One of the biggest mistakes a fantasy general manager can make is believing a player who had a career year will continue that success next season.

I was at a poker game with some buddies recently, and one of them was bemoaning the fact that the likes of Nazem Kadri and Chris Kreider were having disappointing seasons. However, their numbers this year line up with what they normally produce, outside of that one outstanding season.

Looking at a massive increase in shooting percentages is one good way to investigate who might not be able to continue their success the following year.

I mentioned this last week in the column about the top 10 players with deflated shooting percentages, but for a quick recap: Say a player finishes with 200 shots in a season and scores on 12 percent of their shots. That’s 24 goals. If they score on seven percent of their shots, they only score 14 goals. Going five percentage points the other way, up to 17 percent, puts them at 34 goals. So in this scenario, an increase or decrease of five percentage points can have a huge impact on final numbers.

Below are 10 players who saw an inflated shooting percentage this past season that you should be wary of for next year. To be eligible for the list, forwards need to have played at least 40 games in each of the last two seasons and have seen their shooting percentage increase at least five percentage points this season over last year.

10. Kirby Dach

In his first three years with Chicago, Dach finished with a shooting percentage of 7.9 percent, 7.7 percent and 7.8 percent. In his first year with Montreal, that number jumped to 13 percent. However, that high percentage number is slightly skewed thanks to a great last 19 games from Dach. In his first 39 games, he had five goals on 68 shots, a shooting percentage of 7.4 percent, right on average for him. In his last 19 games, he had nine goals on 39 shots, a shooting percentage of 23.1 percent.

9. Anze Kopitar

The Kings captain has become a borderline keeper in many leagues. I have him in a keep-17 points-only league, and he may be one of my drops this season. This season, his shooting percentage was 16.6 percent, the second-highest of his career. But since he only averaged 2.1 shots per game (close to his average in the last few years), he scored 28 goals. This put him at 74 points, tied for his second-best season of the past 11 years. A year ago, he scored on nine percent of his shots. A career average 12.8 percent shooter, with his average shot per game rate, would equate to six fewer goals per season and would bring his point total to sub-70.

8. Claude Giroux

This year was the second time that Giroux has experienced a massive jump in shooting percentage from one year to the next. A year ago, he scored on 10.2 percent of his shots and finished with 21 goals. This year, he potted a goal on 16.4 percent of his shots. That was the second-highest shooting percentage of his career, and it helped him reach a career-high 35 goals. Something to keep in mind is that his career shooting percentage going into last season was 11.1 percent. If he hit that same number this year, he’s a 24-goal scorer who finishes with 68 points instead of 79.

7. Travis Konecny

Konecny is a bit of a quirky choice for this list. He just cracked the 30-goal barrier for the first time in his career, saw his ice time rise more than two minutes per night to a career-high 20:07 minutes per contest, averaged a career-high 3.2 shots per game, and scored on 16.2 percent of his shots, his second-highest mark. However, he played just 60 games. A year ago, he scored on 7.2 percent of his shots, and his career average is 12.3 percent. If he can stay healthy, even if his shooting percentage comes down to normal, and his shot rate declines slightly, he could still hit the 30-goal mark.

6. Pavel Buchnevich

This past year, Buchnevich had the same goals-for-per-game (0.41) as the previous season. A significant drop in shots per game counteracted his huge increase in shooting percentage. A year ago, he averaged 2.7 shots per game and finished with a shooting percentage of 15.1 percent. This season, he averaged 2.0 shots per game and a shooting percentage of 21.1 percent. While he’s generally finished with a high shooting percentage, the 21.1 percent is easily a career high, while the two shots per contest are about average.

5. Jared McCann

The Kraken player thrived in his second season on the west coast, becoming a 40-goal scorer for the first time in his career. That helped him reach a 70-point season, besting his previous high by 20 points. The problem is, aside from his shooting percentage (and thereby goals), most of his numbers stayed the same compared to his first year in Seattle:

2021-22: 74 games, 23 assists, 2.7 shots per game, 65 hits, eight power-play goals, 17 power-play points, 2:36 power-play time per game, 16:08 overall ice time per game

2021-23: 79 games, 30 assists, 2.7 shots per game, 65 hits, seven power-play goals, 16 power-play points, 2:40 power-play time per game, 16:20 overall ice time per game

In his first year in Seattle, his shooting percentage was 13.6 percent. This year it was 19 percent, easily a career high. If he shot the same percentage as a year ago, we’re talking about a 29-goal campaign and a 59-point season. Even a small decrease in shooting percentage could make his season next year slightly disappointing.

4. Brayden Point

Point has always finished with a high shooting percentage. While his 21.7 percent shooting percentage is high (tops among all 40-goal scorers), it’s only slightly higher than his previous high of 21.5 percent back in 2018-19. However, last season we finished with a shooting percentage of 16 percent, which was his lowest in four seasons. Combine a career-high shooting percentage with a career high in shots per game (2.9) and playing an 82-game season for only the second time in his career, it’s easy to see why he finished with his first 50-goal season.

3. Jamie Benn

Benn has been going through a revival this season, but don’t expect it to continue into next year. This year, he finished with a shooting percentage of 17.4 percent, a substantial boost over the 9.9 percent he had a year ago and easily a career high. If Benn had finished with the same shooting percentage as last year, he would have finished with 19 goals instead of 33, and 64 points instead of 78.

2. Alex Tuch

Tuch might be a popular pick next season to reach 40 goals for the first time, but he’s going to need to see an uptick in shots for that to happen. Before this season, he averaged a goal on every 9.9 shots, and in his first year with Buffalo a season ago, he had a shooting percentage of 8.6 percent. This year, that number skyrocketed to 16.6 percent easily a career high. It also helps that he averaged a career-high 2.9 shots per game. This helped lead Tuch to 36 goals, smashing his previous high of 20. If he experiences even a slight drop to a shooting percentage of 14 percent next year, he will need to average 3.48 shots per game over 82 games to reach 40 goals.

1. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins

A year ago, RNH had a career-low shooting percentage of 7.1 percent. We knew a rebound was coming, but we saw too much of a market correction as he more than doubled that number. This year, he scored on a career-high 18.4 percent of his shots. This helped lead to a career-high 37 goals. What’s interesting is that nothing else in his usage really changed. He averaged 2.5 shots per game, but in the previous six seasons, he ranged between 2.4 to 2.6 shots per contest. He was on the top power-play unit, playing 78.4 percent of Edmonton’s power-play minutes, which was in line with his previous four years. His 19:48 minutes per night is pretty much the same as the last few years. It was simply a season where everything went right.