Ramblings: Knights Win Game 1 of WCF, Dubas Era Over in TO, Frost, Maccelli (May 20)

Ian Gooding

2023-05-20

Game 1 of the Western Conference Final also needed overtime to be decided, although it didn't take nearly as long as Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Final.

Golden Knights 4, Stars 3 OT (Golden Knights lead series 1-0)

Brett Howden scored just 1:35 into the first overtime period to secure a Game 1 victory for Vegas. The Golden Knights were able to win despite giving up two different leads during the third period.

William Karlsson scored a pair of goals for Vegas, giving him goals in back-to-back games and points in three consecutive games.

With 33 saves on 36 shots, Adin Hill has now earned three consecutive wins and three consecutive quality starts. Vegas is believed to have the disadvantage in net in this series, but Hill has yet to have an RBS (really bad start) in six games. The Golden Knights might simply need goaltending that is good enough as opposed to goaltending that is exceptional… along with better injury luck. Hill is a UFA this offseason, so I have no idea what his fantasy value will be like next season.

Roope Hintz scored his 10th goal of the playoffs and added two assists in Game 1. He now has 22 points in 14 games, which means he now leads the playoffs in points. Only Leon Draisaitl (13 goals) has more goals than Hintz during the playoffs. Hintz is also on a roll with five goals in his last five games. He's on the short list for the Conn Smythe if the Stars can get to the final.

Jason Robertson also scored, which was just his third goal in 14 playoff games. This after back-to-back seasons with 40+ goals. Despite the slump, don't worry about moving him down your fantasy rankings for next season. He may not be scoring goals like Hintz or Joe Pavelski during these playoffs, but he has still chipped in 11 assists to stay on a point-per-game pace during the playoffs.

Jamie Benn scored the game-tying goal with just under two minutes remaining. The goal was also just his third of the playoffs.

The first of what could be many changes is taking place in Toronto with the Leafs announcing that Kyle Dubas will not be returning as general manager. A new GM might be more inclined to make some difficult but necessary decisions with the Leafs roster in an attempt to vault them into true Stanley Cup contender status – particularly with a team that is better equipped for the playoffs.

If Dubas does not decide to take time off, he should still be a highly sought after general manager candidate for other teams. I wouldn't be surprised if he lands in Pittsburgh. Calgary would have been a possible destination, but it sounds like they already have a short list of candidates, as per Frank Seravalli.

My own opinion: Dubas has been a decent, forward-thinking GM who leaves the Leafs in a competitive place. Yet I can't help but wonder how successful the Leafs would have been had he not decided to sign John Tavares to a long-term deal. That doesn't mean Tavares has been a bust or that the contract has aged horribly, but maybe the valuable salary cap dollars could have been spent in other ways. For example, more with depth players that seem necessary in the playoffs than highly concentrated among four players.

Also my opinion: Over the past few days, it seems like Brendan Shanahan handled Dubas the way that a hiring manager might handle an applicant among a pool of candidates, not a loyal long-term employee. I'm not sure how Dubas requesting time to think about it results in Shanahan suddenly doing a 180, but I'm guessing that this is really about the two sides not coming to terms about the amount of money, term, and/or control that Dubas would receive. If I were a Leafs fan, I'm not sure I'd be feeling that confident in Shanahan. He really admitted too much in his press conference.  

You shouldn't have a difficult time finding takes about how this news could affect Auston Matthews and company, but to summarize, all bets are off as to how this roster could be constructed going forward. As well, Sheldon Keefe's future as the head coach seems in doubt since he was Dubas's hire. A new GM may prefer their own coach.

Speaking of Matthews, the chances of him signing as a free agent with the Coyotes next summer don't seem all that high if the Coyotes don't know where they'll be playing beyond next season. Maybe it's time to throw cold water on that idea.

Staying with the Coyotes, Logan Cooley will be returning to the University of Minnesota in 2023-24. Cooley was the third overall pick in last year's draft, but we'll have to wait at least another season for him. As a freshman, Cooley led the University of Minnesota in scoring with 60 points in 39 games on a team that included Jimmy Snuggerud and Matthew Knies. Cooley was also a Hobey Baker finalist and likely a strong candidate again to win the award outright next season. He's clearly a blue-chip prospect, but the highly volatile situation in Arizona might not be the best place for him right now. Keeper leaguers will need to wait at least one more season to activate him, but it sounds like he could be worth the wait.

Here are the top Frozen Tools searches from the past week:

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Eight of the 10 players listed are from playoff teams (or at least teams that were recently eliminated from the playoffs), which might explain the searches for their profiles. I'll concentrate on the two players from non-playoff teams and why they might be of interest.

Morgan Frost

Frost played his first full-time season with the Flyers in 2022-23, and it was a season where he made some forward progress. Thanks to finishing the season with 17 points in his last 20 games, Frost finished the season fourth on the Flyers with 46 points in 81 games. Frost received over two minutes more per game over last season, with his icetime gradually increasing throughout the season to the point where he reached nearly 18 minutes per game during the final quarter.

One area that Frost will need to improve on to be a more significant fantasy threat is his power-play point total. Even though he finished just under 50% of the available power-play minutes, he registered just five power-play points. The Flyers having the second-worst power play in league (15.6 PP%) has something to do with that. Aside from that peripherals-wise, Frost has averaged just under two shots a game and a hit per game, which are okay numbers but not outstanding by any means.

Frost is part of a young group of forwards that were quickly moved into an expanded role with various injuries to Philadelphia veterans such as Sean Couturier and Cam Atkinson. At age 24, he has marinated long enough in the OHL and AHL and should stick with the Flyers going forward. The question is whether he can maintain icetime if Couturier in particular returns to the lineup next season.

Matias Maccelli

Even after 23 games last season, Maccelli still qualified as a rookie this season. He had put up 57 points in 47 games last season in the AHL, so he had appeared to be NHL ready. That's exactly what happened, as Maccelli's late-season run of 19 points in his last 20 games helped push him to 49 points in 64 games. Among Coyotes regulars, only Clayton Keller and Nick Schmaltz had more points per game than Maccelli (0.77 PTS/GP). 

Maccelli might be more valuable in points leagues than in multicategories leagues. For one, he's relatively light on goals but heavy on assists. Only 11 of his 49 points were goals, and 12 of his 13 points to start the season were assists. In addition, he averaged about a shot per game to go with just 18 penalty minutes and 24 hits. Obviously, he's not a player to target in bangers leagues. In addition to that, an 18% shooting percentage means that his goal total could actually fall next season if he maintains the same number of shots.

The upside for Maccelli might be with the Coyotes' situation itself. With the team in a deep rebuild state and quite possibly on the move, Keller and Schmaltz could be on the move. That could elevate a player like Maccelli onto the top line, even if won't be many stars around him.

Finally, congratulations to the Seattle Thunderbirds for winning the WHL championship! They are off to the Memorial Cup in Kamloops, where they will face another WHL superteam in the Blazers, as well as the OHL champion (Peterborough leads London 3-2) and the QMJHL champion (Quebec leads Halifax 3-2). This Seattle team loaded up for a long playoff run, featuring top prospects such as Dylan Guenther, Brad Lambert, and Kevin Korchinski.

Follow me on Twitter @Ian_Gooding for more fantasy hockey.

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