Ramblings: Playoff Thoughts on Hintz, Bouchard, Pavelski, Bertuzzi, Martinook, Schultz & More (May 17)

Alexander MacLean

2023-05-17

We're now halfway through the playoffs if you're counting by round, but if you're counting by games played the playoffs are about 80% complete. With no games on the docket Tuesday night, this seems like a good time to look at some stats.

Roope Hintz has gone a bit bananas in the playoffs this year, and in my mind may be the most underrated player in the league. His 19 points in 13 games are second only to Connor McDavid's 20 at this point, and he has done this averaging only 18:30 of ice time per game compared to McDavid's 23:40.

Hintz is an exceptional and underappreciated defensive player, while also putting up point-per-game seasons. Another player often dubbed as very underrated is Aleksander Barkov, but if you compare the two, the numbers and impacts are eerily similar, with Barkov generally being the much more favored player. If Dallas wins another round or two, he may finally get the recognition he deserves there.

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Excluding the game where Miro Heiskanen left due to an injury, he has averaged 30 minutes per game this post-season. That is a lot of hockey to be playing. I think with this run and how he is standing out, he may just have to put up the same regular season he just did, and be considered the Norris Trophy front-runner next year on the basis of "we're finally appreciating him and it's his turn".

On the flip side – and this may work against Hintz as well with him also having some injury history – but for the overall Dallas team with how top-heavy they are, it does worry me a little with how they may come out next season. I'm wondering if there may be a bit more of a visible hangover due to the heavy usage on the top players, in addition to Joe Pavelski turning 39 this summer, and the inevitable statistical regression from Jamie Benn.

This is just me noting it down so if/when the Stars get off to a slow start next year, no one is panicking.

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Evan Bouchard finishes his run in the 2022-23 playoffs leading the league in power play points by a sizeable margin. His 15 points are three ahead of McDavid's 12, and seven ahead of any non-teammates (Hintz and Jason Robertson are each at eight and counting).

Bouchard's power play time and overall ice time went through the roof after Tyson Barrie was traded, and he put up 16 points in his final 18 games of the season as well, then upped it further to 17 points in 12 games in the playoffs. If he is not taken in the top-five defencemen off the board in fantasy leagues next season, then he should be considered at your next pick. Assuming he's healthy it's tough to see him finishing outside of the top-10 defencemen in fantasy next year, with upside to finish in the same stratosphere as Adam Fox and Cale Makar.

One interesting thing to note though, is that Bouchard's shot rate went down as the season went on, and in his last 18 games, he only registered 29 shots. That would be a bit of a red flag for most, but to me it seems to say that he has sorted out how to more effectively get the puck to McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, leading to the higher scoring rate combined with the lower shot rate.

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Two former diamonds in the rough that were developed by the Tampa Bay Lightning have made huge impacts on the playoffs thus far. Those two are Carter Verhaeghe and Yanni Gourde. Verhaeghe is one of the least-heralded wingers in the game, and it seems that he just continues to thrive in that role.

Gourde meanwhile is building up a reputation as a big-game player, upping his production in game sevens especially. Unfortunately, he couldn't pull any magic out this time around, but his reputation for it is growing. In the regular season though, he is still a 50-point player, and has finished within the 49- to 53-point window in four of the last five seasons. Odds are he is going to be right in that window again next year.

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Both Pavelski and Max Domi are playing exceptionally well for the Stars right now, and in Pavelski's case it's even more noteworthy after he missed most of round one with a concussion. As I mentioned he turns 39 this summer and he only has one more year left on his current contract. I do wonder if they win the cup what Pavelski's desire is to go through another rigorous summer and then the grind of a full season. He's really a wild card, but to this point he is defying father time with excellent hockey sense and an elite hand-eye coordination.

Max Domi is someone that is a little more likely to move on from the Stars, being a free agent and looking for somewhere that can afford to sign him to a long-term deal after he has bounced around to four different teams in the last two years. His 57-point pace was the second-best of his career thus far, and he has upped it to a 69-point-pace in the playoffs.

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Tyler Bertuzzi really saved his season after the trade to Boston. With 16 points in 21 games in the regular season (and after finishing hot with seven in his last four) the upcoming unrestricted free agent the scored 10 points in five playoff games, to go with his 21 shots, 18 hits, and 26 PIMs. If that's a sign of what he can do with better linemates, then watch out for him next year if he signs in a good spot this summer. Regardless of where he signs, getting his average ice time back up closer to the 19- to 20-minute range rather than below 17 minutes is a must.

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There are always a couple of players who have a bunch of pucks bounce their way throughout the playoffs, and have that coincide with a hot streak. These usual bottom-third of the lineup players sometimes end up finishing in the upper third of their teams for scoring. This year it looks like two of those players are going to be Jordan Martinook and Justin Schultz.

After Martinook finished with a career-high 34 points in the regular season, he carried the momentum into the playoffs with 10 points in eleven games. However, that is a little misleading, as he was held off the score sheet for the entire series against the Islanders. Then, he turned into a Devils killer with 10 points in that five-game series. He didn't suddenly turn into a top-line player, but it does look like he has some touch to be able to keep his production over the 30-point mark. Not hugely relevant in fantasy leagues, but good for the occasional hot streak, and apparently every time he plays the Devils.

Schultz has a funny history of a good fantasy season followed by a disappointing one. He had a good year this time, pacing for nearly 40 points despite the team balancing two equal power play units. That means we can likely expect him to inexplicably drop off next year. I don't make the rules.

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The DobberProspects group just finished grading each team's prospect pool and you can find the last article including the links to the rest, in here:

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Bad news for the Arizona Coyotes staying in Arizona. Let's see if Gary Bettman continues to try and force the team to stay here, or if this ends up being the first step towards the team moving to Quebec, Houston, or somewhere else. Not hugely fantasy relevant, but a move could mean the team would finally actually spend, improve the supporting cast, and see this team get some outside support to help the growing prospect pool.

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See you next Wednesday. In the meantime, you can find me on Twitter @alexdmaclean if you have any fantasy hockey questions or comments.

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