Ramblings: Vegas Steam-Rolls Game Three; Toronto’s Moving Players; LA Goalies; Cooley & More (May 24)

Alexander MacLean

2023-05-24

Every year it feels like the Conference Finals are the round that I watch the least of. For some reason they just don't tend to hold the same interest that the other three rounds do. I think it has something to do with the wear and exhaustion from the regular season and then the first two intense rounds, but the pace hasn't yet picked back up to the Stanley Cup Final.

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After Jaime Benn made a bonehead play early in the game cross checking a vulnerable Mark Stone, the Golden Knights really put the pedal down on the Stars. Jake Oettinger got chased early, and has looked human in the playoffs this year. His numbers have slowly trended down after the first half of the season, and it seems that the 24-year-old still needs to adjust a little to the rigors of a long season. He will settle in and become a start-to-finish stud for years, but it's something to keep in mind for next year as well, specifically in one-year H2H leagues, where the last quarter of the season matters the most.

Ivan Barbashev scored a goal and added two assists. He's been an excellent addition to a team that already ran three lines deep. It will be interesting to see if they can fit him under the cap next year, but they should be trying, because he'll be worth whatever they can manage to pay him.

On that note, I will have cap league rankings and then some updated salary projections up over the next few days. Right now I have him projected at around $3.3 million, but if he does end up looking for a bidding war, he could easily find someone that may refer him to Michael Bunting and give him the Zach Hyman deal (I'll get into that a bit more soon).

Adin Hill is making a big push to win the other goaltending spot alongside Logan Thompson next year. He has been spectacular in the playoffs, and has had some great stretches in the past. Meanwhile, Robin Lehner is sitting on the sidelines recovering from surgery. He likely won't be ready for the season start, but his cap hit is going to get him back into the lineup as soon as he's healthy.

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With the uncertainty in Toronto regarding the GM position (and ultimately the coach) it is tough to get a handle on how the roster may look and be utilized come October. The team is going to be starting the season on the road over in Europe, which adds another layer of complexity. The early start and the initial jet-lag may be an issue for them on top of the layers and layers of pressure and scrutiny. Teams starting over in Europe typically get off to slow starts (it stalled the Sharks and Predators last year even before they had a chance to get rolling).

A new coach may be a blessing or a curse for a player like Morgan Rielly, who wouldn't have his power play slot guaranteed. Additionally, with trades and signings unknown, there is still a lot to be sorted out. Generally, at this stage in the offseason I don't try to get too deep into speculation, or make any decisions based on assumptions. However, in addition to keeping an eye on Rielly's deployment, I do have two other players whose values could greatly fluctuate as fallout from the choices the Leafs make in the offseason.

Ilya Samsonov – Samsonov played well enough to be brought back on a multi-year deal, and he shouldn't cost too much that it won't get done. Goaltending is volatile and fickle, except for the very high-end ones. The Leafs don't have an easy path to one of those, so at this point their best way forward is likely trying not to rock the boat, as bringing in a new goalie would just put them a further step back with no familiarity. The opposite would usually stand for if Samsonov goes elsewhere, but despite him switching teams for the first time in his NHL career, his number from the past year were remarkably solid and consistent. He's likely a worthwhile wherever he goes, though he may just need his win totals adjusted depending on the team.

Michael Bunting – The bargain top-six winger is likely going to be cashing out in free agency this year. It's unfortunate for both him and the Leafs that he is leaving on a sour note, and with a reputation that draws the ire of referees. Overall, he positively impacted games, and showed that he can play well with good players. He won't have the success that Zach Hyman has had alongside the dynamic centre duo in Edmonton though, so hopefully no team thinks he needs the same kind of contract, especially with that kind of term. The one thing he does have going for him though is that he's approaching his breakout threshold.

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Logan Cooley is going to be one of the top prospects not in the NHL when the league kicks off again in the fall. He has decided to forego signing his ELC with the Coyotes, and will be returning to the NCAA for the year. He won't be available in Yahoo until next spring at the earliest, but as soon as he is, then he is worth picking up in most keeper leagues. He seems very likely to make an impact at the end of next year, but don't go making any decisions for next year on it, because some of the best teams (like Cooley's) end up going late into the year, and their players only get the last handful of NHL games.

Arizona is accumulating some nice pieces, as Keller is looking like a 90+ point player, Dylan Guenther is likely going to be a full-timer next year, and the other pieces like Nick Schmaltz, Barrett Hayton, Lawson Crouse, Jack McBain, Mattias Maccelli… the list goes on.

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The fun part is on defence, where they are now without Jakob Chychrun and Shayne Gostisbehere, J.J. Moser is going to be fed a lot of power play time with a lot of skilled players. He's someone that I'm going to be targeting next year.

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There is always some intrigue with the goalie carousel, but there isn't usually a huge set of movement, especially on the trade side of things. Goalies often end up becoming free agents and then that's when they more often end up being moved.

However, with the situation in LA right now, they seem primed for a goalie trade. There are a few top goalies that may be available in a trade this summer as well. Between Connor Hellebuyck, Jusse Saros, Thatcher Demko, Linus Ullmark, and Karel Vejmelka on the trade market, and Fredrik Andersen, Tristan Jarry, plus the aforementioned Samsonov on the free agent market. The feeling is that the Kings are really only missing a top-tier goalie as their youth grows in around a solid core, and that they are going to take a big swing this summer.

New Jersey had a great young team and made a big jump from two years ago to last year, with the biggest difference being that they finally got decent goaltending. I'm wondering if we don't see a similar jump from LA next year assuming they get one of the options above. And any of those goalies would be in a great spot with that reliable skater core in front of them.

LA already has two incumbents signed for next year between Cal Petersen and Pheonix Copley, however one seems to be on his way out of the organization one way or another (taking his $5 million cap hit with him) and the other is a journeyman goalie who went on a hot streak and the Kings brass knew they had to upgrade on him at last season’s deadline. If those two are the two goalies to start the year for the Kings, then something will have gone horribly wrong in the team’s planning and/or execution.

The upgrade came in the shape of Joonas Korpisalo who was acquired at the deadline. He is now a UFA, but after many disappointing years in Columbus, his best bet may be to try and get himself re-signed back in LA. He doesn’t have the same ceiling or floor as any of the other external options listed above, but he would be a cheaper and more familiar alternative if the Kings decide just to swing for contact and hit themselves a single in the meantime. What may instead be the deciding factor is the price to move Petersen, and whether they can free up that extra $5 million to have more to spend on goalies.

The Kings don’t have a can’t-miss goalie in the pipeline either at the moment (is there even such a thing), so at some point they will need to sort out what their long-term fix is to last another 10 years. It could end up being one of Erik Portillo, Matt Villalta, or Jacob Ingham, but we won’t know for a few years, and those are some of the prime opening years of this team’s new contention window. They can’t afford to wait that long, and I want to be in on that full-time starter when they decide.

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See you next Wednesday. In the meantime, you can find me on Twitter @alexdmaclean if you have any fantasy hockey questions or comments.

2 Comments

  1. Striker 2023-05-24 at 09:09

    What makes you think Demko, Saros, Vejmelka, or Samsonov are available?

    • Alexander MacLean 2023-05-24 at 14:06

      Samsonov because he’s an RFA with a new GM coming in, plus Murray and Woll under contract (the possibility is there).
      The other three because they have other goalies in the system and are on non-playoff teams where it has been rumoured they have been listening on goalie trades.

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