Eastern Edge: Fantasy Awards For Beasts Of The East Including Jack Hughes, Brady Tkachuk, And More
Ryan Brudner
2023-04-18
It's award season! Well, it's actually playoff hockey season which started out with a bang last night. It's not a bad time to look back at the fantasy hockey season that was and give out some awards though. I'll also toss in some outlook for next season as well. Hope you enjoy!
Fantasy MVP
Centre – Jack Hughes (Season Rank 11, ADP 83.4,)
Jack Hughes took a huge leap this year. He missed some games from injury, but still finished with career highs in goals (43), assists (56), points (99), Shots (336), and power play points (31). His shot rate increased tremendously this season, ranking 4th in shots per game, only behind Nathan MacKinnon, David Pastrnak, and Auston Matthews. It was concerning that this dipped under four shots per game once he was paired with Timo Meier though, so we will see what the Devils look like next season. I would be excited to draft Hughes in the 10-15 range next season and would expect him to eclipse 100 points. Don't expect any hits though.
Left Wing – Brady Tkachuk (Season Rank 9, ADP 29.2)
Brady is a bangers star. Two seasons ago, his hit rate was a whopping 4.4 per game. Last year it dropped to 3.4. This year, we saw another drop to 2.9. Though, in these years of declining hits, shots, goals, and assists, have been increasing. Tkachuk finished one better than a point per game this year and finished with 4.23 shots per game. He was close to five shots per game in the final month of the season. The decline in hits was the likely result of he and the Sens improving defensively. I do think this is close to the ceiling for Tkachuk. He can push for 40 goals, 90 points, 360 shots, and 200 hits next season. That's good enough for a first-round pick in my books.
Right Wing – David Pastrnak (Season Rank 3, ADP 24.2)
Pastrnak is another player that decided to post career highs across the board. He even finished with 407 shots on goal, just .04 short of five shots per game. With the increased shooting, his shooting percentage (15%) wasn't even inflated hovering close to his career average (14.2%). With the big extension signed, Pasta should keep shooting as the rest of the bruins age out. We will need to see what the Bruins look like next year; he may have a tougher time reaching the same point total without the same team makeup.
Defense – Rasmus Dahlin (Season Rank 4, ADP 78.1)
Dahlin took a huge step along with Buffalo's young offense this year. Dahlin was looking like he could get to 100 points with a super hot first half. He simmered down a bit, finishing with 73 points in 78 games, but he's still the MVP with respectable totals in Hits (105) and Blocks (132). Next season, I wouldn't count on the slumping Dahlin of late to continue. There could even be another level to this 23-year-old defenseman. As the Sabres improve as a young team, I could see Dahlin eclipsing a point per game for an entire season. I'd be happy to draft him as the 3rd or 4th overall defenseman next year.
Goalie – Linus Ullmark (Season Rank 1, ADP 146.3)
This is unquestioned as the likely Vezina winner provided strong goaltending week-in-week out. He had a Quality Start % of 85.7% and only 2 Really Bad Starts all season. This resulted in 24/25 Quality Weeks and ZERO Really Bad Weeks. He also led the league in Star Weeks, crushing fantasy goalie categories 64% of the time. This guy did not disappoint fantasy owners in any week of the season. I don't know if that has ever happened before, or will ever happen again for a fantasy goaltender. Don't expect the Bruins to be as strong next year. We'll see Ullmark's consistency go down a bit, but he has always kept his Really Bad Starts to a minimum. We'll see what the Bruins do this offseason, but I'd be happy taking Ullmark if he falls to the 6th round. The fact that he'll be in a tandem might scare some people away.
Second Half Stars
These players really took a step in the second half of the season. This could be a marker for how they may play for the entire season next year.
Tim Stützle – After scoring at an 80-point pace at the start of the season, Stützle stepped it up scoring at a 100-point pace in the second half. We should see him eclipse that total next season as Ottawa improves. He also got his shot rate up above three shots a game in the second half from 2.2 shots per game in the first. Here's my prediction for Stützle in 2023-24: 45 goals, 60 assists, 105 points, 36 power play points, 285 shots, 125 hits.
Dawson Mercer – Mercer finished with 31 points in the last 41 games, and actually had 27 points in his last 32 games, good for a 69-point pace. If he can line up with Jack Hughes next season, he could see that point pace sustained over the entire season. If he takes a step and gets time on Power Play 1, there is potential for a big breakout next season. I'll be taking Mercer as a sleeper and breakout candidate next year; especially if Meier doesn't stick around.
Jesperi Kotkaniemi – He finished the season with 23 points in his last 31 games, good for a 60-point pace. He increased his shot rate to finish the season as well. He is not real breakout candidate, given the lack of skills, but he can be a sneaky sleeper in deep leagues.
Evan Bouchard – Bouchard was highly touted as a breakout candidate before the season and was drafted and rostered heavily throughout the season, even while he wasn't putting up any valuable numbers watching Tyson Barrie eat power play assists on PP1. Well it was better late than never. Bouchard finished the season with 11 points, five on that potent PP1, in his last 12 games. He looked great scoring a goal in last nights game against the Kings and should flourish on the league's best power play next season as there is no Tyson Barrie in his way. I'll be drafting him as a huge breakout candidate next season. He has the potential to get 70+ points. Again, this was said about him last summer, but now there really isn't competition for the power play spot.
Bangers Studs
I'd like to give a shoutout, and awards, to the Hits and Blocks leaders. These guys might hurt you in most categories, but if you are in a category league, or a banger heavy points league, these guys are very valuable.
Radko Gudas – Banger King – Each year, he really is the bangers stud to own. He averaged 4.33 hits per game and had a respectable 1.72 blocks per game. He also had more shots (150) than any other player in the top 10 for hits.
Luke Schenn – The league leader in hits (318) this season played top line minutes in Vancouver with Quinn Hughes, padding his secondary assist total. He actually tied his career high in points this season (22). It is a shame he was traded to the Leafs at the deadline. He had only 1 point in his 15 games for them and his ice time went down by 4 minutes per game, leading to less hits as well. It will be interesting to see where he lands next season.
Jacob Trouba – Trouba got close to 200 shots, hits and blocks last season (204, 207, 177) to go along with 39 points. He declined in the point department this year, posting only 30, but made up for it with a slight increase in blocks and hits. He just had 199 shots, 218 hits, and 196 blocks. In leagues that count blocks, he's a category monster. Can he reach the triple 200 club??
Moritz Seider – This is the only other player I could see reaching the triple 200 club. And he could do it with 50+ points as well. He had a small sophomore slump in points, going from 50 points last season to 42 this season. He also took less shots, going from 187 to 140. Though, his hits climbed from151 to 207 and his blocks climbed from 161 to 190. As this 22-year-old grows and becomes the trusted number 1 D man, he could join the triple 200 club, while also putting up 55-65 points. In leagues that count blocks and hits, that would likely make him a top 5 fantasy defenseman.
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