Today we tackle the second of our Most Valuable series. We started last week with centers and today we move to right wings. As a reminder, here is a brief description from that article on the process:

'Most Valuable' is a tricky term that is going to be completely dependent on the league specific context. For the purposes of this article, we are going to use standard Yahoo point scoring to calculate the total fantasy points for each player. This year the stats include goals, assists, power-play points, shots, blocks and (unfortunately) plus/minus. Obviously this means there might be some general deviations to your league, based on your settings, but it is at least a good starting point. In order to grab all of this data I am exporting the Multicat and Big Board Reports for the full season, and doing a bit of rearranging so I can have only the pertinent fields.

In addition to total fantasy points, I have also pulled Yahoo average draft position data (ADP). These ADPs are based on preseason drafts so don't take into account leagues and drafts that started part way through the season. The idea here is that if we compare the draft position to the end of year fantasy points for all players, we can get an equation that lets us say, 'on average a player with X draft position would be expected to get Y fantasy points'. Once we have that we can compare that expected number to the player's actual number and see who performed the best based on their draft position. 

First up, who were the top five right wingers this year?

No real surprises here. This is mostly what we would have guessed, and generally speaking these players were drafted highly. David Pastrnak was the latest drafted of the elite right wingers going into the season, which mostly makes sense after a couple of "down years" of 82- and 88-point paces. This year's 113-point pace was a little bit of a surprise (as was Boston's whole season) but it looks really good. Yes, there are a few points where numbers are a little bit inflated, and yes there are some question marks of the team's makeup next year, but Pastrnak saw career high time on ice numbers, shot rates, and expected goal numbers. As long as the deployment and shot rates keep up a similar pace seems very doable going forward.

Which wingers provided the most value if we take into account their draft position?

We should note here that Tage Thompson is also center eligible on some platforms, but since he is also wing eligible in most places, that added flexibility allows him to be listed here. Thompson was featured in this column under possible breakout candidates and while I admit to being a little skeptical that was going to eclipse his 70-point season pace from 2021-22 he clearly did so. I also clearly wasn’t the only one with his ADP down at 144. Anyone who drafted him at that point was laughing. Up until the fourth quarter he was on a 113-point pace.

An injury took away some time and potentially some effectiveness, so over his final quarter he paced below a point per game and ended up with the 94 points in 78 games He was able to continue much of his performance from the second half of 2021-22 while getting career high time on ice, shot rates, and expected goal numbers. The fourth quarter drop off is a little concerning, but hopefully we can chalk it up to injury and he will return in full form by next season.

And because we can't look at most valuable without thinking about the flip side – now on to the disappointments.

Mark Stone makes this list because he only played 43 games (and because he played some of those games injured). Tanner Jeannot was clearly over drafted after his flashy goal performances in 2021-22 that he was unable to maintain, but the significant drop offs for Vladimir Tarasenko and Patrick Kane are probably the most noteworthy here.

Tarasenko was coming off a resurgent 90-point pace season, but there had been a few warning signs that he wasn't a new player at 30. Add to that time lost to injury and having to adjust to life on the Rangers it is pretty clear that 70 was a more realistic ceiling than 21-22's 90 points. He still failed to live up to that, but the real reason he is on this list is that inflated ADP.

Kane, on the other hand, had generally been living up to his ADP. Kane's 96-point pace in 2021-22 was his lowest since 2017-18. His 2022-23 season though, was an enigmatic one. One the on hand he is 34, no wonder he saw a decline. Digging in and finding a rationale for a 30-point drop is a challenge though. Overall, he lost about a minute and a half of ice time, about 30 seconds of that on the power-play. That contributed to dropping 0.6 shots per game (and fewer opportunities for points overall). At a per 60 rate, though, his expected goal rates were actually up compared to his prior to 97+ point seasons, plus he wasn't actually that far off his recent years in his own goal scoring.

As far as teammates go, Kane was skating with the worst linemates he had seen in a long while, but his team five-on-five shooting percentage was good (meaning that although the quality of the team around him wasn't up to the usual standard, they ended up scoring goals just fine). The only numbers that are really off for Kane are his point participation numbers. They were essentially the lowest of his career. Both at even strength and on the power-play he was down around 63 percent when he is usually around 80. If we assume some level of luck involved there (and not say he is getting old/is injured so can't keep up with the play anymore), a return to average would have meant an 80-point pace season, or 14 additional points last season.

My best guess is that we have been seeing a decline for at least two seasons, but some exceptional power-play numbers in 2021-22 boosted what would have otherwise been a season of decline (maybe down to an 85-point pace level). 2022-23 saw another decline (both in the team around him and his own numbers – particularly time on ice and shot rates) that likely would have seen a ceiling of 80 points in a perfect world, but that was also hampered by terrible (for Kane) participation numbers. The big question for Kane is if these participation numbers were a fluke, or an indication that time and injuries are catching up with him. Oh, and also his landing place after the off season will certainly impact his projection as well.

I love this list. These were some incredibly valuable season holds that most managers found out of free agency. In particular I am thinking about deployment opportunities that Alex Tuch, Tyler Toffoli, and Martin Necas ran with.

Tuch fit well on a dynamic top line with Thompson and Jeff Skinner and really took advantage of not being buried on Vegas' depth chart. His shooting percentage is still a bit high so that is something to watch out for, but top line, top power-play Tuch is very much a thing to be excited about.

Tyler Toffoli was a question mark going into the season. He was fine, though not amazing in his third line role for the 2021-22 Flames. With the off-season roster shakeups, he was able to get back into the top six, on the top power-play, and put up career high shot rates and goal totals. Like with Tuch his personal shooting percentage is a touch high, but his role on the team looks pretty secure.

We have been waiting on Necas for a while and he finally delivered. While the lines seemed to blend relatively frequently, Necas saw career high ice time numbers, including over three minutes of average power-play time for the first time in his career. The 26 power-play points he put up was a huge difference maker for Necas and his fantasy relevance. Some roster shakeup is likely with a lot of contracts up for the Hurricanes, but hopefully after this season he can hold on to that power-play time and therefore production.

That is all for this week. Do your part to support organizations working to make hockey for everyone.

Black Girl Hockey Club

Hockey is For Everyone

Athletes for Hope

Premier Hockey Federation