With this week's article I'm going to look at the teams in the West and focus on potential players from each roster who have the potential to crack 30 goals in a season for the first time in their career.

We are going to look closely at shots on goal using the Dobber's Frozen Tools and focus on shots per game, shots per 60, shots at even strength and shots from different distances.

The average shooting percentage for forwards is around 11-12 percent, so a skater would need to generate at least 200 shots on goal and play 80 games (2.5/g) to even have a chance at 20 goals, let alone 30.

The best goal scorers in the NHL, play on the power play and have a higher percentage of their shots from closer to the net. Currently, Dobber's Frozen tools show SOG from 1 to 15 feet, 16 to 30 and 31 to 45 (blueline). It stands to reason the shooting percentages will increase as the shots get closer to the blue paint.

As an example, Connor McDavid led the NHL with 64 goals on 351 SOG, which was an 18.2 shooting percentage. David Pastrnak was second with 61 goals on 407 SOG which was a 15.0 shooting percentage.

McDavid had 4.3 shots per game and 11.5 shots/60 while Pastrnak had 5.0 shots per game and 15.2 per 60. Over 80 percent of McDavid's shots on goal were within 30 feet, while Pastrnak was lower at 49.6.

It seems simple, but goal scorers typically shoot the puck from inside the circles for a higher scoring percentage or shoot often from everywhere.

Anaheim Ducks

Frank Vatrano had 22 goals in 2022-2023 on a career-high 231 SOG in 81 games which works out to 2.9/g and an impressive 10.3/60. His shooting percentage was 9.5 which is just below his career average of 10.2.

I had a feeling that most of his shots on goal were further away from the net and sure enough 59 percent of his SOG at ES were outside of 31 feet. Only 44 of his SOG were within 0-15 feet.

He led the Ducks in ES SOG with 191 but was third on the team in PP SOG with 37.

Vatrano had 24 goals in 2018-2019 with Florida, but for him to get to 30, he'd have to change his game a little and raise his shooting percentage substantially.

I think he tops out at 22-25 goals unless he establishes himself on the first unit of the PP.

Trevor Zegras has had 23 goals in back-to-back seasons, but he doesn't shoot the puck as much as one would like for a goal scorer. He has peaked in his short career at 184 SOG in 81 games (2.3/g) and 7.2/60.

His career shooting percentage is 11.7 and like Vatrano above he tends to be an outside shooter with 52 percent of his shots outside of 31 feet. He had just 33 SOG inside of 15 feet and just 33 SOG overall on the PP, where he is a fixture on the first unit.

I don't think there is any question that Zegras will reach 30 goals at some point, but I don't think he shoots enough to be much higher than that unless he pops off one year and has a shooting percentage over 20.

Mason McTavish is the player on the Ducks who we should be looking at as a potential 40-50 goal guy at some point. Currently, his shot totals are a little low at 2.0/game and his career shooting percentage is 11, but he has some of the factors needed to get there.

He led the Ducks in SOG on the powerplay with 60, while he was second on the team in SOG from within 15 feet with 59. He had 71 percent of his 161 SOG within 30 feet and had 7.9 shots per 60.

As his ice time increases, his shots per game should increase and he is a fixture on the first unit of the PP already.

He could get 30 goals as early as next year.

Arizona Coyotes

Barrett Hayton ended up with 19 goals on 178 SOG for a 10.7 shooting percentage. He finished with 2.2 SOG/g and 7.4/60. What gives me hope is that he had 99 SOG in his last 39 games which was 2.53 SOG/g and had 14 goals which was a shooting percentage of 14.1 percent. 70.2 percent of his shots were within 30 feet.

He's on the cusp of 25-30 goals.

Lawson Crouse has had between 15.3 and 15.9 shooting percentages over the past two years where he had the same 2.0 SOG/g. He ended up with 24 goals in 77 games after posting 20 goals in 65 games.

For Crouse to reach 30 goals, he will need to play more on the PP and increase the 15 SOG he scored six times on (40% shooting percentage).

Nick Schmaltz has scored 20 goals three times in his career with a high of 23. He's managed 22 and 23 goals in back to back campaigns, but also only managed 63 games in each of them.

Schmaltz has averaged between 2.0 and 2.1 SOG/g and had a shooting percentage between 16.7 and 18.7 when he had 22 and 23 goals.

He has a good shot if he can stay healthy for 75 plus games, but he probably tops out at 35.

Calgary Flames

Mikael Backlund should be capable of scoring 30 goals. He's played 14 NHL seasons and has 20 goals three times with 22 being his career-high. He's never come close.

He has an abnormally low career-shooting percentage for a forward at 8.4 percent and his last three seasons are 7.3, 5.6 and 6.3 percent. He could have 300 SOG and still not come close to 30 goals. His career-high is 259.

20 goals is probably his ceiling at this point.

Dillon Dube has had 18 goals twice in a row. He has averaged 1.8 SOG/g both times and had shooting percentages of 11.9 and 12.6.

For Dube to reach 30 goals one day, he'll need Jonathan Huberdeau to be 80% of the player he was in Florida and set Dube up to where he can put 2.5 SOG/g or more. Dube is unlikely to get there on his own.

Chicago Blackhawks

Taylor Raddysh had 20 goals in his second NHL season. The bad news is that he only managed 1.7 SOG/g and had a 15.5 shooting percentage in 78 games. 71.3 percent of his SOG were within 30 feet, so he has a better chance of replicating his shooting percentage. It's difficult to shoot more and keep your accuracy, but that is the scenario he needs to reach 25 or even 30.

Lukas Reichel was on pace for about 24 goals with seven in 23 games. His shooting percentage was high at 16.7 and his shot pace was fairly low at 1.8/game, but it's a small sample size to draw from. He could see the necessary time on the PP to get 20 next year, but 30 would be a pretty big step that soon in his career.

Colorado Avalanche

Evan Rodrigues has a career-high of 19 goals and he shoots the puck a lot between 2.7 and 3.0 per game split between Colorado and Pittsburgh. It should be a recipe for more goals, but his career shooting percentage is very low at 7.8.

If Rodrigues could get some first unit time on the PP, he could get up past 25 goals, but he'd have to catch lightning in a bottle to reach 30.

Valeri Nichushkin has a career high of 25 goals in 62 games and just needs to play more than 70 games to get there. He had 3.0 SOG/g and had a shooting percentage of around 12.

He's capable of 35 goals.

Artturi Lehkonen had 21 goals in 64 games in his first year with Colorado, which was about a 26 goal pace. In his 7th year in the league it was the first time he got to 20 goals and it was his highest shooting percentage at 14.0. He benefited from eight PPGs with the Avalanche on 39 SOG (4th on Colorado).

His pocket is probably in the 18-22 range, but averaging 20 minutes in Colorado could see him get past 25.

Dallas Stars

Wyatt Johnston had 24 goals on 160 SOG in his rookie season which was a shooting percentage of 15.0. 68.7 percent of his shots were from within 30 feet, which partially explains his higher percentage. As Johnston gets more PP time, he'll improve upon the three PPGs on 28 SOG.

This kid could get more than 40 one day, but there is no guarantee he duplicates 24 next year.

Los Angeles Kings

Trevor Moore shot the puck enough at 2.8 SOG/g but his shooting percentage of 6.1 held him to just 10 goals in 59 games. His career-high is 17 goals in 81 games on 202 SOG (8.4%).

He should get past 20 goals, but a few teams have that player who shoots from bad angles and destroys their shooting percentage in the process. Moore is the Kings guy for that.

Alex Iafallo has a career-high of 17 goals after six seasons with the Kings. His SOG/g has been as high as 2.7 and his high for a shooting percentage was 12.0. Over 80 games that would work out to 26 goals, which is a possibility.

Gabriel Vilardi had 17 goals on 88 SOG (1.96/g) in his first 45 games in 2022-2023. He faded with six goals in his last 18 games on 34 SOG (1.89) and finished with 23 goals in 63 games. He ended up with a shooting percentage of 18.9 and was on pace for 30 goals. He will need everything to come together to get there but he showed it could be done.

What stands out with Arthur Kaliyev is his SOG/60 at 11.2 which is the highest on the Kings. He had 13 goals in 56 games on 2.2 SOG/g while playing only 11:41 per night. He did have eight PPGs on 36 SOG.

He needs to gain the confidence of the coaches, but he's a player who could reach 40 goals one day if everything lined up.

Minnesota Wild

Joel Eriksson Ek has had 23 and 26 goals the past two campaigns with Minnesota. He has increased his SOG/g to 3.2 but saw his shooting percentage go from 11.7 to 9.3.

Eriksson Ek led the Wild with 112 SOG within 15 feet and had 12 PPGs on 72 SOG.

He just continues to get better and could see 30 goals sooner than later. 

Nashville Predators

Tommy Novak had 17 goals in 51 games which was a 27-goal pace. He had a shooting percentage of 18.3 but only 1.8 SOG/g. Almost 71 percent of his SOG came within 30 feet, so there is some hope his shooting percentage won't crater.

If he can get to 20 goals, it would be an achievement in the short-term. Thirty goals might be a stretch.

Luke Evangelista had seven goals in 24 games on 54 SOG (2.3/g) which pro-rates to 24-25 goals. It's tough to envision what a player could do on a small sample, but he shot the puck enough and ended up with a shooting percentage of 13.0. He is still considered a rookie for 2023-2024, so he could be someone to keep an eye on but I think 20 goals would be considered a success in the near future.

Seattle Kraken

Oliver Bjorkstrand had reached 28 goals with Columbus in 2021-2022 and had 20 in his first season with the Kraken. 25 goals is perhaps around his ceiling, but he would need to get back to playing around 18 minutes per game rather than 15-16 and become a permanent fixture on the first unit of the PP in Seattle to have any hope of getting 30.

Matty Beniers had 17 goals in his first 42 games on 86 SOG (2.05/g) but faded in the second half with seven goals in 38 games on 62 SOG (1.63/g).

He's not a big shooter, but over 64 percent of his shots on goal are within 30 feet, so his shooting percentage of 16.2 might be sustainable.

I don't think there is any question that he doesn't get to 30 goals at some point.

Daniel Sprong might have had a career year with 21 goals in 66 games on 147 SOG (2.3/g). The eye opening stat was his 11.7 SOG/60 and on paper he would appear to be a player who should reach 30 goals. The reality is that he is a 26-year old journeyman forward who hasn't played more than 66 games in a season. He also struggled in the playoffs and was a healthy scratch for most of the second round.

For Sprong, it's just a question of opportunity and playing on a regular basis as he is a natural goal scorer.

Eeli Tolvanen had 11 goals in his last 40 games with the Kraken on 80 SOG (2.0/g). He ended up with 18 goals in 61 games split between Nashville and Seattle and set a career high after posting a 15.5 shooting percentage. He's a bit of a perimeter shooter with only 38.8 percent of his shots being within 30 feet.

He has a chance at getting 20-25 goals with an outside chance of 30.

Vancouver Canucks

Anthony Beauvillier has a career-high of 21 goals which he posted while with the NY Islanders in 2017-2018. Last year he had 18 goals on 176 SOG (2.1/g) while having a shooting percentage of 10.2. His best shooting percentage in the past four years was 13.8 where he had 2.3 SOG/g which pro-rates to 26 goals.

If he remains on a line with Elias Pettersson and gets some PP time, he could get 25-30 goals.

Conor Garland had 22 goals while with Arizona in 2019-2020 in just 68 games. He hasn't had more than 19 since. He shoots the puck enough at 2.1 to 2.8 SOG per game over his career but has a fairly low career shooting percentage of 10.6. If everything was to go his way one year, he could get 26-30 goals.

Ilya Mikheyev hasn't played more than 54 games in his first four NHL seasons. In his last year in Toronto he had 22 goals in 53 games on 147 SOG (2.8/g) while having a shooting percentage of 14.3. He matched the shooting percentage in Vancouver but his SOG/g dipped to 2.0 and he only played in 46 games, with a good chunk of those on a bad knee.

If healthy, it's conceivable that Mikheyev could get 20-25 goals with limited PP time and if everything clicked 30.

Vegas Golden Knights

Reilly Smith has had 20 goals or more five times in his career with 27 goals being his highest and 26 being his most recent. Over the past six seasons he's had between 2.3 and 2.7 SOG per game with shooting percentages between 10.7 and 16.0. His ceiling is 35 goals.

Winnipeg Jets

Pierre-Luc Dubois has scored between 20 and 28 goals four times in his six seasons. He seems to have settled in between 2.8 and 2.9 SOG per game and has had an average shooting percentage of 12.8 in his career. He had 27 goals in 73 games last year which should have been his first time with 30 goals.

He'll get there sooner than later.

Nikolaj Ehlers has never had 30 goals, which is hard to believe. He's had 20 goals or more six times in his eight years and had 28 goals in 62 games in 2021-2022. He struggled with injuries in 2022-2023 and played just 45 games where he had 12 goals on 132 SOG (2.9/g) and a shooting percentage of 9.1.

If healthy, he's capable of 40 goals but hasn't played more than 71 games in five seasons.

There are always going to be players like Andrei Kuzmenko who put up seasons like last year where he had 39 goals on 143 SOG (1.6/g) and posted an insane shooting percentage of 26.8. His shooting percentage on the PP was 35.1 where he had 13 goals on 37 SOG. I'm not sure how someone could see that coming or how he will come close to duplicating.

Thanks very much for reading and if you have any comments or suggestions, please leave them below or follow me on Twitter @gampbler15