Ramblings: Thoughts on Mercer, Duclair, Sprong and More … (May 08)
Dobber
2023-05-08
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The Devils came out and immediately hammered the Hurricanes. That's impressive, considering this is a Rod Brind'Amour-coached team. But Jack Hughes took his game to another level with four points.
With Dawson Mercer clicking on his line, Mercer's fantasy value is sky-high in keeper leagues. I never thought his upside would be higher than the low-60s, but alongside Hughes this could easily top 80. Think Zach Hyman. While Hyman, not even in his wildest dreams, had an upside of more than 65 – he got there thanks to Connor McDavid. Now, Hughes is no McDavid, but because Mercer's upside was always a little higher than where we had Hyman, the end result should be similar.
And, in what is impeccable timing – Mercer hits our 'Breakout Threshold' about midway through next campaign.
Luke Hughes got into his first NHL playoff game. The Devils had been holding him out because NHL teams (probably rightly) figure that playoff hockey is too much pressure to throw in a newcomer. But much like Matthew Knies in Toronto, a player being unable to play (in this case, Ryan Graves), opened up his chance. He responded by posting another two assists. For those keeping track, Luke Hughes has now played three regular season and playoff games, and he has four points. He's making more of an impact than brother Quinn Hughes. He really clicked with Damon Severson, who shoots right (Hughes shoots left). If that combo sticks, it would be just what Severson needs. Severson scored on Sunday.
Vitek Vanecek took the net back from Akira Schmid and got the start for New Jersey, Sunday, after Schmid suffered back-to-back Really Bad Starts (RBS). Vanecek still coughed up four goals on Sunday (30 shots).
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Freddie Andersen was lit up for four goals on just 12 shots, but hotshot prospect Pyotr Kochetkov wasn't a lot better. The Devils were just dialed in. Andersen was coming off of three consecutive Quality Starts and is working for his next contract.
Jesperi Kotkaniemi followed up one of the best games of his young career with one of his weaker ones, going minus-4.
The Canes gave up seven ES goals, and yet Jaccob Slavin was somehow a plus-2. Impressive! He and Brent Burns also posted a strong 58.6 Corsi-For%.
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Ninety-eight percent of all teams who go down three games to zero in the NHL postseason end up getting eliminated. Shocker, I know. But worth noting because Toronto is now in that boat. Go figure – they finally get by Tampa Bay and finally avoid Boston, only to bet beat by Florida.
Don't sleep on the Panthers, though. Remember, just one year ago we crowned them one of the best regular season teams in NHL history. All they did since then was swap out Jonathan Huberdeau for Matthew Tkachuk, and add a new coach in Paul Maurice. Their terrible first half was surprising, but that just means that for them to get into the playoffs it would take a sizzling-hot second half.
The two players who got back into the Leafs' lineup Sunday (Sam Lafferty and Erik Gustavsson) each scored. But once again, the Panthers prevailed, knocking Toronto to the brink (and I don't mean 'Bobby').
Anthony Duclair makes for an excellent buy-low candidate in dynasty leagues this summer. He had 31 goals and 58 points in 2021-22, but slipped to just nine points in 20 games this year. Keep in mind, he was sidelined for most of the season after Achilles surgeon. An injury, to me, that requires at least a half-season to properly recuperate. He had a couple of premium opportunities on Sunday, cashing in on one.
Ilya Samsonov left game Sunday (see 56-second mark of clip):
Joseph Woll stepped in and did okay. Matt Murray was available to return, but had been listed as the No.3 goalie.
The Panthers have never swept a team in the NHL playoffs before.
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I have an idea for the Toronto Maple Leafs that is guaranteed to get them deep into the postseason within two years. Trust me – it's foolproof. Ready to hear it? Okay: Fold the franchise. Bear with me. You fold the franchise and then you launch an expansion team. Call it the Toronto Maple Leafs, for the sake of nostalgia. But have an expansion draft, put together a new group for the office, and watch the team win. Vegas goes deep in their first season. Seattle could be going deep (semi-finals? Further?) in their second season. NHL teams tend to copy each other when something proves successful. Has this system not proven to be so?
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And so now we have a nice segue into this next part. The expansion team Seattle Kraken won handily against Dallas on Sunday, sniping seven goals in a 7-2 contest. Five of those goals happened in the second period. Including this one, where you can also see Miro Heiskanen get injured:
Heiskanen did not return to the game and I suspect a likely concussion will keep him out of the lineup for a while. Which is obviously trouble for the Stars. When Heiskanen left, the floodgates opened for Seattle.
Daniel Sprong only played 6:36 in the game. (Edit: Sprong left the second period with an injury and did not return – no update on his situation). Sprong's points per minute during the regular season was insanity. He averaged 11:25 per game, yet still had 46 points in 66 games (and by the way – he hit his Breakout Threshold early in the season). One-dimensional offensive players with defensive liabilities can be found on every team. But when their offense has been this good – their coaches just accept it and give them regular playing time. Not Hakstol. Even if Sprong remained healthy he was looking at 11 minutes of ice time. This is why I have no interest in owning Sprong in my dynasty league for as long as Hakstol is his coach.
Philipp Grubauer had a 0.895 SV% in the regular season, but boasts a 0.918 in the playoffs.
Prospect Tye Kartye continues to play with Matty Beniers and Jordan Eberle in Jared McCann's absence. I had him ranked at 220 on my fantasy prospect forwards list, but with this successful recall he will move up into the Top 110 in the next update (coming within a week). Kartye picked up an assist and that entire line has been playing very well.
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Fun fact – looking at the NHL's leading scorers from February onwards, the player in fourth place was Clayton Keller (45 points in 32 games).
Other names of interest showing up on that list include Casey Mittelstadt, who was 35th on that list (31 points in 33 games), Keller's linemate Barrett Hayton, who was 67th (26 points in 32 games), and the aforementioned Kotkaniemi, 72nd (25 in 32).
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Don't forget – the NHL Draft Lottery (AKA the Connor Bedard Sweeps) goes tonight. Personally, I'm hoping for Columbus or Arizona. I know that's not a popular opinion.
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See you next Monday.
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Sprong left the game injured and never returned.
Thank you. I had the game on, but I guess I was engrossed in writing the Ramblings and completely whiffed on that? Not sure how I missed it.
I hope Arizona wins the lottery as well if not Anh or SJ would be 2nd & 3rd choices. Don’t really care just don’t want Mtl or Chi but any other team is fine really.
I least want CHI and ANA. They’ve won Cups recently