Ramblings: Stars Extend Western Conference Final; Icetime for Sprong, Mittelstadt, Benn (May 28)

Ian Gooding

2023-05-28

After another sweep seemed inevitable following a disastrous Game 3 for Dallas, the Western Conference Final has slowly but surely become a whole lot more interesting.  

Stars 4, Golden Knights 2 (Golden Knights lead series 3-2)

Ty Dellandrea's two third-period goals within 1:27 of each other were the difference in this game, where the Stars quickly answered both of Vegas's goals. Dellandrea, the Stars' first-round pick (13th overall) in 2018, entered Game 5 with no points in his last eight games. He also missed several games on top of that due to illness and being healthy scratched, so he had hardly been a factor on the scoresheet prior to this game.

With Jamie Benn being suspended and Evgenii Dadonov injured in Game 3, Dellandrea's icetime has increased from the 10-14-minute range to 15-16 minutes per game. Benn is set to return from his two-game suspension for Game 6. However, it appears that Dellandrea's icetime is more affected by Dadonov, since they both play right wing.

Jason Robertson appears to be back in business. He scored again in Game 5, which gives him five goals in the five-game series after he had scored just two goals over the first two rounds.

Thomas Harley chipped in two assists, giving him his first two points of this series. Harley has impressed during the playoffs with nine points (1 G, 8 A) in 18 games.

Despite the loss, Jonathan Marchessault continued his impressive run with two assists in Game 5. Marchessault has a four-game point streak as well as 12 points over his last seven games. Over his four-game point streak, he's taken exactly three shots in each game. With 16 points in 16 games, Marchessault is having his best playoff performance since the Golden Knights' inaugural season, when he scored 21 points in 20 games in their run to the Stanley Cup Final. He also leads the playoffs with 60 shots on goal, which is typically his strongest category in roto leagues. It also helps that he's primarily played on the top line with Jack Eichel.  

Adin Hill's string of six consecutive quality starts came to an end in Game 5, as he allowed four goals on 34 shots. It could have easily been five goals had it not been for this impressive save on Joel Kiviranta in the third period.

As a UFA this offseason, Hill is playing his way into a situation where he can start more games next season, whether that be in Vegas or elsewhere. Hill played a career-high 27 games this season, which seems hard to believe since the Golden Knights used five goalies this season, not including Robin Lehner. Alex projected Hill for $3.2 million in free agency, but some team that likes what they're seeing in the playoffs might be willing to pay more than that.

By the way, you can check out Alex's Updated Salary Projections for the Top-100 Free Agents, which was posted yesterday (Saturday). Spoiler alert: The highest projected UFA (in other words, non-RFA) on this list is… Damon Severson. There should be a ton of signings on July 1 as usual, but there doesn't seem to be that big prize like a Johnny Gaudreau or John Tavares from previous seasons.

One last thing about the Western series. It's funny how both the NHL and NBA conference finals all looked like they were going to end quickly. Four series, four 4-game sweeps. Yet the Boston Celtics have forced a Game 7 after being down 0-3 in their series to the Miami Heat (what a finish to Game 6). Can another green-clad team in the Stars force their own Game 7 after being one game away from being swept? Tune in Monday night to find out.  

Yesterday I discussed two players who had unique icetime totals for different reasons. Today I'll stick with the topic of icetime, this time focusing on three players who delivered strong scoring totals relative to the icetime they received.

Daniel Sprong

Sprong was a kind of statistical anomaly on a Kraken team that was an interesting case study in player deployment. Despite averaging just 11:25 in icetime and being healthy scratched numerous times, Sprong finished with 21 goals and 46 points in 66 games. Over a full 82-game pace, that's 57 points. Among Kraken regulars (minimum 60 GP), only Ryan Donato and Morgan Geekie averaged less icetime. It makes you wonder what Sprong would be capable of with additional opportunity.

Sprong not only has a case for more overall icetime, but also more power-play time. In spite of what amounted to second-team power-play minutes (39.9 PP%), Sprong finished tied for fourth on the Kraken with 14 power-play points. It might be a tight squeeze, as eight Seattle players had at least 10 power-play points.

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The Kraken are a mostly-constructed roster with as many arbitration-eligible RFAs (like Sprong) than UFAs. If Sprong stays in Seattle, then not much might change for him barring injury. If the Kraken happen to walk away from him, then a team in need of a middle-6 forward might like what they see with him, resulting in a better opportunity.

Casey Mittelstadt

Mittelstadt also happens to be a top searched player on Frozen Tools over the last 24 hours, so there's already a lot of interest in him. His 2022-23 season (59 points) should be considered a breakout, as he hadn't reached 30 points in any of his previous five seasons (or parts of them). Mittelstadt averaged just 15:44 in overall icetime, although it's worth mentioning that Don Granato spread out icetime fairly evenly among his team. Tage Thompson, for example, averaged 18:35 in spite of making a serious run for 50 goals and 100 points.

Mittelstadt could be in line to build on his production next season for several reasons. For one, he could be in line for increased icetime. As well, he had a relatively low secondary assist percentage (40.9%), which could mean that he actually builds on his 44 assists. If he finds a way to shoot the puck more (135 SOG, 1.6 SOG/GP), then Mittelstadt could also make a run for 20 goals.

If you were competing for a title during the final weeks of the fantasy season, you may also recall that Mittelstadt was scoring at a near point-per-game pace (20 PTS over his last 21 games). He was particularly hot over the final 10 games, posting 16 points. He's certainly a player to keep tabs on in the later rounds of single-season fantasy drafts for next season, as well as a worthwhile keeper option.

Jamie Benn

This isn't about Benn's boneheaded cross-check to Mark Stone in Game 4, resulting in a two-game suspension.  It's about Benn's overall season, where he saw a major resurgence. With 78 points, Benn posted both his best point total and best point-per-game rate since 2017-18. What's more, he reached this total in spite of the lowest overall icetime average (15:47) since his rookie season.

I was looking for players who might benefit from increased opportunity, but in Benn's case I'm going to steer in the opposite direction. Yes, he has been very productive with his icetime this season, but his advanced stats in multiple categories show a possible regression next season. For starters, his 17.4 SH% is nearly double the 9-10% that he shot over the past two seasons at a similar shots-on-goal rate. As well, all of his 5-on-5 SH% (13.1%), points-per-60 (3.6), and PDO (1065) suggest that he's in for a decline next season.

Back to the icetime. Yes, that could increase. Perhaps the Stars break up the top line of Robertson, Roope Hintz, and Joe Pavelski, or a long-term injury affects one of them. Benn could benefit from increased icetime, but even then, I don't expect that number to jump dramatically for the soon-to-be 34-year-old. For that reason, you'll want to bet the under on Benn reaching his 2022-23 point total. Posting 46-point full-season paces in two of his previous three seasons prior to 2022-23 is evidence of a much lower floor.

Benn's value is significantly higher in multicategory leagues, though. He is still a peripherals giant in hits and faceoffs. He also matched his career best in power-play points while remaining on a potent Dallas top unit, so he should continue to provide decent power-play totals assuming he remains on that unit.

Follow me on Twitter @Ian_Gooding for more fantasy hockey.

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