Welcome back to Forum Buzz, where I peruse the DobberHockey Forums and weigh in on active, heavily debated, or otherwise relevant recent threads, reminding folks just how great a resource the Forums are. Nearly anything might be covered here, other than trades and signings, which usually get their own separate write-ups on the main site and are also normally covered in the next day’s Ramblings, or questions that are specific to salary cap issues, which is the domain of the weekly Capped column. To access the specific forum thread on which a question is based, click on the “Topic” for that question.

Topic #1 – In a league that favors volume of starts, which two are preferred for the next three seasons: Jack Campbell, Elvis Merzlikins, Robin Lehner?

Can I pick the Zamboni driver, or maybe the hot dog vendor? In all seriousness, this is basically a two lesser of three evils decision. Campbell faltered after parlaying a decent couple of seasons as a back-up and part of a one as a starter into a major UFA contract, Merzlikins had one of the statistically worst seasons in recent memory for 2022-23 and hasn't really looked even decent in the last couple of years, and Lehner might not ever return to being a full time starter, if at all.

The other thing that isn't helpful is all three have fairly comparable contracts, with Lehner set to earn $5M per season, which is the same salary as Campbell, versus $5.4M for Merzlikins. So none of them is any more or less likely to play more versus the others in view of how much they make. Of the three, only Lehner's deal expires within these three seasons; and given his health issues unless he plays – and plays well – he might not get a new deal at all for 2025-26, which will be the third of these three seasons.

Then who do I take? Probably Elvis, as I think the Blue Jackets will continue to try turning to him again for 2023-24 and he might have been mentally checked out for 2022-23 given that he saw his best friend die before his eyes during the summer of 2022. After that it's a toughie. In Edmonton Stuart Skinner looms large, and Campbell doesn't make so much as to have it be impossible for him to ride the pine. With Lehner, what are you actually getting? Does he even play again? If he does, is there realistic hope he'll be the same goalie he once was? In the end I think the because volume matters I go with Campbell over Lehner, in hopes he can somehow prove he's a starter again, as Lehner is just too much of a risk for me to latch onto.

Topic #2 – Is there a way to project how well Timo Meier will do going forward for the Devils? Can he fare at least as well as he did in San Jose, if not better?

I was a bit surprised when Meier went to the Devils. Don't get me wrong – his combination of grit and scoring was lacking in New Jersey; but it had yet to help lift his prior team. There was also the issue of having two very high volume shooters on the same squad, with Meier averaging 4.4 SOG per game at the time he was traded and Jack Hughes just under 4.6. After the trade both failed to average even four SOG per game, with Hughes at 3.7 and Meier an even worse 3.4. Digging deeper, this is not surprising since other than Patrice Bergeron and David Pastrnak in 2022-23, who predominantly didn't play on the same line, it had been a decade since two forwards on the same team averaged even 4.0 SOG per game in the same season. Although Meier predominantly played with Nico Hischier in his NJ tenure, the effect of him being there seemingly made things worse for him as well as Hughes, what with the two not only having their lowest output quarters of 2022-23 from a SOG perspective, but scoring-wise too.

Of course 2023-24 will be a new slate, with Meier – presuming he's qualified – having had time to gel with his team during the offseason and training camp. I still wonder whether he can succeed if his SOGs remain lower, as the only time in his career he fared better than a 69 point pace he fired 4.2 SOG per game. Also, despite Meier's scoring having taken a hit versus 2021-22, his SH% was a career best; and had he shot 10.0%, which was his career rate entering this season, he'd have tallied eight fewer goals, where, if none of the missed goals were repackaged as assists, that would've meant a production rate of 61 points, not the 69 he actually tallied.

In terms of scoring, I think Meier might be more like Evander Kane than originally thought, namely a high-volume shooter whose scoring is good not great. While it is true Kane has fared quite well playing in Edmonton, that was alongside either Connor McDavid or Leon Draisaitl, who are two of the NHL's best, and even then it was only certain times. Hughes looks to be a very special player; but his goals and assists have always been pretty close, thanks in large part to his high SOG total. If Meier does play alongside Hughes, I think it will hurt both of them. If, instead, Meier skates with Nico Hischier, as he did for the most part upon arriving in New Jersey, that means second line minutes and a lower OZ%, which should hurt Meier. I'd say Meier is a safe bet for around 60 points, but unlikely more than 65 unless he and Hughes somehow find a way to coexist in a mutually productive way.

Topic #3 – In a 12 team keeper with 30 man rosters plus 7 farm (< 82 NHL games), with 20 main roster keepers and all farm players, weekly H2H roto scoring, and categories of G, A, SOG, Hits, Blocks, PPP, Goalie W, SV%, GAA, a team is set on 16 of its main keepers as Jack Eichel (C), Sidney Crosby (C), Roope Hintz (C), Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (C/LW), William Nylander (LW/RW), Jordan Kyrou (LW/RW), Valeri Nichushkin (LW/RW), Zach Hyman (LW/RW), Mark Stone (RW), Jeremy Swayman (G), Jake Oettinger (G), Alexander Georgiev (G), Noah Dobson (D), Thomas Chabot (D), Charlie McAvoy (D), She Theodore (D), but is struggling to land on the last four. The options are Tomas Hertl, Michael Bunting, Boone Jenner, Mikael Backlund, Lawson Crouse, Bryan Rust, Tony DeAngelo, Tyson Barrie, Nils Lundkvist, Ville Husso. Who should they be?

Let's look first as Husso. Yes, this team already has three goalies, but only Oettinger is a locked in starter, with Georgiev more of a 1A and Swayman perhaps poised for another time share in 2023-24 unless Boston shakes things up after its shocking first round exit and moves Linus Ullmark. Husso would be another true #1, on a Detroit team that should make strides. I think he's one of the keeps, as he has a much higher chance of being impactful than the others.

I'm keeping Hertl too. He's not going to get 80 points but his floor is 60-65, and he could rise to 70+. Barrie is also someone who I'm keeping. When Roman Josi was out, Barrie's play was strong; and either he gets traded this offseason or during the course of the 2023-24 campaign. Either way, with this being the last season of his contract he'll have motivation to play well and I think his stats will be bolstered.

The last pick is toughest. The team could use Jenner's stat stuffing; however, Jenner just can't seem to really produce over the course of an entire campaign. Rust was solid until this season and should get a chance to rise back to his prior levels. In the end probably I go with DeAngelo because I think if all three don't do great, DeAngelo's floor is best. DeAngelo has probably a better chance to rise to a higher level than Rust at this point, as Rust could be Chris Kunitz 2.0, namely good for a couple of years then lousy again.

Topic #4 – What should the point projections be for the following players for 2023-24: Juuso Valimaki, Barrett Hayton, Michael Rasmussen, Shane Wright, Juraj Slafkovsky, Alexander Kaliyev, Peyton Krebs, Pavel Zacha, Owen Tippett, Jakub Vrana, Filip Chytil?

That's a good number of players, so I'll just briefly cover each. Also, it should go without saying that things could change due to offseason moves.

Valimaki – He was always supposed to have this in him, and Arizona D have been able to be productive in recent seasons. I've got him at roughly 45 points, with a better chance at rising to 50 than falling below 40.

Hayton – He's hitting his breakout threshold, had a superb second half, and Arizona will need a top line center since they won't get Bedard. I like him for 55-60, but with a 35% chance of 70+.

Rasmussen – He's a large player not close to game 400. He should continue to show flashes of great play but probably won't have the consistency to make a major mark. I'd say 45 points, but 50+ if he can gain a foothold in the top six.

Wright – Seattle is the wrong team for him, as they already have a locked in top line and will spread around ES and PP Time. I'd say 35-45 is most likely; but with his raw talent he could be able to come in and post 60+, although I'd only give that about a 20% chance of happening.

Slafkovsky – He's a project. Put it this way – if the Habs were as patient as they were with him in 2022-23, I don't see that changing for 2023-24. Point per every other game production would be about the best I'd hope for, but 35 is more likely.

Kaliyev – He too hits his breakout threshold, but LA has too many other good to very good players who will act as roadblocks. One of these years he's going to go nuts, and it could be in 2023-24. I'd say the safe bet is 40-50, but he has a 25% of a big breakout in the 65+ range.

Krebs – I love his 70%+ IPPs; however, that's with lousy players mainly, and he barely shoots. I fear he's not going to fulfill the promise many thought he had. Most likely 35-40 points.

Zacha – I realize he's a larger player and just past 400 games, but until I see two solid years in a row from him I can't predict major success and would cap him at ~50 points. Of course if both Patrice Bergeron and David Krejci retire, then 60-65 is viable.

Tippett – Philly was just the place he needed to go. He looks like a sniper in the making, even though he might not be a huge all around scorer. I'd put him down for 35+ goals on top of 25 to 30 assists.

Vrana – Whatever was ailing him, mentally and/or physically, seems to be behind him and we could see great things for 2023-24. I think 55-60 points is his downside, with a 35% shot at 70+.

Chytil – Vincent Trocheck has the huge deal, but Chytil looked like the better of the two in the second half and playoffs. If he gets the second line gig, 65+ is a lock, with a 40% chance at 75+. And even if stuck on the third line, I still think he finds a way to improve to 55+ points.

Topic #5 – In a 12 team, keep 8 league with categories of G(6), A(4), PIM(1), PPG(3), PPA(2), SHP(3.5), GWG(2), SOG(1), FOW(0.25), FOL (-0.25), HIT(0.5), BLK(0.33); W(6), L(-4), SV(0.5), SO(4), a team is learning toward keeping Mika Zibanejad (C), Vincent Trocheck (C), Leon Draisaitl (LW), Roman Josi, and Igor Shesterkin. Here are the other choices. Which three should be kept from this list, or do any of them replace on of the presumed five keepers?

C: Bo Horvat
L: Adrian Kempe, Brad Marchand
RW: Timo Meier, Teuvo Teravainen, Tom Wilson
D: Victor Hedman, Charlie McAvoy, Rasmus Andersson

I was all set to say Trocheck makes no sense after I talked him down above when discussing Filip Chytil, but then I did the math and even though Trocheck failed to live up to expectations he was a monster in this league, outpointing Meier, who is considered a multicat beast, by nearly 150 fantasy points. He was the only one of the five I was iffy on, but that sold me.

What about the other four? Well, let's get back to Meier. He's pretty amazing in this format, but that was due in large part to his San Jose numbers. As also discussed above, once he got to New Jersey he shot and scored less and was all around basically 75% of his normal self. Maybe that was just him getting used to his new surroundings, such that if he bounces back he's a great keep. If what we saw from him as a Devil is what we'll get from him as a Devil, that could be iffy given the other options available. Still, 75% of Meier probably is enough in this format.

I think McAvoy is a must keep though. Yes, Hampus Lindholm was more of a factor than envisioned, including on the PP, and McAvoy is a Band-Aid Boy; however, he too is a multicat beast and his scoring rate is very solid.

Then there's Hedman. The good news is he's still solid in multicat; however, he was outplayed by Mikhail Sergachev, who'll make more than Hedman starting next season. I fear Hedman could drop to the 50s, which would make him an iffy keep. If he can somehow still stay in the 60s, he too should be kept.

I'm not sold on Kempe. Even with some goal-centric categories I feel he's hit his ceiling, as the Kings are so deep that no one is poised to star for the team. And he could even fare worse if some of the youngsters rise. He's not a keeper for me.

Marchand is tempting. His regular season output showed that he was previously boosted by being on a line with a Patrice Bergeron and David Pastrnak, and with Pasta plying his trade on another line plus Bergy a shell of his former self in terms of scoring, it hurt Marchand.

It's McAvoy for sure, and I think Meier too. Then it's Marchand or Hedman, and I'd pick Hedman if d-men are more coveted. Otherwise, I'd roll the dice with Marchand, especially after he looked dynamic in the playoffs despite the Bs being unceremoniously bounced in round one.

Topic #6 – In a 20 team 4C, 4LW, 4RW, 7D, 2U, 2G league with categories of G, A, PTS, PIM, PPPts, SHP, GWG, Hat Tricks, HIT, BLK, SOG, W, GA, GAA, SV, SV%, SO, who is the better own, David Pastrnak or Matthew Tkachuk?

Getting either one of these guys on one's fantasy team is amazing. Choosing between them is, not surprising, pretty difficult, what with Tkachuk seemingly having entered the true upper echelon of forwards this season and Pasta proving his success was not, as some had thought, a by-product of playing with Brad Marchand and Patrice Bergeron.

One thing I'll say from the get go is yet again in 2022-23 LW, which Tkachuk plays, proved to be a deeper position than RW, which is Pasta's position, as 11 LWs scored at a point per game rate of better, versus just eight RWs. I realize when talking about guys like this we're well above the point per game mark; but all things otherwise equal Pastrnak – as a RW – would have more value due to his position being one where it's not as easy to find top tier production.

On the other hand, with Tkachuk there are no question marks when it comes to the Florida top six, so it's a lock that Tkachuk will be surrounded by talent. On the other hand, in Boston it's not clear if Patrice Bergeron and/or David Krejci will be returning next season, and that, as great as Pasta proved himself to be, does raise question marks.

Reflexively, one would see categories like PIM, HIT and BLK and think Tkachuk has to hold a big advantage; but not so fast. Yes, he has far and away more PIM than Pasta, but Pasta actually had more HIT and BLK, albeit by far less a margin than Tkachuk's edge in PIM. Still, Pasta also was huge in SOG and G, and, it goes to follow, would have a better chance at Hat Tricks, yet of the two only Tkachuk plays on the PK, and he did get a SHP this season.

Not surprisingly, this is a close call. If they were both LWs, I'd probably go with Tkachuk due to the uncertainty in terms of Boston's line-up next season. But still, Pasta, a RW, was able to tally ten points in six games Krejci missed at the end of the season, when instead he was centered by Pavel Zacha, who we do know will be back for the Bs in 2023-24. I think that in the end, Pasta's production from the shallower RW position and his goal scoring, which is harder to find than assists, plus Thachuk only holding an major edge in PIM, make me inclined to go with Pasta by a narrow margin. It's close enough that picking Tkachuk certainly would not be "wrong."

Topic #7 – Where does Frederick Andersen go from here? Given how he's looked in the playoffs, will the Canes re-sign him? If not and he goes elsewhere, can he still be a true #1?

Let me say this right off the bat – I think Andersen has been overrated for most of his career. In part this is due to him having played in high profile Toronto for as long as he did, plus the fact he's been a true #1 for so long.

The reality is Andersen will be 34 years old at the start of 2023-24; and although goalies can and do often play well into and beyond their mid-30s, Andersen is showing signs of his age, notably the fact that he's missed chunks of time in two of the past three seasons. Looking at his numbers from even when he was in his prime, they're not really that great. In fact, he's had six seasons of 52+ GP, with his GAA over 2.67 in four and a mere one season with a SV% above .919. He also never had more than five shutouts in a season, reaching that mark once. That's nine of ten seasons with four or fewer SO despite playing 24+ games in each. Dating back to 1990-91, the only other goalies who also failed to record five+ shutouts in nine of their first ten seasons, playing 24+ games in each, were James Reimer and Trevor Kidd. Ouch!

Do I think Andersen might've upped his effort level for the playoffs? It wouldn't shock me given he was playing for his NHL future after an iffy at best regular season in terms of injury and stats. Although his best SV% was in one of the past four seasons, so too were his three worst. It's the same story with GSAA; and he also had his two worst GAAs and his worst and third worst Really Bad Start percentage.

I suspect an NHL team will see Andersen as their savior and sign him to a deal bestowing upon him the #1 gig; but that will be as much, if not more, so because the only other goalie of similar caliber who could be on the market is Tristan Jarry as due to deservedness. We know that when there isn't a lot of competition at a position in the UFA market – especially goalie – it can lead to overpaying and deals teams live to regret.

If I was in a cap league, I'd leverage Andersen's postseason play to trade him now, as I think his value is unlikely to ever be as high again. I believe that'll be the case even if he inks a new deal to stay with the Canes or goes to another top caliber team. In a one year league, I fear his name value, especially coming off a strong playoffs and post-UFA hype, will cause his price to rise undeservedly. He's someone to let others grab. Long story short, I'm keeping my distance from Andersen given his injury issues and recent season trajectory.

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Questions for Mailbag column needed

The upcoming edition of my monthly mailbag has plenty of room for questions. To get yours to me, you can either private message “rizzeedizzee” via the DobberHockey Forums, or send an email to [email protected] with “Roos Mailbag” as the subject line.