Ramblings: Digging Deep on Chicago and Connor Bedard, Knights, Oilers and More … (May 15)

Dobber

2023-05-15

The Prospects Report will be released June 1. You can now pre-order all of the 2023-24 fantasy products in the shop here (or subscribe!).

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Apologies to those subscribers who received one-cent charges. Back when COVID delayed the NHL season, I was forced to push the date of the new subscription back a couple of weeks (i.e. I was selling the Playoff Draft List for one season…and couldn't sell next season's Prospects Report at the same time). The only way we could figure to do that was to charge a minimum (one penny) to extend the subscription season by a couple of weeks. And then the new season's offerings go on sale. I thought that this would be a one-time thing, but the system did it again – charged you a penny. We are looking into a fix for next time so this won't annoy you in the future. COVID…still annoying us to this day…

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The Knights move on, opening up the very real possibility that Vegas will play Seattle in the Conference Finals.

Is it just me, or are teams losing more games in the playoffs when they outshoot the other team by at least seven or eight shots? Is the answer for winning playoff hockey simply…dial back the skill? The Rangers added Patrick Kane and, although Kane is better than most forwards on that team…he seemed to make them worse. The Oilers are wildly more talented than Vegas, but lost Sunday's game. Do talented teams just keep the other goalie warmed up while the grittier, system-based teams just await the end of the onslaught and then skate down the ice to shoot on the colder goalie? With penalty calls way down in the playoffs (as always) even though play gets rougher (as always), is it more beneficial to shed a star player or two in favor of a plugger with a bit of upside? Granted, this might mean you barely slip into the playoffs (as Florida did), but if the end goal is to win a Cup, maybe that's the answer. Teams are winning series and going deep with zero starpower (Matty Beniers isn't there yet).

So if your team trades an elite player for a checker, a tough second-pairing defenseman, a third-line 45-point player and a couple of picks – maybe we don't crap on the GM?

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Connor McDavid exists another postseason as the leading scorer. His production slipped from 1.87 points-per-game average in the regular season to 1.67 in the playoffs. He had points in every game except Game 3 in the second round, and Game 1 in the first round. He had at least three shots on goal in each of his last eight games, including 10 over his last two. He shelled out 30 Hits in 12 playoff games, but barely averages one hit per game during the season.

Vegas effectively shut down Leon Draisaitl. After Draisaitl shelled them for four goals in the first game and two goals in the second – he didn't score again. Four games with zero goals, one assist and he was minus-7.

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What can we say about Jonathan Marchessault? He followed up a three-point game (all assists) with another one (all goals). He's clicking on a line with Ivan Barbashev and Jack Eichel. Curious to see if Vegas re-signs Barbashev and they keep that line together. They made up the top three scorers on the team for the series (Eichel nine points, Marchessault eight and Barbashev six).

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Top goalies by SV%, minimum 150 minutes:

  1. Adin Hill, VGK 0.934
  2. Frederik Andersen, CAR 0.931
  3. Igor Shesterkin, NYR 0.931
  4. Ilya Sorokin, NYI 0.929
  5. Akira Schmid, NJD 0.921
  6. Filip Gustavsson, MIN 0.921
  7. Sergei Bobrovsky, FLA 0.918
  8. Joseph Woll, TOR 0.915

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Connor Bedard changes the fantasy hockey landscape (obviously) and the No.1 guy I am targeting is Lukas Reichel. But, be forewarned, his price is already jacked sky-high. Believe me, I've tried (did not succeed).

No.2 guy to target – Kevin Korchinski. That power play is going to be smoking, and in two or three years this guy will be piling up Evan Bouchard-level points. If Korchinski makes the team in the fall, and he could but it's no guarantee, I wouldn't expect the huge production right away. As with all prospects, it's a process. Seth Jones will be the man for the first three years, taking PP time and production away from Korchinski the way Tyson Barrie took big numbers away from Bouchard.

No.3 on the list is Frank Nazar, who will return to college for next season. Still, long-term he's a favorite to play on Bedard's wing. And even on his own Nazar will be a dynamite player.

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These are longer-term pickups, for the most part. But I really believe Reichel will be immediate. For other 'immediate' help, I look at the current roster. Who led the team in assists that could be a setup man for Bedard's snipes? Who led the team in goals that could be on the receiving end of Bedard's sweet passes? Since Andreas Athanasiou is a UFA this summer and may not be back, and since I don't trust him anyway, we have to look to Taylor Raddysh and his 20 goals. He could be Bedard's other option. Raddysh, Bedard, Reichel?

Jones led Chicago in assists, and I would expect him to flirt with 60 points this year. In fact, he's the only proven stud left on the team that can play with Bedard. But Philipp Kurashev is going to be a fine setup man, too, and I wonder if he gets a look on Bedard's line. As a bonus – Kurashev is almost at his BT. He's played 191 career games, so 2023-24 will be his breakthrough season, according to our model, assuming he fully recovers from his shoulder injury.

Another thought: Who will Chicago sign as a free agent? Are they still going to build, and thus sign one-year rentals they can trade at the deadline? That's not a bad idea. Think about it – a player they bring in just for one season of playing with Bedard. His numbers would get seriously inflated, thereby bringing in a huge return on a trade. Moving a player with 30 points at the deadline…or that same player with 50 points because of Bedard. Huge difference. I don't see Patrick Kane, Ryan O'Reilly, Tyler Bertuzzi, Jason Zucker, Alex Killorn, JT Compher or Vladimir Tarasenko as "rentals". But what about James van Riemsdyk, Max Pacioretty, Jonathan Drouin, Tomas Tatar or Gustav Nyquist? Or bring back Max Domi? That "rental" or two could be huge. But his trade value will be over-inflated as soon as he signs. You could always try to acquire one of these players on the cheap beforehand, and hope you hit paydirt on July 1!

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I'm a big fan of rebuilds. I always tend to love a team that builds from the ground up, giving up on just scraping by. It's why I started to really get into Pittsburgh 20 years ago, Chicago 15 years ago, the Leafs about eight years ago, and the Rangers about three or four years ago. It's why I'm really enjoying Buffalo these past two years. I didn't really like what Chicago GM Kyle Davidson did last year. While I agree with his trading the pieces that he did, I felt like he needed to take his time with them and get more. Just pull a Joe Sakic or Steve Yzerman and wait so long to trade a player like Alex DeBrincat that fans start going crazy with anticipation. And not walk away from Dylan Strome's contract. I feel like Davidson worked his team like a panicky fantasy owner. And now he's rewarded for that, by winning the Bedard lottery? This is an organization that rewarded its city with a Stanley Cup just eight years ago, 10 years ago and 13 years ago. Not exactly 'long-suffering'. And even though they probably won't win a Cup for five or six years with Bedard, it's still going to be great hockey to watch just having him on your team. No suffering at all, while a team like Columbus continues to fill the arena with loyal fans who will watch through thick and thin.

But that's not even the biggest reason. That's just my personal love of rebuilds. The biggest reason is what this organization did to Kyle Beach. The Arizona Coyotes was forfeited a second-round draft pick and a first-round draft pick for violating the NHL's Combine Testing Policy. Chicago? Fined money for covering up a sexual assault – money which is now made back (and then some), thanks to a single draft lottery result. Should they have even had this pick?

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Eeli Tolvanen is really coming into his own under Seattle's system. Elite potential. Raw skills that just needed to be patiently honed. A lot of organizations would chew him up and spit him out, but the right one could really coax that inner star out of him. He has a BT season coming up in 2023-24 and I think it will approach 0.75 points-per-game average. The most interesting thing about what Seattle did with him? They put him in the press box for the first seven games after his arrival. He practiced with the team, was given time to learn the system, and had zero pressure.

Tye Kartye is another Seattle prospect looking good right now. Signed as an undrafted free agent just over a year ago, he didn't look like he would turn into much. I mean – lots of overage players produce big numbers in the OHL. They're men, playing against boys. But then Kartye transitioned beautifully to the pro game at the AHL level, posting 57 points in 72 games, leading all rookies in scoring and winning the AHL Rookie of the Year award. When Jared McCann was injured and the Kraken called up Kartye, they decided to just swap him straight onto the first line. He played so well that even when McCann returned, Kartye held onto that spot. He now has five points in nine playoff games. How he does in the fall will depend on who (and how many) the Kraken sign over the summer in terms of free agents. If they add a proven top sixer, then Kartye may find himself back in the minors – even if undeserved. I've seen it a million times.

But what I also see from time to time is a prospect forcing his way onto the roster even when the team fills the roster. And Kartye strikes me as that kind of guy who overcomes the odds. He'll be on my dynasty draft list, he just may get bumped down if the Kraken go nuts in the summer with the signings.

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Sister site DobberProspects has posted an updated version of our organizational rankings. This ranks the prospects system of each team, from a fantasy standpoint. Find it here.

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See you next Monday.

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