Ramblings: Gallant Out in NYC, Oilers Dominate Game 2, Revisiting My Players to Rebound/Disappoint (May 7)

Ian Gooding

2023-05-07

After a playoff performance that fell short of expectations, the New York Rangers have decided to move on from Gerard Gallant and search for a new head coach. The Rangers had signaled they were all in by trading for Vladimir Tarasenko and Patrick Kane at the deadline, but instead ended up losing to the rival Devils in seven games even though they won the first two games of the first-round series.

Getting anywhere near the Jack Adams Award is like the kiss of death to an NHL head coach.

A lack of scoring in Games 3-5 (two goals total) seemed to seal the fate for the Rangers and ultimately Gallant. The Rangers had received decent production from trade acquisitions Kane (6 PTS in 7 GP) and Tarasenko (3 G in 7 GP) during the playoffs, but the same can't be said for at least a couple of other Rangers regulars at different stages of their careers: Artemi Panarin and Alexis Lafreniere.

After recording just two assists in Game 1, Panarin was held without a point from Games 2-7. It's easy to assume that this lack of playoff production is foreshadowing for an age-related decline, but the 31-year-old Panarin is coming off his second consecutive 90+ point season. That being said, his point-per-game production has dropped from 1.38 PTS/GP in 2020-21 to 1.28 PTS/GP in 2021-22 to 1.12 PTS/GP this season. Only nine players had more assists than Panarin (63), and only nine players had more power-play points (36). I might project a small further drop in points but nothing in bust territory simply because the Rangers should continue to be a strong team offensively.

One stat that stood out for the Rangers was that of Lafreniere failing to record a single point in the seven-game series. 0 G, 0 A, 0 +/-, 0 PIM, 0 FOW… that's a whole lot of donuts. He's been the subject of trade rumors as there's questions as to whether he's a fit with the Rangers. It's easy to forget that he's still only 21 years old and had only completed his third NHL season. In hindsight, perhaps he was rushed to the NHL, and it's debatable as to whether he's received enough of an opportunity to succeed with the number of established veterans already on this roster. A coaching change could help, while the potential departures of Kane and Tarasenko if they don't fit into the salary cap could create additional opportunities. If I ran the Rangers, my focus would be on improving the defense, though.

One more. I picked Vincent Trocheck in a playoff pool. Huge disappointment with just one point (a goal) in seven games. If the Rangers were an important part of your playoff pool, you won't be winning it this season. But the same could be said for a least a couple of other teams. Bruins and Avalanche: I'm looking at you.

Hand Leon Draisaitl the Conn Smythe Trophy already. Draisaitl scored another two goals, giving him an astounding 13 goals in eight playoff games. To give you an idea of how far ahead of the rest of the league he is, no one has more than seven goals in this year's playoffs. Draisaitl is making a serious run at the record for playoff goals in a season, held by both Reggie Leach and Jari Kurri (19).

Some more crazy Draisaitl numbers: Six of his goals are power-play goals. In other words, only Mikko Rantanen has more playoff goals (7) than Draisaitl has power-play playoff goals. As well, Draisaitl is shooting at a very unsustainable 38.2%. His shooting percentage is normally higher than just about everyone else's, so the scoring rate has to drop. Or will it?   

Evan Bouchard scored a power-play goal and added a power-play assist in Game 2. Bouchard has multiple points in each of his last three games, as well as points in all eight playoff games for the Oilers. Not surprisingly, he leads all defensemen in playoff scoring with 14 points in eight games. Bouchard finished the season with 19 points in 19 regular-season games following the Tyson Barrie trade, so he has massive potential next season with the way the Oilers power play rolls. In fact, a point per game for Bouchard may not be out of the question given the recent results.

The Oilers power-play went 3-for-6 in Game 2, which dropped it to an eye-popping 56% during the playoffs. That's much-improved over the 32% regular-season success rate, which happened to lead the league over a full season. When you watch these guys toy with the opposition when they have a power play, it's a surprise when they don't score.

Ivan Barbashev scored the lone goal for the Golden Knights, which gives him four goals in his last four games.

Laurent Brossoit was pulled after two periods, allowing five goals on 32 shots. That was his first loss since Game 1 of the first round, as he had reeled off five consecutive wins prior to Game 2. Adin Hill saw his first-ever playoff action in the third period. Brossoit was probably being rested after facing such a high shot total after two periods, so expect him to be back in net for Game 3. Remember when Vegas acquired Jonathan Quick? I guess he's available if needed as well.

In our preseason Experts Panel where we make player and team predictions for the upcoming regular season. Laugh at the predictions we made all you want, but I won't focus on those here. Instead, I'll look back at my picks for player to rebound and player to disappoint.

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Player to rebound: Jack Eichel

Why I picked him: The second overall pick in 2015 after Connor McDavid, Eichel seemed destined for stardom, with a 100-point season potentially in his future. Yet he wasn't immune to the struggles in Buffalo, as he was held to just two goals (but 16 assists) in 21 games in his final season there. Then there was the issue with the neck injury and his exit from Buffalo. Before this season, Eichel had scored just 43 points in 55 games over his previous two seasons combined. Question marks abound on whether he would be the same player after his disk replacement surgery, which he chose on his terms even though it had never been performed on an NHL player before.

How he rebounded: Eichel was back to (close to) a point-per-game pace (66 points in 67 games) in his first full season with the Golden Knights, leading the team in scoring. He'd also reached met other important fantasy minimums, including a plus-26 ranking and 223 shots on goal. More importantly, he remained healthy for most of the season.

How he didn't rebound: Although his surgically repaired neck wasn't reportedly an issue, Eichel missed most of December with a lower-body injury. As well, his 14 power-play points seems a bit low for a player of his stature, although he was only two points off the team lead in that category. Moreover, 38 players that played the majority of their team's games finished with at least a point per game, which doesn't make Eichel's output stand out that much.  

Overall: I'd say this was a good call, but not a great one. The main risk was the injury, which turned out okay. Eichel had an ADP of 42 in Yahoo leagues and finished in my league as the 72nd-ranked player. He was a solid player for fantasy teams but not an elite game breaker.

Player to disappoint: Matt Duchene

Why I picked him: After finishing the shortened 2020-21 season with just 13 points in 34 games, the 30- year-old Duchene had an out-of-nowhere 86-point campaign, finishing over the point-per-game mark for the first time in his career. I look for advanced stats to compare to other seasons to determine whether an outlier is potentially sustainable, and it appeared that Duchene's goal total (43 in 2021-22) was due for a decline. He had shot close to 19% that season compared to below 10% in his previous two seasons. To his defense, Duchene was shooting quite a bit more that season, as he had his first 200+ SOG campaign since 2015-16.

How he disappointed: The goal and point totals did in fact decline, from 43 goals and 86 points to 22 goals and 56 points. That's a 30-point drop, even though Duchene missed 11 games, most of which were due to a late season hand injury. His shot total fell half a shot per game, while his power-play point total fell from 29 PPP to 13 PPP. The Predators as a team dropped about half a goal per game, which I had also factored in.

How he didn't disappoint: The 56-point output was still his second-best season out of his four seasons in Nashville. He fit the definition of a bust, but he didn't necessarily bottom out, either. He has three seasons remaining on a contract that has a cap hit of $8 million, so the Predators will need to try to justify that by giving him the prime opportunities.

Overall: This was an easy one to pick that hardly qualified as a hot take. Duchene is probably the player we saw in 2022-23 season: A first-line player for Nashville who would be more like a second-line player with a higher-scoring team. Bet on him finishing under the point-per-game mark again, although he's certainly rosterable in many fantasy formats.

Follow me on Twitter @Ian_Gooding for more fantasy hockey.

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