Wild West: Restricted Free Agents in the West

Grant Campbell

2023-05-22

This week we're going to look at the top restricted free agents from the Western Conference. Some of these players might be dealt to other teams, as their salary expectations exceed the capacity of the teams they are currently on.

Other players might not be qualified by their current teams while some players below might cash in on eight-year deals.

I've broken the RFAs into different salary categories, but I'd expect some to move down and others to move up.

$6 Million AAV or more Club:

Pierre-Luc Dubois – Winnipeg – Center (24) $6 million AAV expiring; 73-27-36-63 (+5)

I don't think there is any question that the Jets would love to re-sign Dubois and keep him for the next six or seven seasons. The question is if Dubois wants to remain in Winnipeg.

Dubois has had three 60-point seasons in his six years in the NHL. A big-bodied center who can put up points is a coveted commodity in this league and the Jets could get some good value in a trade. The flip side is that their other top center is Mark Scheifele and he will be an impending UFA this campaign.

The Jets have just under $13 million in cap space for 2023-2024 and if Dubois is seven or eight of that, it puts the team in a tough position with just five or six million left to fill the 10 other free agents they currently have. Something will have to give.

I think Dubois will command north of $7 million AAV whether with Winnipeg or not.

Vince Dunn – Seattle – Defense (26) $4 million; 81-14-50-64 (+28)

The highest paid Kraken player is Phillip Grubauer at $5.9 million AAV. Dunn could change that this summer.

Dunn did everything for the Kraken in 2022-2023, he put up 49 even strength points with just 15 of his 64 total on the power play. He averaged 23:40 per game and had 115 hits and 80 blocked shots.

The Kraken don't have a skater in their lineup who earns more than $5.5 million and I don't think they will want to raise that bar, but they might not have a choice here. I think Dunn will come in at $6 to 6.5 million AAV for six or seven years.

Troy Terry – Anaheim – C (25) $1.45 million; 70-23-38-61 (-8)

The Ducks have over $39 million in cap space for 2023-2024, so they won't be constricted in re-signing Terry, Zegras or Drysdale.

It's easy to look at Robert Thomas and Jordan Kyrou in St. Louis and see that they both signed matching eight year deals at $8.125 million AAV after 2021-2022 and think that Terry and Zegras could be right there. The differences are that Thomas and Kyrou were both coming off of $2.8 million AAV bridge deals and Thomas had 77 points while Kyrou had 75 points before those deals.

Trevor Zegras – Anaheim – C (22) $925k; 81-23-42-65 (-24)

Zegras has had back-to-back 60 point campaigns and can be as exciting a player as any in the league. He does have a few holes in his game which need to be refined before he becomes a star. He has to become much more responsible defensively, improve in the face off circle and become a little less sheltered in zone starts and matchups.

Zegras is the wild card as he might want to gamble on himself over the next two seasons and hope that he could get the $10 million AAV contract rather than the $7 or 8 million which is probably what he and Terry would get now.

I have very little to base this on, but Zegras strikes me as the type of player who might want a little more than Terry, just to make a statement on whose team this is.

Four Million AAV to Six Million AAV Club:

Bowen Byram – Colorado – D (22) $894k; 42-10-14-24 (+7)

Colorado has just over $13 million in cap space for 2023-2024 and need to replace eight UFAs who earned a combined $18 million. They also need to re-sign restricted free agents Byram, Alex Newhook and Denis Malgin.

I believe that the Avalanche will want to bridge Byram at $2 or 3 million AAV for the next two years, to buy some time and keep him happy.

I've said a number of times that trading Samuel Girard and his $5 million AAV for the next four years is an obvious solution, but we will see.

If the team does trade Girard, I think they lock up Byram longer-term for $4.5 to $5 million AAV.

Byram has only played 91 games over the past three years and has little bargaining power so Colorado could play hard-ball, but that rarely works out for long-term player contentment.

Evan Bouchard – Edmonton – D (23) $863k; 82-8-32-40 (+6)

Bouchard took off in the playoffs with 17 points (15 of them on the PP) in 12 games.

The Oilers have just under $6 million in cap space available for 2023-2024 and have to re-sign restricted free agents Bouchard, Ryan McLeod and Klim Kostin. They also have four UFAs to replace who had just over $4 million in salary.

I'm not sure what the Oilers are going to do as Bouchard should be a big chunk of that remaining cap space on his own. As it stands, Edmonton needs to qualify him on a one-year deal and risk upsetting Bouchard or move another player out. Either solution is not ideal.

In an ideal world, I think Bouchard would get over $5 million AAV on a long-term deal and anything higher would be an overpay as Bouchard might be a product of his environment.

Filip Gustavsson – Minnesota – G (25) $787k; 22-9-3 2.10 93.1

The Wild have just over $8 million in available cap space for 2023-2024.

I don't think there is much doubt that Gustavsson has earned a chance at being the starter in Minnesota over Marc-Andre Fleury. The going rate for a starter seems to be about $5 million AAV for four or five years, but with goalies it's always a risk.

Minnesota has five RFAs to re-sign, including Gustavsson, Calen Addison, Mason Shaw, Brandon Duhaime and Sam Steel. They have five UFAs with a total of $16.7 million in expiring contracts to replace.

Minnesota are going to be hard pressed to not take a step back.

Two Million AAV to Four Million AAV Club:

Gabriel Vilardi – Los Angeles – W/C (23) $825k; 63-23-18-41 (+10)

The Kings have just under $7.6 million in cap space for 2023-2024.

Vilardi had career-highs in games played, goals, assists and points. His next contract all comes down to bridging or going long-term. Vilardi has just scratched the surface of what he can do, but he also comes with some injury risk (back).

In my mind, the only prudent solution for player and team is to sign for two or three years at $2 to 3 million AAV and if it costs the Kings more in the long run, so be it.

Ethan Bear – Vancouver – Defense (26) $2.2 million; 61-3-13-16 (+6)

As the Canucks have no cap space entering next season, there is a scenario where they walk away from Bear, Vitali Kravtsov and Travis Dermott as RFAs and let them all become unrestricted.

Bear needs to be qualified at $2.4 million AAV and I think he's right on the bubble whether Vancouver has the space or not. Rumors out of Vancouver are that Bear wants at least $3 million AAV. He's not out of line as that is the average NHL salary and Bear is an average defenseman.

The Best of the Rest

Maxime Comtois – Anaheim – W (24) $2.038 million; 64-9-10-19 (-20)

I just can't see Anaheim qualifying Comtois for $2.2 million for 2023-2024. I can see them signing him for two or three years at less than what he was making. He does offer other elements to his game than goals and assists.

Brett Howden – Vegas – C/LW (25) $1.5 million; 54-6-7-13 (+5)

Howden has had a very good playoffs for the Golden Knights with six points and 41 hits in 13 games.

He hasn't played more than 54 games in three years and has a career high of nine goals and 20 points.

Vegas has very limited cap space for 2023-2024 and Howden might be a victim of cap space.

Morgan Geekie – Seattle – C (24) $1.4 million; 69-9-19-28 (+14)

At his current salary, Geekie is fine value for the Kraken as the fourth-line center. He does have some offensive capabilities and if not for the log jam ahead of him, he could grow into an elevated role.

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Caleb Jones – Chicago – D (25) $1.35 million; 73-4-12-16 (-19)

He's probably not a top-four on most NHL rosters, but in Chicago he might need to be in the short-term. He had 116 hits and 118 blocked shots but he can struggle with or without the puck in his own end at times.

Christian Fischer – Arizona – W (26) $1.126 million; 80-13-14-27 (-7)

If Arizona could sign Fischer for three years at $1.75 to 2 million AAV, it would be a fair deal. He's a big, physical player who added 126 hits while averaging 14:51 of ice time. He can slide up and down from the second to the fourth line. If all the stars aligned, he could score 20 goals.

Morgan Barron – Winnipeg – W (24) $925k; 70-8-13-21 (+4)

Barron was impressive with Winnipeg where he played 70 games and had 118 hits while averaging 13:15 per night. He was able to stick on the third line most nights in a checking role and still managed 21 points. He's good value at around $1 million AAV.

Dylan Samberg – Winnipeg – D (24) $925k; 63-2-6-8 (+10)

Samberg had a decent rookie campaign, albeit averaging just 14:56 per night on the third pairing. He had 91 hits and 93 blocked shots and was a fixture on the penalty kill. The hope is that he continues to improve. Like Morgan Barron, he's good value at $1 million AAV.

Jamie Drysdale – Anaheim – D (21) $925k; 8-0-0-0 (-3)

Unfortunately, Drysdale was injured and played in just eight games. If he was healthy, we might be talking about a much wealthier contract offer.

I think the player and the team need to sign for one year and kind of have a reset to find out his true value when healthy. The arrivals of Olen Zellweger and Pavel Mintyukov will have an influence on the Ducks.

Alex Newhook – Colorado – W (22) $908k; 82-14-16-30 (E)

As it stands, Colorado can't afford to bring back J.T. Compher or Evan Rodrigues who were both ahead of Newhook. This either brings up a tremendous opportunity for Newhook to be in the top-six or Colorado decides he's not ready and possibly moves him elsewhere.

The Avalanche had a similar situation with Alexander Kerfoot after 2018-2019 and dealt him to Toronto where Kerfoot signed a four-year deal at $3.5 million AAV.

William Borgen – Seattle – D (26) $900k; 82-3-17-20 (+11)

Borgen is coming off a career-year in my mind. He had 20 points, was a plus 11 and had 203 hits and 89 blocked shots. It's the ice time that I can't help but focus on at 16:22 per game.

If I was the Kraken I'd be tempted to sell high, as other teams might think that his game translates to 19-20 minutes per game and think his stat line would transfer across seamlessly. It rarely does.

If Seattle doesn't do that, Borgen is still a fine option at less than $1.5 million AAV.

Jack McBain – Arizona – W (23) $884k; 82-12-14-26 (-8)

I find McBain a very intriguing player as he has size, plays as a very physical center and has some offensive skill. He does have some work to do in the faceoff circle and in his own end.

It's rare to have someone who had 304 hits and score 12 goals and post 14 assists while having just 38.5 percent of their zone starts in the offensive zone. The Coyotes could have a future 20-goal power forward on their hands.

Ty Dellandrea – Dallas – W/C (22) $863k; 82-9-19-28 (+9)

Dellandrea rebounded well from spending pretty much all of 2021-2022 in the AHL. He finished with 28 points, 125 hits and averaged 14:12 per night which was top-nine minutes.

He has struggled a little in the playoffs playing in 11 games with just one point and being a minus-five.

The Stars have five current forwards who will be UFAs at the end of the playoffs, so Dellandrea will be an option to slide in for Max Domi or Evgeni Dadonov next year.

Matias Maccelli – Arizona – W (22) 853k; 64-11-38-49 (E)

Maccelli surprised me two or three times in 2022-2023, in making the Coyotes at the start of the year, then putting up 11 points in his first 17 games and lastly not fading when I thought he would. He had 10 goals and 28 assists in his last 47 games.

It shouldn't have been a surprise to anyone really as he had 57 points in 47 AHL games in 2021-2022 and 39 points in 51 Liiga games the year before that.

I still have reservations moving forward as he will need to shoot much more (61 shots), or he will struggle to get to 10 goals going forward. He also will need to be in the top-six, as his game is not suited for the bottom-six. He will need to produce to stay in the NHL.

Ryan McLeod – Edmonton – C (23) $798k; 57-11-12-23 (+4)

McLeod is a bit of an enigma as he can skate like the wind and possesses fairly decent skill. His ceiling on this roster is third-line center, but that's not a bad role on this team as he averages over 14 minutes per game. He just doesn't have any of the big names to help him produce.

He is certainly capable of 20 goals one day, but only averages about 1.4 shots/game so it would be a stretch. As long as he can be a defensively responsible center who continues to improve in the face off circle, he has good value for the Oilers.

Calen Addison – Minnesota – D (23) $795k; 62-3-26-29 (-17)

Addison started out well as the first unit quarterback on the power play. Of his 29 points, 18 were on the man advantage. It was at even strength where he struggled with just 11 points in 62 games and was minus 17 even though he was heavily sheltered.

He didn't dress for much of the stretch into the playoffs and didn't dress for one game in the playoffs. I'm not sure what the short-term plans are for him in Minnesota.

Daniel Sprong – Seattle – W (26) $750k; 66-21-25-46 (+13)

With 3.7 points per 60 minutes and getting 21 goals, one would think that Sprong would sign for more than $2 million AAV. Unfortunately players like Sprong who are on two-way contracts, typically get offered the next step at league minimum on a one-way deal.

He's unlikely to duplicate this season, but he can be a handy player for any team. He's like a DH in baseball, with limited power but who can hit .280.

Denis Malgin – Colorado – W (26) $750k; 65-13-8-21 (+4)

Malgin is the type of contract and player who Colorado needs to fill their bottom-six. He had eight goals and four assists in the final 21 games of the regular season before going pointless in his seven playoff games.

Klim Kostin – Edmonton – W (24) $750k; 57-11-10-21 (+12)

Kostin was a little bit of a revelation in Edmonton. Expectations weren't very high when he was acquired but the big Russian provided some timely offense with 21 points in 57 games to go along with 157 hits.

In the playoffs, even though he averaged just 7:44 per game, he managed three goals, two assists and 38 hits in 12 games.

He's quickly become a fan favorite.

Alexandre Carrier – Nashville – D (26) $750k; 43-2-7-9 (E)

Carrier is one year late on re-signing. In 2021-2022 he played 80 games, with 30 points, was a plus 26, had 95 hits and 124 blocked shots while averaging 20:59 per game. He would have asked for $3 million AAV for three or four years.

Fast forward to this summer and he'll be lucky to sign another three year deal for $750k AAV.

Connor Ingram – Arizona – G (26) $750k; 6-13-1 3.37 90.7

Ingram might have done enough with Arizona to get a two or three year deal as a backup for any number of teams if Arizona doesn't think he's the guy. His moment was a long time coming as he was drafted in the 3rd round in 2016.

Thanks very much for reading and if you have any comments or suggestions, please leave them below or follow me on Twitter @gampbler15

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