Ramblings: Calgary’s Offseason Plans; Wolf; Coaching Changes; Partial-Keeper Offseason Planning & More (May 30th)

Alexander MacLean

2023-05-31

It seems as though the Flames will be adding more youth to the lineup and are looking for some better asset management. That begins with the GM, and in fantasy terms it means the top producers at the AHL level are more likely to get an NHL shot, and not losing players like Juuso Valimaki on waivers. That bodes well for Matthew Coronato, Jakob Pelletier, and Walker Duehr, who would be the odds-on favourites for the 10-12 spots on forward this coming year. It sounds as though Calgary won't be filling those holes via the FA market just for the sake of it. If anything, there could be a few "core" pieces moving out, providing even more room for the saplings to grow.

And next is GM Craig Conroy talking about the options for Dustin Wolf. It sounds like the top priority is getting him starts, with the hope being that they can find a trade and make the majority of them games at the NHL level. All three of Jakob Markstrom, Dan Vladar, and Wolf may have single-season value this year, though for the former two it may depend on what team one of them gets traded to. The landing in Pittsburgh for example would not be soft.

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If you want a little more insight on Wolf, other goalies nearing the NHL, or really any prospects at all, your one stop shop is right here:

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Spencer Carbury inked a contract yesterday to become the new coach of the Washington Capitals. He coached the Hersey Bears (the Washington AHL affiliate) from 2018 to 2021, so he already has some familiarity with the players and the system.

Carbury spent the last two years as the assistant coach for the Toronto Maple Leafs, with a focus on the power play. Toronto's power play clicked at 26.0% last year, the second-best rate in the league (and the best power play on the teams that didn't have Connor McDavid).

If I am an owner of a Washington Capitals player in any pools, especially those that are seeing solid power play time, then I am happy about this signing. The Capitals scored on 21.2% of their power plays last year (16th in the league), so there isn't a huge gap to be made up. Every little bit helps though, and with the core of the Capitals aging, they should be able to at least maintain last year's scoring numbers with Carbury's help. A healthy year from John Carlson on the back end will also make a big difference.

As the team tries to re-tool and aims for the playoffs again this year, players that played under Carbury in Hershey like Connor McMichael, Aliaksei Protas, Joe Snively, Martin Fehervary, and others, may see a longer leash.

Cliffy had his take on the hire here.

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On the topic of coaching changes, if you own any Predators players then you have to be pretty happy with the coaching developments that came out yesterday. Incumbent John Hynes has been moved out in favour of Andrew Brunette who spent the last two seasons on the coaching staff for the Panthers (2021-22) and the Devils (2022-23). Those two teams finished those respective seasons as two of the most improved offensive teams.

Over the last number of years, the Predators have had success based on their systems, defence, and their special-teams. This coming year, they may be primed for an offensive surge under Brunette, which may fit in very well with their youth movement and the skill coming up through their system.

The offseason still looks to be busy for the Predators who may be open to moving out a few more contracts such as Tyson Barrie, Ryan Johansen, Juuse Saros, or Dante Fabbro. There is a lot of talent coming up the pipeline, and many of the new young players made positive impacts this past year. Nashville and Buffalo look to me like the two teams most primed for a few big moves to clear space for the next waves.

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The latest cap league rankings are out for skaters and goalies, as well as the projections for the top-100 free agents. They're all linked there, and let me know what comments you have, because I know there will be some.

I wanted to run through a few recent signings that wouldn't have shown up on the top free-agents list though.

Kyle Okposo is one that I know Cliffy has mentioned a couple of times in his coverage of how filled the Buffalo forward core is. It's not surprising though that Buffalo is overpaying him a little to keep him onboard as the team grows into the playoffs, and still has another year or two until they become really cap-strapped. Having that kind of veteran leadership and defensive responsibility around is worth a lot more to the Sabres than some cap space this year. If we could start placing bets now, Buffalo would be one of my eight teams that I would pencil into the playoffs for next year (the incumbents Boston, Florida, Toronto, Carolina, Tampa Bay, New Jersey and the New York Rangers being the others).

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Arvid Soderblom may be your best sell-high on potential option of the summer in deeper leagues. It's likely going to be another season of foregoing wins, and seeing a lot of defensive issues in a slow march towards the bottom of the standings. Goalie value can be found with volume in lots of leagues, but despite Soderblom's extension, I'm very skeptical of most goalies, especially when one performs eerily similar to Petr Mrazek, and can only come out with two wins in 14 games.

Mrazek's calmness, contract, and generally his play are going to get him a lot more games (when healthy) than Soderblom this year. I have seen some GMs thinking he may be the up-and-coming goalie on Connor Bedard's team, which makes him worth owning. Instead of telling you outright not to go after him, I'll ask whether you have owned many Edmonton goalies over the last eight years, and how productive and reliable they have been?

Kiefer Sherwood for the league-minimum on a one-way deal is going to be someone that I will target in deeper cap leagues (those 24+ team ones where you roster 25 NHL players). He paced for over 30 points last year, and scored the first goal of the NHL season. After the trade of Tanner Jeannot, and with a few other young and skilled players coming up, he's someone that has already shown he can fit in well on the third line as a complimentary piece.

Over the past two years in the AHL, he has 113 points in 99 games, so there isn't much left to prove there. Now, as an undrafted 28-year-old he's not a top prospect or anything, but he could very realistically bring 35-40 points and nearly 300 hits next year, even without an increase in ice time.

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Trading has opened back up in one of my partial keeper leagues, and so we're all looking to see where we can fill holes or consolidate talent. Since we're all trying to fit into the same small number of keeper slots, there aren't too many trades – maybe single-digits every year for an average of one per team.

Last year was a narrow miss of the playoffs for my team, though I did win the second overall pick, which will likely be Adam Fantilli unless someone great is strangely not kept. I'm aiming to be back in the top-six this year and contend in the playoffs.

At the moment, my keepers are penciled in as

F: Jack Eichel, Braden Point, Filip Forsberg, Alex Tuch, Josh Norris, Travis Konecny

D: Darnell Nurse, Seth Jones, K’Andre Miller, Jeff Petry

G: Dustin Wolf

Prospect: Yaroslav Askarov.

Ideally, I would condense two of those last four forwards into a better one, and then trade a later pick for a filler as my sixth forward keeper, or hold on to someone like Brayden Schenn (as it is a peripherals-heavy league) or Owen Tippett

On defence, I like the cross-category coverage of my four guys, but 36-year-old Petry is someone that I’m looking into options to upgrade on. Jones is a bit of a sunk cost at the moment, and I have to hope him and the Blackhawks rebound a bit this year.

In net, I am searching to acquiring a goalie, and then I could move Wolf to be kept in my prospect spot. I like Askarov, but I liked his outlook more before Kevin Lankinen re-signed for another year at $2 million. There is always the chance that Saros is traded, and then Askarov gets a number of starts this year, but making keeper decisions based on hypotheticals, especially with prospects, is a fools errand. Askarov is also two years younger than Wolf, and probably also two years behind him on the development runway. I have some time to re-acquire Askarov if I really want to, but letting go of Wolf now would likely mean I would lose him.

Generally, I find that patience is your friend with trade talks in partial keeper leagues like this, as those that are selling realize that no one really wants to buy. For a trade to happen there has to be someone willing to make a move, with a keeper they feel they need to upgrade on, and they need to be willing to pay a price (usually draft picks) to do it. It makes trades difficult, and gives a lot of power to the buyers rather than the sellers.

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See you next Wednesday. In the meantime, you can find me on Twitter @alexdmaclean if you have any fantasy hockey questions or comments.

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Starting Goalies

Top Skater Views

  Players Team
JACKSON LACOMBE ANA
LANE HUTSON MTL
PATRIK LAINE MTL
SHANE PINTO OTT
JONATHAN HUBERDEAU CGY

Top Goalie Profile Views

  Players Team
MACKENZIE BLACKWOOD COL
SPENCER KNIGHT FLA
DAVID RITTICH L.A
LUKAS DOSTAL ANA
JACOB MARKSTROM N.J

LINE COMBOS

  Frequency DET Players
12.7 JOE VELENO MARCO KASPER JONATAN BERGGREN
9.9 PATRICK KANE ALEX DEBRINCAT ANDREW COPP
8.8 VLADIMIR TARASENKO TYLER MOTTE J.T. COMPHER

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