Welcome back to The Journey, where we track the development of prospects as they excel in junior, make the NHL, and push towards stardom.

I had envisioned this article being a general survey of rookie performances in 2022-23—who surprised, who disappointed—but one name in particular just kept popping up for me: Wyatt Johnston (DAL).

The thing is, except for Johnston and a few other surprises, the narrative around the Calder race remained relatively unchanged from start to finish. Many rookies did well and were expected to do so. Of course, no one exceeded 60 points and only one player even hit 50, so there were no truly exceptional campaigns in terms of raw production.

But there is clearly a ton of promise here, and Johnston's achievements are especially notable given that he is still 19 years old, the second-youngest player in the crop aside from Juraj Slafkovsky. Plus, he scored 21 of his 24 goals at even strength playing only 15 minutes a night.

The Dallas forward did not even crack my Top 25 Calder Candidates list in the preseason guide, which gave preference to pro-level experience. I did not think he stood a chance of even making the Stars directly out of junior, let alone excel like he has. His campaign was so impressive that I want to spend some time highlighting it here and speculating about his eventual ceiling.

Before we get to that, here are the 25 players I included instead as contenders for the top rookie award, in alphabetical order with their 2022-23 NHL games played and scoring totals listed (stats from other leagues in italics):

Calen Addison (MIN): 29 points in 62 games

Matty Beniers (SEA): 57 in 80

Jonatan Berggren (DET): 28 in 67 / 7 in 7 (AHL)

Mavrik Bourque (DAL): 46 in 68 (AHL)

Pavel Dorofeyev (VGK): 9 in 18 / 17 in 32 (AHL)

William Eklund (SJS): 3 in 8 / 41 in 54 (AHL)

Dylan Guenther (ARI): 15 in 33 / 29 in 20 (WHL)

Dylan Holloway (EDM): 9 in 51 / 8 in 10 (AHL)

Alexander Holtz (NJD): 4 in 19 / 11 in 14 (AHL)

Kent Johnson (CBJ): 39 in 79

Matias Maccelli (ARI): 49 in 64

Mason McTavish (ANA): 43 in 80

Jakob Pelletier (CGY): 7 in 24 / 36 in 34 (AHL)

Cole Perfetti (WPG): 30 in 51

Scott Perunovich (STL): 17 in 20 (AHL)

John-Jason Peterka (BUF): 32 in 77

Owen Power (BUF): 35 in 79

Lukas Reichel (CHI): 15 in 23 / 47 in 52 (AHL)

Nicholas Robertson (TOR): 5 in 15 / 2 in 2 (AHL)

Marco Rossi (MIN): 1 in 19 / 50 in 51 (AHL)

Jake Sanderson (OTT): 32 in 77

Juraj Slafkovsky (MON): 10 in 39

Jordan Spence (LAK): 1 in 6 / 43 in 54 (AHL)

Jack Quinn (BUF): 37 in 75

Shane Wright (SEA): 2 in 8 / 37 in 20 (OHL)

I could easily find a way to fit Johnston in hindsight, but there were very few disappointing seasons from this crop in 2022-23. Robertson increasingly looks like an injury liability, Rossi continues to struggle to produce at the highest level, Slafkovsky struggled and then got injured, and Holtz once again couldn't stick with New Jersey, but there are lots of positive signs even with these four. Most of these players already look like important pieces of their respective teams.

Matty Beniers, 20, the preseason Calder favourite, indeed led the way all year and will likely claim the award. His 57 points in 80 games paced all first-year players, and he also lived up to his billing as a forward with elite two-way potential. His off-the-charts defensive impact created offensive opportunities for his teammates left and right. He battled hard, drew penalties, and scored big goals when it mattered. Future captain material.

He has a bafflingly low even-strength offensive Wins Against Replacement (WAR) score, and his two-way prowess could work against him in fantasy, but it sure looks like the Patrice Bergeron comparisons at the 2021 draft were not off base. That Offence WAR should improve, and this is a player who will power his team to victory, both on the scoresheet and in all three zones.

Matias Maccelli (ARI), 22, also kept things interesting at the top of the rookie scoring race. He played 16 fewer games than Beniers due to injury but only scored eight fewer points than his Kraken peer. His full-season pace would have landed him with 63 points and the rookie scoring title. For context, that is Matt Boldy, Pierre-Luc Dubois, and Trevor Zegras territory. In other words, this kid has already joined the upper echelon of NHL playmakers.

Cole Perfetti (WPG), 21, also dealt with injuries this year but paced for just under 50 points. He already excels at threading high-danger passes and generating scoring chances at an above-average rate. Perfetti is especially deadly when he carries the puck across the blue line and gets set up in the offensive zone. He only received 33% of Winnipeg's available power play time but has a skillset made for playing with the man advantage. PP time has long been at a premium for the Jets but Perfetti's time will come.

Other top rookie forwards who made a significant mark in 2022-23 include Mason McTavish (ANA), Kent Johnson (CBJ), Jack Quinn (BUF), Shane Pinto (OTT), Kirill Marchenko (CBJ), and Dylan Guenther (ARI). It would not be surprising to see all of these players turn in a 30+ goal season in the next year or two. They are top-of-the-lineup players and valuable fantasy assets.

This year's crop also included a number of solid middle-six types like Noah Cates (PHI), Rafael Harvey-Pinard (MON), Paul Cotter (VGK), and Mason Shaw (MIN) who offer enticing blends of scoring and peripherals. All four saw limited top-line action and proved that they can slot in effectively up and down the lineup.

On the back end, Owen Power (BUF), Jake Sanderson (OTT), and Calen Addison (MIN) led the way—all averaging about half-a-point per game and playing key roles for their respective teams. Power and Sanderson stepped up directly out of college and delivered immediately on their significant potential, playing big minutes in all situations. Moving forward, it should be safe to expect both players to push past the 40-point barrier as early as next year while generating a ton of peripherals by playing 22+ minutes a night.

Addison stormed out of the gates and racked up a ton of power play points before his defensive issues led to a string of healthy scratches down the stretch. The scratches are concerning and have me considering trade options for him in the offseason. If you can find a dance partner who remembers first-half Addison more than the recent bench-locked version, it could be worth exploring potential returns. My guess is that he eventually carves out a Torey Krug-like career and remains an elite source of PPP but there is a risk he ends up being fairly one-dimensional in fantasy.

In net, Stuart Skinner (EDM) stands alone at the top, with Logan Thompson (VGK), Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen (BUF), and Pyotr Kochetkov (CAR) a step below. Skinner stole the crease from incumbent Jack Campbell and is peaking just as the McDavid-led Oilers seem to be putting it all together. Thompson faded after a hot start, then went down with an injury. He looks set to face a battle with former Golden Knights starter Robin Lehner in 2023-24, while UPL will fight to hold off Devon Levi as the Sabres goalie of the future and Kochetkov will push to win the top job in Carolina.

Okay, can I gush about Johnston yet?

Wyatt Johnston, 19, tied Beniers for the rookie goal lead (playing 1:30 less per game) and fell one shot short of McTavish for the lead in shots taken. He is a scrappy, opportunistic player with silky hands and a wicked shot.

The crowd with a little "oooo ahhhhh" on this Wyatt Johnston move https://t.co/hYskw1eH2M pic.twitter.com/vTvqbhPkoT

— Saad Yousuf (@SaadYousuf126) April 8, 2023

Here he is looking poised in the challenging bumper slot, scoring a critical PP goal against St. Louis:

WYATT JOHNSTON scores a crucial goal for the Dallas Starspic.twitter.com/FT9Br7HpvP

— The Colosseum – On-Chain Sports Betting (@Colosseum_so) April 13, 2023

The Stars stapled him to the ghost of Jamie Benn this year and Bam! He resurrected the former Art Ross winner into point-per-game territory for the first time since 2017-18.

Jamie Benn ties the game at 1-1 on the brilliant feed from Wyatt Johnston #texashockey pic.twitter.com/SPjrn8fKux

— Alex Micheletti (@AlexMicheletti) February 18, 2023

Johnston posted a 74% overall WAR as a rookie, which means he is already in the top quarter of players in terms of overall impact on his team's success. He creates chances by voraciously recovering pucks and winning quick positioning battles, then firing off high-danger passes to his teammates (ie. Jamie Benn 33 times).

BENN TO JOHNSTON TO DELLANDREA FOR A SILKY GOAL!!! 🚨 #TexasHockey pic.twitter.com/GLBEO88oUy

— Nathan "Grav" (@NathanGraviteh) November 29, 2022

Plus he finishes at a high rate and excels at kicking off transitions by maintaining possession into the neutral zone. His high Individual Points Percentage (IPP) suggests he is heavily involved in the offence while on the ice, meaning his production is sustainable and should only improve from here. In an ideal world, he would hit more for fantasy purposes (only 22) but the shots are great.

I have the pleasure of owning Johnston in a deep cap league, where he will cost me under a million bucks until 2025. Absolutely deadly cap league own. Most rookies don't post 20 goals and 40 points in the first year of their Entry Level Contract. How many points might he score in 2024-25 after another full season of development? Is it too much to hope for 70?

That brings us to his eventual ceiling. Because he lost an entire year of development due to the OHL COVID cancellation in 2020-21, which messes with his profile in the Hockey Prospecting model, Johnston's draft year comparables are a who's who of nobodies. Plus, even though he blew the doors off last year in the OHL and led the league in scoring (46 NHLe), then transitioned smoothly to the NHL this year (39 NHLe), he still only has a 9% chance of becoming a Star Producer because those achievements came a year later than they generally do from star-level players at his stage in development.

Would he have been able to put up 124 points in 68 games in his true Draft season? It is impossible to say but his Draft-1 totals (30 in 53) are not incredible—Perfetti (2020), for instance, put up 74 in 63 the year before he got drafted, which is not uncommon among high-level prospects. Such an explosion from one year to the next does not seem likely but is not unheard of either. Still, his production in his Draft+1 speaks for itself, and his performance this year as an NHL rookie carries even more weight.

It would not surprise me if Johnston's production levels off for a year or two (say, mid-50s) and then spikes into the 70s after that. Players like him who make the NHL and succeed early sometimes run into a wall and struggle for a couple years to even maintain their rookie performance let alone better it.

But having seen him live at a game back in March against the Canucks (he scored), I can confirm with my own eyes that he plays a quick, confident game and has a quiet swagger that reminds me of skill players like Jack Hughes and Trevor Zegras. When he has the puck, it looks like he could dangle past a defender at any moment. Or pull off a Michigan.

One of the many reasons I love hockey, ⁦⁦@expomick⁩ My kid holds up a sign asking Wyatt Johnston to "Do the Michigan" With a huge smile on his face as he skates by, he then does this. After the video stopped he came back by with a huge smile on his face. pic.twitter.com/r3ozT1mSQ1

— flyboy1990 (@flyboy19901) April 14, 2023

One factor that could potentially limit his production is usage: he fits so well down with Benn and Ty Dellandrea down on the third line that he may not see as much exposure to superstar Jason Robertson, for instance, as his fantasy managers would like. Perhaps that is a red flag you can wave in front of his owner to help pry him away at a cheaper price. I am not overly concerned. If it takes him a couple years to hit 70+, so be it. I can wait.

Thanks for reading! Follow me on Twitter @beegare for more prospect content and fantasy hockey analysis.