With the 2022-23 regular season officially in the rearview mirror, thoughts have shifted toward the 2023-24 campaign. And although there's huge satisfaction in drafting or owning a proven scorer, perhaps the best feeling in fantasy hockey is to latch onto a player right before he has a huge breakout. When is that that breakout most likely to occur? Here at DobberHockey we rely upon the tried and true "breakout threshold" of 200 games (for most forwards) or 400 games (for most d-men as well as for forwards with larger or smaller frames).

With that in mind, I've assembled a list of 20 forwards who are just past the 200-game mark or should hit it in 2023-24. Yes, for simplicity I'm sticking with just forwards who are expected to break out right at or around the 200-game mark, i.e., sometime next season, or, as in a couple of cases, those who due to their larger size might fit the 400-game mold but for whom I feel there is a realistic shot they break out closer to game 200 instead.

Your job is to vote for any and all you think will indeed experience a major breakout in 2023-24. What defines a major breakout? It depends on how they've fared to date, as someone who's already hit 50+ points in a season likely would need to be at or near a point per game to earn your vote, while for someone yet to even score a point per every other game they'd need to achieve a 60+ point scoring rate. So with that in mind, if you think each of the 20 will indeed make a big leap, then by all means vote for every one of them. Otherwise, vote for as many as you think will do so. Note that to make things more interesting, I omitted anyone who has already scored at a 65+ point pace at least on season in his career to date.

Here are the 20 voting choices, listed alphabetically along with their total number of career games played and their best career season scoring pace to date. A link to place your votes will appear at the end of the column.

Alexander Barabanov (Career games played = 160; Best Career Scoring Rate = 57)

His scoring rate has improved by double digits in each of his seasons, and he seems to have a spot on PP1 locked up. He does turn 29 in June; however, that means he's more within his peak than most on this list, which might aid in him making the leap next season.

Ross Colton (Career games played = 190; Best Career Scoring Rate = 40)

Yes, he's yet to post better than point per every other game numbers; however, he averaged nearly 20 goals per season over the last two campaigns, and in Tampa you never know who will be the next player to ascend to fantasy heights.

Morgan Frost (Career games played = 158; Best Career Scoring Rate = 47)

He pretty much ran either red-hot or ice-cold this season. Sometimes that can be a prelude to finding consistency or to more frequent hot streaks and fewer cold spells. Next season will tell us a lot about Frost's trajectory.

Cody Glass (Career games played = 145; Best Career Scoring Rate = 40)

He might be large enough to need until game 400 to truly break out, but I'm still including him here because of what he showed as 2022-23 unfolded. There'd been concern the former sixth overall pick's career would be over before it really started. In 2022-23 he played nearly as many games as he had prior to this season, and took advantage of trades and injuries to log major minutes for the Preds, perhaps setting him up for even more success come 2023-24.

Barrett Hayton (Career games played = 176; Best Career Scoring Rate = 43)

The former fifth overall selection played at close to a point per game level over the second half of the season. As with Nick Schmaltz and Clayton Keller, it's no longer guaranteed that playing for the Yotes means one's numbers will be poor.

Seth Jarvis (Career games played = 150; Best Career Scoring Rate = 48)

Last season at this time Jarvis was wrapping up a rookie campaign with 18 points in 20 fourth quarter games. Fast forward to now, and he didn't even double those numbers for the entire 2022-23 season. His main issue is he plays for a team that has no shortage of capable offensive weapons, which is great if he can lock himself into the top six, but presents a barrier to doing so if he falters as he did this season.

Arthur Kaliyev (Career games played = 137; Best Career Scoring Rate = 41)

He too could arguably be a 400-gamer due to his size, but he plays more of a skilled game. With a SOG/60 that put him just outside the top 15 among forwards, it seems like only a matter of time until he explodes. When he had an audition alongside Anze Kopitar in 2022-23, he didn't deliver. Still, his offensive instincts should pay dividends, whether in 2023-24 or later.

Peyton Krebs (Career games played = 134; Best Career Scoring Rate = 32)

A key piece in the trade to bring Jack Eichel to Vegas, Krebs has somehow managed not to be benefitted by the offensive explosion in Buffalo this season. He's still young; however, him being unable to crack the top six is a concern. We'll see though how he fares once he gets to magical game 200.

Alexis Lafreniere (Career games played = 216; Best Career Scoring Rate = 39)

Another season, another failure by Laffy to come close to even remotely breaking out. Usually by now first overall picks have stepped up, while he's yet to do so. It might be that his 200-game breakout threshold will represent the last realistic shot he has of coming close to delivering on the promise he was once thought to have.

Anton Lundell (Career games played = 138; Best Career Scoring Rate = 56)

After a strong rookie campaign, I cautioned poolies to pump the brakes on Lundell, who I feared could become Jordan Staal 2.0 due to his skill set and with respect to scoring, not to mention the Pathers seeing their goal total come back to earth. Still though, he has managed to sneak into the top-six at times this season and looked fine when there. If he is Staal 2.0, none of that might matter and he'll be relegated to the bottom six.

Dawson Mercer (Career games played = 164; Best Career Scoring Rate = 56)

After a lukewarm first half, Mercer dazzled as the season went on, and played either with Nico Hischier or Jack Hughes, both of which are pretty great gigs. What's yet to materialize, however, is significant PP time; but if he has another gear as he hits his 200-game breakout threshold, he just might get that coveted PP1 time and truly explode.

Ilya Mikheyev (Career games played = 192; Best Career Scoring Rate = 50)

Despite going from the offensive juggernaut that is Toronto to Vancouver, Mikheyev's scoring has remained steady. Already 28 though, and without upward trends in scoring, might he be too unlikely to make a leap? Tough to say.

Alex Newhook (Career games played = 159; Best Career Scoring Rate = 41)

He's yet to become what Nazem Kadri had been; however, Newhook remains an integral part of Colorado's plans, especially with J.T. Compher set to walk as a UFA this summer. If all things align like they could for Newhook, he could make major waves.

Lucas Raymond (Career games played = 156; Best Career Scoring Rate = 57)

The toast of the NHL for the first half of his rookie season, the Raymond hype has died down quite a bit in 2022-23, even as Detroit has improved as a team. Could he just be waiting to hit the 200-game mark before he shines? We shall see.

Yegor Sharangovich (Career games played = 205; Best Career Scoring Rate = 50)

After scoring rates of 46 and 50 in his first two seasons, much was expected to Sharangovich for 2022-23. With below point per every other game output and not a sniff of PP time, it might be that he's ticketed for the bottom six. Still, one can never be sure, and it would not be a shock to see him rise to new heights as he hits 200 games played.

Owen Tippett (Career games played = 192; Best Career Scoring Rate = 52)

It looked like Philly might be the last stop for Tippett on his way out of the NHL. Instead, he's put up by far his best numbers and looks like he might deliver on the promise he held when he first entered the NHL.

Eeli Tolvanen (Career games played = 183; Best Career Scoring Rate = 45)

After disappointing for the Preds in 2021-22 and then for most of 2022-23, Tolvanen landed in Seattle, where he's played great. With the balanced ice times for Kraken forwards, Tolvanen might not be able to make a huge splash; however, he also should be able to stake out a regular spot and, if his tenure there this season was prelude, do quite well for himself and poolies who own him.

Gabriel Vilardi (Career games played = 152; Best Career Scoring Rate = 53)

He's large enough to perhaps need until game 400 to truly break out, but his 2022-23 campaign resulted in him playing to a level to be able to likely lock himself into a top-six spot for 2023-24. With LA's youth all being on the cusp of making major marks, he might be the one to lead the way.

Oliver Wahlstrom (Career games played = 161; Best Career Scoring Rate = 39)

At times he dazzles on the ice. But those times has been fewer and farther between than most poolies had expected, and not for a lack of trying to put him with the best offensive talents on Long Island. If he's ever going to connect the dots, 2023-24 would seem like the time to do so.

Filip Zadina (Career games played = 190; Best Career Scoring Rate = 44)

It's fitting to have Zadina follow Wahlstrom because I feel that both has similar expectations and have similarly disappointed. There's no question that Zadina has raw talent and Detroit is a good place to be if looking to get chances to make one's mark. He's bound to get more chances, but can he capitalize on them?

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That's a lot of names. How many are indeed poised for a significant breakout next season is up to you to decide. Remember that you can vote for as many players as you believe will reach major new heights in 2023-24 to coincide with their 200-game breakout threshold. Click here to cast your votes.

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Questions for Mailbag Column

My monthly mailbag column runs next week and I have room to answer more questions. To get yours to me, you can either private message “rizzeedizzee” via the DobberHockey Forums or, instead, send an email to [email protected] with “Roos Mailbag” as the subject line.