Welcome back to another edition of the Roos Lets Loose monthly mailbag, where I answer your fantasy hockey questions by giving advice that should be useful to all poolies even if they don't own the specific players being discussed. As a reminder, if you want your fantasy hockey question(s) answered in the next mailbag, check out the end of the column, where I explain the ways to get it/them to me as well as the details you should provide when sending. The earlier you send a question the more likely it is to be included in the mailbag, and the deeper dive I can provide with my reply.

Question #1 (from Austin)

I’m in a 16 team dynasty league with a salary cap the same as the NHL's. The categories are G, A, PPP, SOG, TRUC (Pims + Hits + Blocks), Wins, Saves, GAA. Rosters are 26 players plus 36 farm. We will be undergoing an expansion draft this offseason to add two teams. Each existing team gets to submit a 10-player protection list of their 26-man roster and 36-man farm system. Once one player from your team has been selected in the expansion draft, you're allowed to protect one additional player. Only at most two players can be selected from each team. 

Contracts are a little tricky. There are "E" entry-level deals, which become "A" team-controlled deals, with a set raise based on performance. The "A" contracts become RFAs and are given a contract asking price, with other GM's able to offer a higher amount, in which case either the current owner gets to match or the team that made the higher offer gets the player and gives up a pick as compensation. Signed RFAs become "B" contracts, which become UFAs upon expiration of their deals. Here are the players I’m thinking of protecting, with the RFA price next to RFAs and a number next to E, A, and B contracts indicating how many years left each has left on this current deal:

Elias Pettersson – RFA ($8.7M)
Kyle Connor – RFA ($6.7M)

Clayton Keller – RFA ($6.2M)

Matt Boldy – E1 – $1.2M 

Rasmus Dahlin – A1 – $4.3M

Bowen Byram – A3 – $1.9M

Thatcher Demko – B3 – $6.6M

Marco Rossi – E2 – $1.2M

Calen Addison – E2 – $0.8M

Daniil Tarasov – E2 – $0.5M

Here are some notable players I plan not to protect:

Adrian Kempe – RFA ($6.1M)

Pavel Buchnevich – RFA ($4.4M)

Pierre-Luc Dubois – RFA ($3.9M)

Jack Eichel – B1 – $6.2M

Valeri Nichushkin – B1 – $2.4M

Phil Tomasino – E1 – $1M

Shea Theodore – B3 – $6.2M

Mikhail Sergachev – B3 – $4.9M

Thomas Harley – E1 – $0.8M

Andrei Vasilevskiy – B1 – $7M

My approach was to have a mix of high-end talent and team-controlled assets that could provide value on lower cap hits. This offseason happens to be when lots of my core pieces all go to RFA, so there are a lot of unknowns. I could protect an RFA only to later lose him to an offer sheet (but take the draft pick compensation, which follows a similar structure to the NHL). 

What alterations would you make to my current list? Who would you protect as the 11th player once one is selected, assuming they’re not taken? I know Rossi’s upside is in question based on his size and position, but apart from him and Tomasino my forward prospects are pretty thin. Tarasov is my long-term plan for once Vasilevskiy’s contract is up. 

First off, I think there is a good chance you lose Pettersson and Connor, and maybe even Keller. Can you set a higher price for them, or is this the locked in rate? Either way, I actually like Buchnevich at his rate better than Keller at his, as all Buch has done is score at a higher rate every season of his career, and he's just now entering his peak. Keller is great too; however, at nearly a 50% premium I'm not sure I'd opt to keep him over Buch. Now if you lose Pettersson or Connor, then maybe keep both Buch and Keller. I also think that once Dubois is gone from Winnipeg he explodes. He is a bigger player not far from the 400 game mark where he should be breaking out and we saw a preview of this in the first half. He's a keep. As for Kempe I'd let him go for sure. He score goals, yes, but that's of no added value to you as goals are worth the same as assists.

I'm confused about Vasilevskiy, as you have him down as a non-keep yet say "once his contract is up." Are you keeping him or not? He's not the Vas that he once was; however, at a price tag of less than $1M above Demko, I think he's still a keep. Yes, I realize you only get him for one season, but I still think he's the way to go. Demko is tricky, as I like that you could keep him for three more years; but who's to say how Vancouver – or Demko – will be doing by then.

Can you trade Rossi and Demko for another forward? If so, I'd explore that, since you are correct that I'm not at all high on Rossi but I think others in your league will still be to an extent that him and Demko could land you a nice asset, most likely a forward or perhaps a better cheap goalie than Tarasov, as Tarasov is far from a lock to be a top NHL netminder, plus is on Columbus, who are paying Elvis Merzlikins a decent amount and are likely to be pretty darn bad again next season even if they don't suffer a spate of injuries. I'm not sure Tarasov is keeper material even with Vas gone after next season. Cross that bridge when you get to it.

Addison is a toughie. If the Wild weren't so hamstrung by salary cap penalties the next two seasons I'd say let him go; but they won't be able to go out and get a top d-man, so most likely they'll trot out Addison again, with him hopefully having matured. Still, he's a risky keep, and in the end I'd likely let him go despite him being on an ELC for two more seasons.

I feel like you also need to make room for Sergachev. The changing of the guard is Tampa has either already happened or has been set into motion. Remember that Sergachev is now set to be paid more than Victor Hedman and I think Tampa will bestow Golden Boy status on Sergachev, with Hedman taking on a more defensive role. At that price, and with three years left, Sergachev is a must keep.

So my list of keeps is Pettersson, Connor, Buchnevich, Dubois, Boldy, Dahlin, Byram, Sergachev, Vas, and the forward you get for Demko plus Rossi. If you get outbid on any of the RFAs, the order in which I'd keep other players would be Addison, Keller, Tarasov, and Tomasino. Good luck!

Question #2 (from Ted)

I'm in a ten team keeper, 35 players owned per team, with the top 20 (4C; 4LW; 4 RW; 6D; 2G) counting toward stats, which are Goal/Assist – 1 point; Goalie Win – 2 points; Shutout – extra 2 points; OT/ Shootout Loss – 1 point. I won the first two years but found myself with an older roster going into this season, and based on Dobber's pre-season projections I was going to slide down to the middle of the pack. So I decided to tank and fill my roster with prospects. I now have 46 roster spots and own the first overall pick (Hello Bedard!), plus 4th, 10th and 11th overall as well as several extra monthly picks that can be used during the season.

The way the league works, on the last Tuesday of every month each GM gets to select a player from the OfficePools undrafted list and drop a player. These picks can be traded, and as it happens I have extra picks in September, October, November and December, which is ideal since that is usually when the best players get snatched up. The order of these monthly picks goes from worst to first given the standings at the time. A GM can opt not to make a pick if they don't want to do so.

Also, if in September (i.e., the preseason draft), however many players a GM cuts they get that many picks in that many rounds. So if they cut five, they get picks in rounds 1-5. If they cut six, then they get picks in round 1-6, and so on. These picks are in reverse order of finish from the previous season. Yes, a total of 350 players are owned, but each year there are some decent picks, plus of course the guys who just got drafted to the NHL.

My current team is:

C: Mika Zibanejad, Dylan Cozens; Aleksander Barkov, Evgeni Kuznetsov, Casey Mittlestadt, Anton Lundell, Ryan O'Reilly, Filip Chytil, Ryan Hartman, Barrett Hayton

LW: Matias Maccelli, Nick Schmaltz, Jack Roslovic, Evander Kane, Wyatt Johnston; Alexis Lafreniere, Andre Mangiapane, Jesperi Kotkaniemi, Nicolaj Ehlers, Peyton Krebs, Josh Norris; Nick Robertson, Lukas Reichel

RW: Teuvo Teravainen, Sam Reinhart, Owen Tippett, Pavel Zacha, Patrik Laine, Valeri Nichushkin, Ilya Mikheyev, Kaapo Kakko, Tyler Bertuzzi, Anthony Duclair, Philip Tomasino, William Eklund

D: Evan Bouchard, Samuel Girard, Simon Nemec, Brandt Clarke

G: Semyon Varlamov; Frederick Andersen; Cam Talbot; Thatcher Demko; Philipp Grubauer; Alex Nedeljovic; Robin Lehner

My questions are (1) who and how many players do I cut? I need to drop a minimum of 4 but as noted I can cut as many as I want and then get to pick 1st in rounds 5, 6, 7, etc., (2) where do you see my weaknesses, (3) do I continue to hold fewer defensemen to get better monthly picks, (4) do I entertain offers for the #1 pick (Bedard) who is generational but if I get a very good goalie, defenseman and 1st rounder back, could it be worthwhile to trade away the pick?

This is a lot to process, but I think I've grasped it, or at least the key concepts. While I agree that there could be viable guys even after 350 are picked, my inclination would be not to cut extra players unless you really consider them to be underwhelming.

Let me get the easy answer out of the way. With three other picks in the top 11 you are not trading away first overall. Bedard holds too much promise and you'll already have plenty of picks. Yes, you probably could get a nice haul for him; however, I think the seller's remorse risk is way too high and you have to keep that pick and indeed select Bedard.

I'm not quite sure how you have 46 but only need to drop four when you say 35 players are owned. But if you say you only need to drop four, then that's the basis on which I'll answer your questions.

Looking first at goalie, you have four UFAs to be, of which only Andersen is likely a favorite to ink a deal that gives him a shot at being a #1. I think Varlamov is sneaky decent – far more so than Talbot, and I believe Neds is better than we saw from him in Detroit. Lehner is iffy, but has too much potential if he does manage to come back. Of them, Talbot is the likely drop.

On D, you probably can't afford any drops. At forward it's tough. Mangiapane isn't likely to improve, so he is what he is, which isn't great. I feel similar about Kotkaniemi, although giving up on a player who's only 22 is tough. Krebs looks like he's not NHL ready; but on the other hand his IPPs were above 70% both overall and on the PP, although he still didn't score much and that was with lesser talent. Roslovic is another player who's had chances and failed to deliver. He is still somewhat young though, yet how long can we wait before we realize it's never going to happen for him? Hartman took a big step back; however, Minnesota is under a cap penalty for two more seasons and I feel that he is the best fit for the top line, and will get that spot back in 2023-24. Maccelli put up points but failed to average even one SOG per game, and you're not going to make an impact at the NHL level if you can't clear that hurdle. My sense is Maccelli's success was a by-product of playing for Zona, who had no other choice than to put him out there. Plus, he's not very young either. I'd try to trade him, but if you can't then he's a drop.

I think it's Talbot and Maccelli, plus two of Mangiapane, Kotkaniemi, Roslovic, and Krebs. If it was me, I'd drop Mangiapane and Roslovic, but I can get behind you picking any of the four. Do I think you should cut more than four? Probably not, as I doubt you'd get better players via the draft. As for your team as a whole, of course you need to plug holes on D. I'd try to trade Lundell, who I've said many times I feel will be Jordan Staal 2.0 because he's too good an all-around player and Florida will want him to anchor a two-way line. I'd also dangle Kane's name out there, as Edmonton had such a huge season but he really didn't gel like he did when he first got there, and Zach Hyman looks to have supplanted him as a top option. And we know that once Kane checks out mentally, he can really check out. He has a big lure, and likely could fetch you a decent return. Good luck!

Question #3 (from Jim)

I'm in a league where each team can keep ten players, plus six more rookies. Rosters are 6C, 8W, 6D, 2G, 6 Bench. How would you rank my players in terms of keepers both for next season and 3-5 years down the line? I'm prepared to be patient.

C – Jack Eichel, Jack Hughes, Marco Kasper, Elias Petttersson, Sam Reinhart, Carter Verhaeghe, Cutter Gauthier, Jiri Kulich

W – Cole Caufield, Zach Hyman, Joakim Kemell, William Nylander, Patrik Laine, Brennan Othmann, Lucas Raymond, Juraj Slafkovsky, Pavel Dorofeyev, Dylan Guenther

D – Adam Fox, Akito Hirose, David Jiricek, Kevin Korchinski, Owen Pickering, Simon Edvinsson

G – Akira Schmid, Igor Shesterkin, Yaroslav Askarov

I tried contacting Jim to have him answer some questions I had, but didn't hear back. As such, I don't know, for example, if "rookies" means those who were rookies in 2022-23 but no longer would be, so I'll assume they do count. I also don't know if offseason trading is realistic, so I'll assume it is. Lastly, I don't know how many other teams there are, so I'll go with a middle ground of 12.

As a reminder, please try to provide me with any and all information that could be relevant. Err on the side of inclusion, as I can always omit it if it's not relevant. And if you send a question via email, please try to make sure to look for possible emails from me asking for clarifications. Onto the question….

Jim says next season and three-to-five years from now, then adds that he's prepared to be patient. As such, I'll lean toward guys with future upside. Must keeps are Eichel, Hughes, Pettersson, Caufield, Nylander, Fox, and Shesterkin, for a total of seven, meaning three more non-rookies can be added. Candidates, to me, are Verhaeghe, Hyman, Laine, Raymond, and Reinhart. We just have to get that list of five and turn it into three. For starters, I'd put Hyman on the trade block. What I keep coming back to is that he did what he did primarily when Evander Kane was out and in his first season with the Oilers he did not better than he'd fared with Toronto. Or to put it another way, is there any way his value is ever higher? It's calling selling high for a reason. I'd try to trade him and a prospect for a prospect upgrade. As for the one player left who wouldn't be protected, I'd say Reinhart. His best ever season coincided with the Panthers' offensive explosion in 2021-22, and despite getting 2:00 more ice time per game, of which 40 seconds was added PP minutes, he fared markedly worse in 2022-23. I think the real Reinhart is closer to what we saw this season, so I'd trade him or make him the tough non-keep, as I like the upside of Raymond and the bounce back potential of Laine more, plus Verhaeghe solidified himself as the real deal this season and in the playoffs.

For "rookies" I've got Schmid, Slafkovsky, Guenther, Jiricek, and Askarov as locks, as on paper they are the best of the bunch in terms of perceived upside and also close enough so as to make it less likely they'd not pan out. The last spot is tricky. With a total of 16 keepers and active line-ups that comprise 20 skaters, of which 30% are defensemen, that means roughly one d-man should be kept for every three forwards. As of now there would be ten forwards kept and just two defensemen, so I'm leaning toward D for the last spot, and it's between Korchinski and Edvinsson from where I sit. I think of the two I'm rolling the dice with Korchinski. He was the earlier pick and is younger, plus I fear that Jake Walman and Mortiz Seider could provide roadblocks for Edvinsson. But if you prefer Edvinsson I could get behind that too. Good luck!

Question #4 (from David)

I've got two "which one to protect" questions: Aleksander Barkov or Roope Hintz, and Ilya Sorokin or Juuse Saros. Skaters are points only, goalies are W(4), L(-2), OTL (0), SO(extra 4).

Let's look at the goalies first. I covered Sorokin in a March mailbag, with the highlights – and they were indeed highlights – being three straight seasons of 68%+ of his starts being quality starts, with no other goalie who's played 20+ games having done so even twice in these past two seasons. He also had two of the top five GSAA seasons over the past three, with no one else occupying two spots in even the top 15. He also is far and away the leader in shutouts over the past three campaigns. In fact, I'd say the only question when it comes to Sorokin is how he'll fare when he's "the guy", as he hasn't been tasked with carrying a huge games-played load. Maybe the Isles keep it that way, re-signing Semyon Varlamov or inking a goalie who can play 20 or so games, leaving Sorokin to shine as he has been.

Saros is no slouch though, as dating back to 2016-17 no goalie who's played 200+ games has a higher QS% or lower Really Bad Start percentage. He racks up wins as well, with 14 more than Sorokin in the past two seasons; however, that gap gets halved when considering Saros only had six shutouts in 123 games played, versus 13 from Sorokin in 17 fewer contests. Saros also loses more games (48 in the past two seasons, versus 40 for Sorokin) due to starting more of them too.

This is closer than I thought, inasmuch as GAA and SV% don't matter. Still, nothing against Saros, but Sorokin looks to be step above, especially since he saw no negative effects from having played 62 games this past season, versus 52 in 2021-22. That was only two fewer than Saros. Since I don't see that gap being wide again, I'm picking Sorokin. In fact, the only netminder in this format who might be keepable over Sorokin is Igor Shesterkin, and even then it'd be close.

As for the forwards, one would think Barkov is much older than Hintz due to how long Barkov has been in the league versus his fellow Finn; however, Hintz entered the league at age 22, so they're only a year apart in age. All things being otherwise equal, this might be a close match; but as often is the case, all things are not in fact equal.

Hintz plays for a Dallas team which has found significant success not playing its forwards into the ground, as for the second season in a row they were one of a handful or fewer teams for which no forward – not Hintz nor phenom in the making Jason Robertson – played even 19:00 per game. In contrast, only once in the past six seasons Barkov taken the ice for less than 20:56 per game on average. Yes, some of that is in the form of more PK time than Hintz; however, Barkov also had a whopping 1:08 more PP Time per game than Hintz for 2022-23, which is huge.

Those things having been said, Barkov has started to show signs of age in the form of injuries over the past two seasons, which is a concern not just because of recurrence but also it taking a toll on his skill. As for Hintz, as great as he has performed in the playoffs, a lot of that was due to an unsustainable PPPt rate; and his ice time was barely higher, even factoring in overtime games. If Barkov hadn't shown signs of Band Aid Boy onset, he'd have a pretty clear edge. But even still, I think he is the "right" pick, as Hintz could indeed get better and/or get more ice time; however, with Dallas doing so well as a team the way things are, that makes it less likely they tinker with what's working, and, in turn, Hintz should be maxed out at 80-85 points, whereas Barkov's downside is 90. In the end Barkov is the keep.

Question #5 (from Mike)

I'm in a 12 team, keep 10, 20 skaters (any position) league where the stats for all 20 players count and there is no provision for replacing or benching any of your line-up. Essentially, you're stuck with your 20 skaters for better or worse. I won the league for 2022-23 by a good margin, so now my attention has turned to landing on my keepers. I see my "sure things" as Leon Draisaitl, David Pastrnak, Mikko Rantanen, Erik Karlsson, Brayden Point, Kirill Kaprizov, Aleksander Barkov, and Alex DeBrincat. My list of presumed non-keeps consists of Tyler Toffoli, Morgan Frost, Oliver Bjorkstrand, Victor Olofsson, Eeli Tolvanen, Anthony Beauvillier, and MacKenzie Weegar. The guys I'm iffy on are Dylan Larkin, Andrei Kuzmenko, Cole Caufield, Marco Rossi, and Filip Chytil. Trading in the offseason is rare; to give you some perspective, I'd probably be able to get, at best, a second round pick for Larkin, which, after all the keepers have been factored in, would be either 2023 draft pick or, presumably, the 140th or so best skater. What would you do in my shoes?

Of all the "sure things" I'm concerned only about Karlsson and Barkov, mostly due to Karlsson having a let-down risk and both being Band-Aid Boys. In Barkov the best case scenario is 60-70 games, albeit at a floor of a 90+ point scoring pace. Someday his injuries will cause his game to slip. Karlsson is just as fragile, and he performed so far above and beyond expectations that the let down factor looms large.

I'm definitely making room for Larkin. He's a 75-point floor player, with 85+ point potential once the Wings take the next step. Chytil is tempting, as I think the new Rangers coach will give him the second line center spot, as Vincent Trocheck didn't produce well and his game can suit itself to being a third line pivot. Caufield I worry is going to be a 40G, 25A type of player, so I'm not banking on him. Kuzmenko, for the reasons I outlined in a Goldipucks column, strikes me a player who overachieved and I fear he comes back to earth in a major way. Rossi has done nothing at the NHL level and maybe never will. The presumed non-keeps all make sense, except perhaps Toffoli in that he managed a decent season even when Calrgary has a poor showing and he figures to be a key piece in them righting their ship.

The question then is who to remove from your sure things to make room for Larkin, and do you also opt to go with Chytil or Toffoli. I know you said trading isn't often done, but I'd put both Barkov and Karlsson's names out there and see what you can get in return either for each or as a package. If you can turn the two of them into a keepable player, then you keep that player and Larkin. If you can only get draft picks, then I'd still trade one of them and swap in Larkin for him. As for Chytil and Toffoli, despite the fact that I think they will do better next season, that might not be enough of a widely held belief as to make them necessary to keep, rather than as early redraft targets.

The big question is, if you can't trade either Barkov or Karlsson, then who do you not keep in favor of Larkin? Probably Karlsson, as the last 100-point defenseman was Brian Leetch, who had a much better injury track record and even he dropped to point per game production in each of his next two seasons, which is what you can expect as a floor from Larkin, who also poses less injury risk. So I'd keep Barkov and Larkin, and let Karlsson go under those circumstances. Good luck!

Question #6 (from Dave)

How do you see 2023-24 unfolding for Evander Kane? At times he's looked outstanding in Edmonton; but after returning from injury last season he was mediocre and I wonder if he's back to not really caring about his performance, which used to be a recurring issue unless playing for a new deal. What do you predict?

I can understand your uncertainty, because over the course of Kane's career he's been superb, terrible, and pretty much everywhere in between. The Kane that you get often has a lot to do with whether he "shows up" – that is, does he put forth the effort to be able to leverage the undeniable talent with which he's been blessed.  What seemingly has motivated Kane to do well in the past? Seemingly money, as sure enough he did superbly in Edmonton in 2021-22, then inked a nice fat contract, and lo and behold his production slipped. Still, he was doing fine before he got hurt last season; so it is possible what we saw after he returned – which was a step down – could've been lingering after effects of his injury. Or it could've been him sulking due to Zach Hyman having essentially taking Kane's "spot."

Will Kane get another chance to be in the top six in 2023-24? Almost assuredly yes; but a spot on PP1 is less certain. Although Zach Hyman wasn't a PPPts magnet, in fact sporting one of the lowest PP IPPs for anyone who received as much PP time as he did, his presence helped the Oilers field the best PP1 in the league. And unless Hyman slips – which could happen given his prior results – Kane will likely have to settle for top six minutes but PP scraps. Will that be enough to motivate Kane? There's been a long line of wingers who were put into similar situations and did not respond with big numbers, so the odds are somewhat stacked against Kane. He's also hurt by the fact that both Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl are also higher volume shooters, making it so Kane is less needed as a sniper.

Long story short, with Kane having three more seasons on his current deal and Zach Hyman likely acting as a barrier to PP1 time for Kane, I fear that Kane will not be motivated to play as well as he could, and, in turn, might put up numbers along the lines of what he did after returning from injury, which was only 15 points in 27 games. If I owned him in a keeper, I'd try to deal him, as people probably haven't soured on him again as yet, and you could play up how well he did in 2021-22 and in 2022-23 before getting hurt. Will your fellow GMs buy it? All it takes is one, and Kane is so tantalizing that I'm guessing you will be able to find a taker, and even get a nice return. In one year leagues, I'd let another GM draft him, as someone will reach such that Kane would have to play his very best for the pick to be validated, when there is a very real possibility he will fall short. Good question!

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For those reading this now, it's never too early to start providing me with mailbag questions, which you can do in one of two ways: (1) by emailing them to [email protected] with the words "Roos Mailbag" as the subject line, or (2) by sending them to me via a private message on the DobberHockey Forums, where my username is "rizzeedizzee".

When sending me your questions, remember to provide as much detail about your league/situation as possible. Examples of things I need to know include what type of league you're in (i.e., limited keeper, dynasty, or one-year; roto vs. H2H; auction – if so, what the budget is – or non-auction), how many teams are in the league, does the salary cap matter, how many players are rostered (and of those, how many start at each position as well as how many bench and/or IR spots there are), what categories are scored and how are they weighted, plus other details if pertinent. If your question involves whether to pick up or drop a player, give me a list of top free agents available and let me know if the number of pick-ups is limited or if there is a priority system for pick-ups. If you're thinking of making a trade, it would be good to know not only the roster of the other team you might trade with but also where you stand in your categories. If your question involves keepers, in addition to giving me the options for who to keep, let me know if offseason trading is allowed and to what extent it is a viable option given your league. In sum, the key is to tell me enough for me to give you a truly proper answer, and for readers of this column to benefit from the answer/advice I provide. When in doubt, it's best to err on the side of inclusion since I can always omit or disregard things that don't matter.