up in just a few top end players, this would leave the team with $27.1M to spend on a total of 11 other players, for an average of $2.46M per player. And the issue is it's not like there will be lots of guys at the draft who are both rosterable and on cheap contracts, as they'll be needed by all teams for the same reason as they would be here, namely to offset expensive guys.

Two things that facilitate the decision-making is this being a points-only league plus the fact that forward positions don't matter. So it just boils down to comparing the players. First, let's rule out guys who are obvious non-keeps, which I'd say are Meier, who's going to get a huge payday as a UFA and is weakest a points only, Gustafsson, who did have a solid season but doesn't figure to be a big contributor for 2023-24, as well as Fleury, who I can't trust due to his age, and Samsonov, who might be due for a decent raise plus likely will remain in a time share in Toronto. That leaves a total of 14 players for the eight keepers spots. Right off the bat I'm keeping Shesterkin, as although the number of teams wasn't indicated he's as good as you can get these days for a goalie, and at a decent price.

That leaves 13 for seven spots. My forward ranking would be Kucherov, Pastrnak, Kaprizov, Rantanen, Kyrou, Necas, Konecny, and Raymond. For defensemen, it'd be in the order they're listed. Remember, this is just based on what I envision for scoring. Next is when I look at them with scoring plus salary in mind.

The big question is whether Pasta is good enough at that price versus the 90+ point downside of Kaprizov and Rantanen. I'd say no. Yes, Pasta would be a huge asset; but his price is just too high now in leagues not factoring in goals. Kucherov is a keep given that he's a superstar and seems to be fully past his injury issues of prior seasons. But are Kaprizov and Rantanen both keeps? Kaprizov is hurt by Minnesota's cap crunch, which, let's not forget, will still be felt the next two seasons, and we saw in 2022-23 that Kaprizov was indeed hurt by not having a capable center on his line. Yes, Marco Rossi might make the leap; however, I do not see a world in which two players under 5'10'' are on the same line with Kaprizoov, and we know Mats Zuccarello, with whom Kaprizov has excellent chemistry, isn't going anywhere soon. As for Rantanen, he is faring very well despite playing less with Nathan MacKinnon in 2022-23 than he had in any campaign since his breakout. Plus Gabriel Landeskog was MIA all season.

But can Pasta and Kaprizov really not be kept? I believe that Necas and Konecny have reached a level where they'd be good alternatives given how much less they make and what they've both shown this season. If there is a desire to keep Pasta or Kaprizov, then I think Raymond, who has not made the leap many expected, would need to be kept to offset the price tag. As for Kyrou, he's fine, but not cheap enough or great enough to be part of the conversation. In the end, I'm keeping Kucherov, Rantanen, Necas, and Konecny.

On defense, it's one or the other of Josi and Hamilton, but not both. The guy I'd let go is Hamilton, as although he looks superb this season the reality is he's never in his career strung together two great seasons, while Josi now looks like a 70-point downside d-man, which is huge. I agree with keeping Theodore, and the third d-man I'd keep is Sanderson, who, as noted above, was doing well even before Jakub Chychrun got hurt and seeing his ice time rise. I see a universe in which Sanderson gets the cushy minutes, while Chychrun and Thomas Chabot get leaned on for the tougher d-man duty. If Sanderson can get 40-45 points at that price, he's gold. What about Bouchard? It's tough to say, as I feel he could be due for a hefty raise. If he lands at $4M or less though, then I'd take him over Theodore.

The eight guys on my list are Kucherov, Rantanen, Necas, Konecny, Josi, Theodore, Sanderson and Shesterkin, unless Bouchard's deal is $4M or less, which would lead to him being swapped in for Theodore. Their collective price tag is $48.1M (or less with Bouchard), i.e., just about half the team's cap space. I like where that would leave the team, as yes they're down a likely 100+ points from where they'd figured to be if they just kept the eight best guys; however, I feel that those points will be recouped via better other players given that the team would have nearly $20M more to spend on its remaining ten players.

Topic #7 – What's the story with Tommy Novak? Is his success just a by-product of the lack of top tier talent on Nashville right now, or is he shaping up to be a potential late blooming success like Carter Verhaeghe?

I think most of us were guilty of downplaying Novak's success at the outset, given his age and lack of pedigree. But he's done well enough for long enough that we have to seriously entertain the notion that he is the real deal. Yes, Novak didn't have a stellar college career; and plenty of other players had fared as well as he did – for as long as he did – in the AHL yet never were able to translate that to sustained NHL success. There's also the reality that both Ryan Johansen and Filip Forsberg are currently out of the line-up with injuries, leaving the Preds far more willing than normal to bestow top six and PP time upon those who might otherwise have been on the outside looking in. On the surface, Novak looks like he could be written off because of these factors working against him.

But a closer look shows Novak was faring well even before he was put in the best position to do so, such that he might've forced Nashville to do what they're doing with him even if everyone was still in the line-up. Need proof? He tallied eight points in his first 10 games without taking the ice for more than 13:23 in any of the contests and only two of those points coming on the PP. Even after he followed that with a stretch of five scoreless contents, the Preds stuck with Novak, and he rewarded them with even better production, culminating in his sustained stretch of more than point per game production.

How do his metrics look? His overall IPP is above 70%, which is so key to see. His secondary assist rate is solid. His OZ% is above 60%; however, that is not abnormal in terms of today's NHL, especially on a team like Nashville that is starved for offense from its top six. Even if we put less stock in his nine goals on 32 SOG in Q3, he'd still have eight in 28 contests, for a pace that would put him above 25 for a full season.

Given his team and what he's done, a top six spot seems like a lock for 2023-24, with a pretty long leash. Would I trade for him right now, or in the offseason? Probably not, as those who were astute enough to grab him from the free agent pool are likely smitten and will command a price in return that bakes in this same level of success, which, although possible, is far from a guarantee. In one year leagues, I'd probably let someone else reach for him, since even though he's looked great, this is Nashville we're talking about, a team which has had a grand total of just 21 forwards in the previous 21 seasons play in 40+ games while averaging 0.8 points per game, with more than half coming during 2000-01 to 2009-10. Of those 21, only four managed point-per-game numbers, and just one above 1.1 points per game. In other words, it's the same leopard with the same spots, and players as skilled or more so than Novak were all held back by virtue of playing for the Preds, as could be Novak once he tries to replicate this success over the course of a full season in 2023-24.

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Questions for Mailbag column needed

The upcoming edition of my monthly mailbag has plenty of room for questions. To get yours to me, you can either private message “rizzeedizzee” via the DobberHockey Forums, or send an email to [email protected] with “Roos Mailbag” as the subject line.