Every Sunday, we share 21 Fantasy Rambles from our writers at DobberHockey. These thoughts are curated from the past week’s 'Daily Ramblings'.

Writers/Editors: Ian Gooding, Michael Clifford, Alexander MacLean and Dobber

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1. Entering Game 2 against the Stars on Sunday, Adin Hill has now earned three consecutive wins and three consecutive quality starts. Vegas is believed to have the disadvantage in net in this series, but Hill has yet to have an RBS (really bad start) in six games. The Golden Knights might simply need goaltending that is good enough as opposed to goaltending that is exceptional… along with better injury luck. Hill is a UFA this offseason, so I have no idea what his fantasy value will be like next season. (may20)

2. Roope Hintz scored his 10^th goal of the playoffs and added two assists in Game 1. He now has 22 points in 14 games, which means he now leads the playoffs in points. Only Leon Draisaitl (13 goals) has more goals than Hintz during the playoffs. Hintz is also on a roll with five goals in his last five games. He’s on the short list for the Conn Smythe if the Stars can get to the final.

As for Jason Robertson, he has three goals in 14 playoff games. This after back-to-back seasons with 40+ goals. Despite the slump, don’t worry about moving him down your fantasy rankings for next season. He may not be scoring goals like Hintz or Joe Pavelski during these playoffs, but he has still chipped in 11 assists to stay on a point-per-game pace during the playoffs. (may20)

3. The first of what could be many changes is taking place in Toronto with the Leafs announcing that Kyle Dubas will not be returning as general manager. A new GM might be more inclined to make some difficult but necessary decisions with the Leafs roster in an attempt to vault them into true Stanley Cup contender status – particularly with a team that is better equipped for the playoffs. (may20)

4. My own opinion: Dubas has been a decent, forward-thinking GM who leaves the Leafs in a competitive place. Yet I can’t help but wonder how successful the Leafs would have been had he not decided to sign John Tavares to a long-term deal. That doesn’t mean Tavares has been a bust or that the contract has aged horribly, but maybe the valuable salary cap dollars could have been spent in other ways. For example, more with depth players that seem necessary in the playoffs than highly concentrated among four players.

Also my opinion: Over the past few days, it seems like Brendan Shanahan handled Dubas the way that a hiring manager might handle an applicant among a pool of candidates, not a loyal long-term employee. I’m not sure how Dubas requesting time to think about it results in Shanahan suddenly doing a 180, but I’m guessing that this is really about the two sides not coming to terms about the amount of money, term, and/or control that Dubas would receive. If I were a Leafs fan, I’m not sure I’d be feeling that confident in Shanahan. He really admitted too much in his press conference. (may20)

5. You shouldn’t have a difficult time finding takes about how the above news could affect Auston Matthews and company, but to summarize, all bets are off as to how this roster could be constructed going forward. As well, Sheldon Keefe’s future as the head coach seems in doubt since he was Dubas’s hire. A new GM may prefer their own coach.

Speaking of Matthews, the chances of him signing as a free agent with the Coyotes next summer don’t seem all that high if the Coyotes don’t know where they’ll be playing beyond next season. Maybe it’s time to throw cold water on that idea. (may20)

6. Staying with the Coyotes, Logan Cooley will be returning to the University of Minnesota in 2023-24. Cooley was the third overall pick in last year’s draft, but we’ll have to wait at least another season for him. As a freshman, Cooley led the University of Minnesota in scoring with 60 points in 39 games on a team that included Jimmy Snuggerud and Matthew Knies. Cooley was also a Hobey Baker finalist and likely a strong candidate again to win the award outright next season. He’s clearly a blue-chip prospect, but the highly volatile situation in Arizona might not be the best place for him right now. Keeper leaguers will need to wait at least one more season to activate him, but it sounds like he could be worth the wait. (may20)

7. Morgan Frost played his first full-time season with the Flyers in 2022-23, and it was a season where he made some forward progress. Thanks to finishing the season with 17 points in his last 20 games, Frost finished the season fourth on the Flyers with 46 points in 81 games. Frost received over two minutes more per game over last season, with his ice time gradually increasing throughout the season to the point where he reached nearly 18 minutes per game during the final quarter.

One area that Frost will need to improve on to be a more significant fantasy threat is his power-play point total. Even though he finished just under 50% of the available power-play minutes, he registered just five power-play points. The Flyers having the second-worst power play in league (15.6 PP%) has something to do with that. Aside from that peripherals-wise, Frost has averaged just under two shots a game and a hit per game, which are okay numbers but not outstanding by any means.

Frost is part of a young group of forwards that were quickly moved into an expanded role with various injuries to Philadelphia veterans such as Sean Couturier and Cam Atkinson. At age 24, he has matured long enough in the OHL and AHL and should stick with the Flyers going forward. The question is whether he can maintain ice time if Couturier in particular returns to the lineup next season. (may20)

8. If you stayed up late enough for Game 1 between the Panthers and Hurricanes last Thursday, you got to watch the equivalent of over two games. Yes, it was the longest game of the season and the sixth-longest game in NHL history.

@StatsCentre:
(Update) Longest ever games in playoff history:
116:30- Red Wings def. Maroons (1936)
104:46- Maple Leafs def. Bruins (1933)
92:01- Flyers def. Penguins (2000)
90:27- Lightning def. Blue Jackets (2020)
80:48- Mighty Ducks def. Stars (’03)
79:47- Panthers def. Hurricanes (’23)

On top of that, this game was only 12.7 seconds away from going to a fifth overtime. Matthew Tkachuk finally sent everyone to bed with a long-awaited game-winning goal for Florida.

Sergei Bobrovsky stopped 63 of 65 shots for the Panthers, while Frederik Andersen also earned his paycheck in stopping 57 of 60 shots.

Some insane ice time totals:

Brandon Montour: 57:27 – also 8 SOG
Gustav Forsling: 56:10
Brent Burns: 54:43 – also 8 SOG, 5 HITS, 9 BKS
Aaron Ekblad: 52:10
Jaccob Slavin: 51:41 (may19)

9. Last week I discussed a few goalies that were picked in the later rounds of single-season drafts that turned into hidden gems. These goalies serve as evidence that the Zero G system of drafting goalies (waiting until the later rounds) will actually help your team. Of course, it’s not a perfect system, since at least some goalies drafted late or not at all will not perform well at all.

Conversely, several goalies drafted early (before pick 100 on average) did not meet those expectations. Drafting one of these goalies would have sunk your team’s chances of winning a fantasy championship. Let’s identify these goalies and determine whether there were any warning signs about these goalies before the season.

For example, Thatcher Demko (Yahoo ADP 54): Maybe we expected too much out of Demko before the season. After all, I’d seen him being picked as a Vezina Trophy candidate by a few experts. After a late-season surge under Bruce Boudreau, the Canucks appeared to be more serious about landing a playoff spot, with Demko a workhorse goalie that could push for 30+ wins.

That idea came crashing down when the Canucks got off to another awful start, often leaving Demko out to dry during the early part of the season. That was followed by a lower-body injury that was supposed to last just six weeks, but instead ate nearly three months of Demko’s season. I usually avoid injured players when analyzing studs and duds, but the start was so rough (3-10-2, 3.93 GAA, .883 SV%) that it is worth mentioning here.

The good news is that when Demko returned, he finally delivered on some of that preseason value. Under the improved structure of new coach Rick Tocchet, Demko was much improved with an 11-4-2 record, a 2.52 GAA, and a .918 SV%. Those numbers were definitely worth rostering, although it might have been too late for fantasy teams that drafted Demko.

The Canucks haven’t been able to put it together for a full season, which is why Demko shouldn’t be among the top-tier goalies. If the Canucks improve enough to make the playoffs, Demko will likely be a second-tier goalie. As well, Tocchet will need to ensure Demko isn’t overworked, which means the Canucks will need to ensure they have a reliable backup – something that won’t be easy to do given their tight cap situation.

[Follow the link for two more goalies that fit the group above…] (may19)

10. According to Corey Sznajder’s tracking data, all four remaining teams were above average by shots created off the forecheck in the regular season. Of the 18 teams to be above the league average by shots off the forecheck/cycle, 13 of them made the playoffs, and none of the three postseason teams that were below average (Boston, Seattle, Los Angeles) remain.

Officially, I have Vegas and Carolina going through, but these are both incredibly close series. They should be a lot of fun to watch at the very least.

For the entire Dobber Panel of picks for the second round, check out the voting here. (may 18)

11. The offseason fantasy reviews of all the non-playoff teams continued in last Thursday’s Ramblings, as we headed to California and checked in on the San Jose Sharks. Since the regular season finished, we learned that Erik Karlsson was nominated not only for the Norris Trophy, but for the Ted Lindsay (MVP as voted by the players). That fact makes the rest of this article sad, funny, or both.  

This review will cover the successes and failures of the players and team, where they improved or declined, and where the Sharks go from here. Even on a team heading to a full rebuild like San Jose, there is no shortage of discussion points.

Offseason Reviews thus far:

Buffalo
Calgary
Pittsburgh
Nashville
Ottawa
Vancouver
Detroit
St. Louis
Washington
Arizona
Philadelphia
San Jose (may 18)

12. Roope Hintz has gone a bit bananas in the playoffs this year, and in my mind may be the most underrated player in the league. Entering Saturday, his 22 points in 14 games were better than Connor McDavid‘s 20 for the playoff lead and he had done this averaging only 18:29 of ice time per game compared to McDavid’s 23:40.

Hintz is an exceptional and underappreciated defensive player, while also putting up point-per-game seasons. Another player often dubbed as very underrated is Aleksander Barkov, but if you compare the two, the numbers and impacts are eerily similar, with Barkov generally being the much more favored player. If Dallas wins another round or two, he may finally get the recognition he deserves there. (may17)

13. Evan Bouchard finished his run in the 2022-23 playoffs leading the league in power play points by a sizable margin. His 15 points are three ahead of McDavid’s 12.

Bouchard’s power-play time and overall ice time went through the roof after Tyson Barrie was traded, and he put up 16 points in his final 18 games of the season, as well, then upped it further to 17 points in 12 games in the playoffs. If he is not taken in the top-five defensemen off the board in fantasy leagues next season, then he should be considered at your next pick. Assuming he’s healthy, it’s tough to see him finishing outside of the top-10 defensemen in fantasy next year, with upside to finish in the same stratosphere as Adam Fox and Cale Makar.

One interesting thing to note, though, is that Bouchard’s shot rate went down as the season went on, and in his last 18 games, he only registered 29 shots. That would be a bit of a red flag for most, but to me it seems to say that he has sorted out how to more effectively get the puck to McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, leading to the higher scoring rate combined with the lower shot rate. (may17)

14. Two former diamonds in the rough that were developed by the Tampa Bay Lightning have made huge impacts in this year's playoffs: Carter Verhaeghe and Yanni Gourde. Verhaeghe is one of the least-heralded wingers in the game, and it seems that he just continues to thrive in that role.

Gourde meanwhile is building up a reputation as a big-game player, upping his production in game sevens especially. Unfortunately, he couldn’t pull any magic out this time around, but his reputation for it is growing. In the regular season though, he is still a 50-point player, and has finished within the 49- to 53-point window in four of the last five seasons. Odds are he is going to be right in that window again next year.(may17)

15. Tyler Bertuzzi really saved his season after the trade to Boston. With 16 points in 21 games in the regular season (and after finishing hot with seven in his last four) the upcoming unrestricted free agent the scored 10 points in five playoff games, to go with his 21 shots, 18 hits, and 26 PIMs. If that’s a sign of what he can do with better linemates, then watch out for him next year if he signs in a good spot this summer. Regardless of where he signs, getting his average ice time back up closer to the 19- to 20-minute range rather than below 17 minutes is a must. (may17)

16. The Kraken's Justin Schultz has a funny history of a good fantasy season followed by a disappointing one. He had a good year this time, pacing for nearly 40 points despite the team balancing two equal power play units. That means we can likely expect him to inexplicably drop off next year. I don’t make the rules. (may17)

17. The DobberProspects group just finished grading each team’s prospect pool and you can find the last article, including the links to the rest, here. (may17)

18. The seven-game defeat to the Stars ended what was a very successful campaign for the second-year Kraken. The injuries to Andre Burakovsky and Jared McCann challenged their depth, and they still managed two seven-game series against two of the best teams in the West. Philipp Grubauer had a solid series, which is a good sign for him and Seattle moving forward after some tough stretches these last two years. (may16)

19. Connor Bedard changes the fantasy hockey landscape (obviously) and the No.1 guy I am targeting is Lukas Reichel. But, be forewarned, his price is already jacked sky-high. Believe me, I’ve tried (did not succeed).

No.2 guy to target – Kevin Korchinski. That power play is going to be smoking, and in two or three years this guy will be piling up Evan Bouchard-level points. If Korchinski makes the team in the fall, and he could but it’s no guarantee, I wouldn’t expect the huge production right away. As with all prospects, it’s a process. Seth Jones will be the man for the first three years, taking PP time and production away from Korchinski the way Tyson Barrie took big numbers away from Bouchard.

No.3 on the list is Frank Nazar, who will return to college for next season. Still, long-term he’s a favorite to play on Bedard’s wing. And even on his own Nazar will be a dynamite player.

20. These are longer-term pickups, for the most part. But I really believe Reichel will be immediate. For other ‘immediate’ help, I look at the current roster. Who led the team in assists that could be a setup man for Bedard’s snipes? Who led the team in goals that could be on the receiving end of Bedard’s sweet passes? Since Andreas Athanasiou is a UFA this summer and may not be back, and since I don’t trust him anyway, we have to look to Taylor Raddysh and his 20 goals. He could be Bedard’s other option. Raddysh, Bedard, Reichel?

Jones led Chicago in assists, and I would expect him to flirt with 60 points this year. In fact, he’s the only proven stud left on the team that can play with Bedard. But Philipp Kurashev is going to be a fine setup man, too, and I wonder if he gets a look on Bedard’s line. As a bonus – Kurashev is almost at his BT. He’s played 191 career games, so 2023-24 will be his breakthrough season, according to our model, assuming he fully recovers from his shoulder injury.

Another thought: Who will Chicago sign as a free agent? Are they still going to build, and thus sign one-year rentals they can trade at the deadline? That’s not a bad idea. Think about it – a player they bring in just for one season of playing with Bedard. His numbers would get seriously inflated, thereby bringing in a huge return on a trade. Moving a player with 30 points at the deadline…or that same player with 50 points because of Bedard. Huge difference. I don’t see Patrick Kane, Ryan O’Reilly, Tyler Bertuzzi, Jason Zucker, Alex Killorn, JT Compher or Vladimir Tarasenko as “rentals”. But what about James van Riemsdyk, Max Pacioretty, Jonathan Drouin, Tomas Tatar or Gustav Nyquist? Or bring back Max Domi? That “rental” or two could be huge. But his trade value will be over-inflated as soon as he signs. You could always try to acquire one of these players on the cheap beforehand, and hope you hit paydirt on July 1!

21. Eeli Tolvanen is really coming into his own under Seattle’s system. Elite potential. Raw skills that just needed to be patiently honed. A lot of organizations would chew him up and spit him out, but the right one could really coax that inner star out of him. He has a BT season coming up in 2023-24 and I think it will approach 0.75 points-per-game average. The most interesting thing about what Seattle did with him? They put him in the press box for the first seven games after his arrival. He practiced with the team, was given time to learn the system, and had zero pressure.

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Have a good week, folks – stay safe!!

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