Ramblings: A Night of Upsets, and Thoughts on Tolvanen, Montour, Nichushkin and More … (May 01)

Dobber

2023-05-01

GROUND has been broken on the 2023 Fantasy Prospects Report! This week I will make next year's offerings available in the shop for pre-order (not there yet). The Prospects Report will be released June 1. Follow me on Twitter for the announcement regarding when the products become available in the shop for presale.

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First of all – wow.

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Boston played their 30th Game 7 in history, and Patrice Bergeron tied Zdeno Chara for the most Game 7 appearances in NHL history with 14.

Boston was a juggernaut all season long. I looked at the roster up and down, inside and out – couldn't see a way that a team could beat them. Yet…it happened. On the other hand, the Panthers are one year off of winning the President's Trophy and being a Cup favorite, and since then they upgraded Jonathan Huberdeau with Matthew Tkachuk. So, should we really be surprised?

Mr. Playoffs Carter Verhaeghe scored the OT winner and added an assist, giving him 20 points in his last 13 playoff games. The guy is clutch.

Tyler Bertuzzi and Brad Marchand had 10 points each in the seven games. Taylor Hall and Dmitri Orlov had eight each. So the two big acquisitions – Orlov and Bertuzzi – combined for 18 points in the first round. That is some solid trading right there. The biggest shocker, besides Boston's goaltending, is Hampus Lindholm. He went pointless in seven games after having the season of his life. He had 53 points in the regular season, fairly evenly distributed, though he was at his hottest in the first quarter. But he still had over two minutes per game of PP time in the seven games and still came up empty. His defense partner was consistent (Brandon Carlo in both playoffs and season), and he was used primarily against the Aleksander Barkov line. Next year I would shade him closer to 48 points.

Patrice Bergeron, per several sources, had a herniated disc and will contemplate his future (i.e. retirement) over the summer.

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Let's take a moment to dig into Brandon Montour's year. His 25 points in his last 20 games to end the season – to me, that helped him leapfrog Josh Morrissey as the season's most surprising player. I mean…his career high was 37 points and he ended with 73! He's 29 years old and had never before seen 38 points in a campaign. This season he saw that by Game 45. Was it a fluke? Well, he scored twice in a Game 7 and had eight points in seven playoff games – so I'm gonna give that a 'no'. It wasn't even a contact year – he's still signed for 2023-24 ($3.5M AAV).

When a defenseman does all this, then his ticket for future success is punched. If a defenseman tops 70 points and continues to roll like that through the playoffs, then in the ensuing years he's going to get all the ice time, PP time and top partners that he needs to succeed. If there is one thing we know about coaches, it's that they love a proven track record. They take that over everything. Montour now has it. So he stands to have all he needs to repeat.

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John Tavares on Saturday, in case you missed it, showing my kids something they had never seen in their young lives – a first-round win:

I actually thought Darren Raddysh, an undrafted career minor-leaguer, played pretty well in the series and was a threat offensively. Unfortunately, the winner went in off his skate. But he showed he can be an NHL depth guy. Raddysh is 27, and his brother Taylor was traded to Chicago in the Brandon Hagel deal last year.

The Lightning was probably the better team in the series, but only slightly. But… the Leafs were the better team a year ago in that series. Consider them even? The most impressive player for the Lightning to me was Brandon Hagel. He didn't lead the team in scoring (Nikita Kucherov and Anthony Cirelli had six points each), but he had five points and seemed to create something every time he was out there. Coming off a 64-point season, I think Hagel has a 70-point one in him.

Tanner Jeannot ended up with four points for Tampa Bay, zero in the playoffs. In the postseason he was scratched from the last three games. The traded a first, second, third, fourth and fifth round pick for him. And Cal Foote. Foote, by the way, ended up with four points for Nashville – and also zero points in the playoffs.

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Speaking of trades, how about a good one? The Leafs got seven points in six games from Ryan O'Reilly and a pair of goals from Noel Acciari. The Leafs traded a first, second, third and fourth, plus two minor leaguers for those two.

Mitch Marner has 44 career points in 45 career games. Auston Matthews 42 in 45. William Nylander 37 in 45. Morgan Rielly 33 in 45.

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I like how Seattle's goaltending sucks all year, but suddenly in the playoffs they have Ken Dryden. Here are the top six goalies in the playoffs, by save percentage (minimum four games):

  1. Igor Shesterkin 0.939
  2. Akira Schmid 0.937
  3. Jake Oettinger 0.929
  4. Ilya Sorokin 0.929
  5. Philipp Grubauer 0.926
  6. Filip Gustavsson 0.921

Dead last (minimum four games)? Andrei Vasilevskiy at 0.875.

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Two big upsets in the NHL – the best regular season team in NHL history…and just three hours later, the defending Stanley Cup champs. Wow – what a night for hockey.

Colorado has now lost six straight Game 7s. Their last Game 7 win was in 2002.

This Valeri Nichushkin issue is concerning. For those of you unaware, a woman was found heavily intoxicated in his hotel room. His agent denies that Nichushkin has anything to do with it, and Coach Jared Bednar insists he is away from the team for an unrelated personal issue. I don't like risk or controversy when it comes to my players, but on the flip side – the guy is signed for like a trillion dollars over the next hundred years. So they won't give up on him, as long as the situation doesn't completely spiral.

Nathan MacKinnon actually tied the game – but Coach Dave Hakstol challenged the goal for offside, and won (it was clear-cut). Imagine if he didn't challenge? I wonder how many series were lost in the 80s due to being unable to challenge.

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It's games like this that made me think all these years that Oliver Bjorkstrand had a star-level tier he could reach. This regular season pretty much put the kibosh on such thoughts, but he had a hell of a game Sunday. Not only did he score both of Seattle's goals, but he hit three points and a couple other shots off his stick barely missed. He seemed to always be open, all night long.

It was interesting to see Eeli Tolvanen out there in the final minute of a one-goal game in a Game 7. It has to make Tolvanen's dynasty owners feel comfortable that he'll work out just fine as an NHLer. His upside? Still to be determined, but for now I still consider it quite high.

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Interesting stat for Monday's NYR-NJD Game 7: Home teams are 111-79, giving the edge to the Devils. The team that scores first his 143-47 in 190 all-time Game 7s.

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Our DFS subscription is now on sale for $49.99 for the playoffs. That's right: 50% off! Order it here!

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See you next Monday.

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UPCOMING GAMES

Dec 23 - 13:12 N.J vs NYR
Dec 23 - 14:12 TOR vs WPG
Dec 23 - 19:12 DET vs STL
Dec 23 - 19:12 CBJ vs MTL
Dec 23 - 19:12 BOS vs WSH
Dec 23 - 19:12 FLA vs T.B
Dec 23 - 19:12 PIT vs PHI
Dec 23 - 19:12 NYI vs BUF
Dec 23 - 20:12 NSH vs CAR
Dec 23 - 20:12 MIN vs CHI
Dec 23 - 21:12 UTA vs DAL
Dec 23 - 21:12 VAN vs S.J
Dec 23 - 22:12 VGK vs ANA

Starting Goalies

Top Skater Views

  Players Team
JACKSON LACOMBE ANA
LANE HUTSON MTL
PATRIK LAINE MTL
SHANE PINTO OTT
JONATHAN HUBERDEAU CGY

Top Goalie Profile Views

  Players Team
MACKENZIE BLACKWOOD COL
SPENCER KNIGHT FLA
DAVID RITTICH L.A
LUKAS DOSTAL ANA
LINUS ULLMARK OTT

LINE COMBOS

  Frequency DAL Players
20.6 SAM STEEL COLIN BLACKWELL OSKAR BACK
19.8 JASON ROBERTSON ROOPE HINTZ MAVRIK BOURQUE
13.8 LOGAN STANKOVEN WYATT JOHNSTON JAMIE BENN

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