Ramblings: Fantasy Hockey Prospect Report Ready! Also Dubas, Kane, Goal Scorers (Jun 2)
Ian Gooding
2023-06-02
The Fantasy Hockey Prospects Report was released on Thursday. Make sure you have your copy so that you can answer your own burning questions, such as what is Connor Bedard's upside or where Luke Hughes is ranked among prospect defensemen. Both are actual questions that I had, since I'm thrilled to say that I will have both players on one of my keeper teams next season! As you'll see, though, you'll be able to dive much deeper into the prospect pool beyond Bedard and Hughes.
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From the core four to the big three, Kyle Dubas has found work rather quickly as the new president of hockey operations for the Pittsburgh Penguins.
Even though they missed the playoffs, the Penguins will be locked in to compete next season. In other words, a rebuild is off the table while Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, and Kris Letang are all under contract. It will be up to the new Penguins management team to surround these three veterans with the right mix of support players to return to the playoffs… and hope for a run similar to this season's Florida Panthers once there.
One key decision that Dubas will have that will affect fantasy leagues centers around the goaltending, as Tristan Jarry is set to become a UFA. The Pens have just over $20 million in cap space, so it will be interesting to see what kind of offer will the Penguins make to Jarry, if they decide to make one at all. Jarry projects at just over $5 million according to our Salary Projections, so it seems as though the Penguins can fit him in. They also need upgrades on both their defense and their depth forwards, so it may not be as simple as re-signing the starting goalie.
Dubas's announcement couldn't have been timelier, as the Penguins tweeted it half an hour before the Leafs' press conference to announce Brad Treliving as their new general manager.
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Patrick Kane has undergone a hip resurfacing operation where he is expected to need 4-6 months of recovery time. The best-case scenario is that he is ready for the season, but the worst-case scenario means he will be sidelined until December.
Kane struggled for most of the 2022-23 season by his standards, although part of that might be attributed to the fact that he was surrounded by little to no top-level scoring talent on the rebuilding Blackhawks. Yet even after being acquired by the Rangers, Kane was well below a point per game with 12 points in 19 regular-season games. His production improved somewhat during the playoffs (6 points in 7 games), but he was held without a point in his final three games. Kane has stated that he was affected by the injury during the playoffs, so it's possible that the hip also bothered him during the regular season.
Kane is also a UFA, so teams will also have to factor in that he may have little to no training camp to get up to speed, even if he doesn't miss any regular-season games. He has significant risk from a fantasy perspective entering next season, although he could easily return to the point-per-game club once he returns with his newly repaired hip. Don’t forget to move him down your pre-draft rankings in single-season leagues. I moved him out of the Top 100 Roto Rankings in April, and with this latest news it seems unlikely he’ll be back there before the season starts.
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Our writers have made their picks for the Stanley Cup and Conn Smythe winners! You can find them here.
After careful deliberation (okay, a wild guess), I took the Golden Knights in 7 along with Sergei Bobrovsky for the Conn Smythe. But I could very well see the Panthers winning it in 4 or something like that. Who knows. I'm not sure the Panthers' run is sustainable to the point where it could land them a cup, but over a short series anything can happen. Vegas has been underestimated a bit during these playoffs as well.
Yes, I realize that Bobrovsky plays for the Panthers but I picked the Golden Knights. It's possible that the Conn Smythe can be won by a member of the losing team, and if so, it's usually the goalie. J-S Giguere in 2003 is one example when the Ducks lost to the Devils. Ron Hextall in 1987 is another example when the Flyers lost to the Oilers. It's unlikely I get both right, but I'm probably hedging, unless Matthew Tkachuk wins it.
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Throughout the summer, I'll be touring through the various Frozen Tools stat categories, looking for players that stood out in some unusual way in the hopes of finding some hidden fantasy value. The next stat on the list for me is goals, which I'll be breaking down from several different angles this weekend. Today I'll look for players with unusually high or low power-play goal totals relative to their overall goal total.
Draisaitl led all players with 32 power-play goals, which is noteworthy because no one else had more than 21 power-play goals. On the flipside, Draisaitl had only 19 even-strength goals, a number that was surpassed by 75 other players, such as Frederick Gaudreau and Tomas Tatar. This is significant because Draisaitl was the fourth-leading goal scorer with 52 goals overall. At the end of the day, it doesn't matter how they were scored, just that they were scored. If your league has a separate power-play category, then you're filling multiple boxes.
In case you're wondering, several other players had more power-play goals than even-strength goals, but the next-highest difference after Draisaitl (13) was 4 (shared by Nicklas Backstrom, Drake Batherson, and power-play specialist Alex Chiasson). If the Oilers' power-play conversion rate sharply declines next season (which I'm not betting on happening), Draisaitl's goal total would take a major hit.
Overall, there shouldn't be much worry about Draisaitl maintaining his elite status. He's now posted three 50-goal seasons in his career, and no player has scored as many goals as he has over the last five seasons (231). During that time, he's managed to maintain a shooting percentage between 18-22% in a season, which is incredibly high.
In a way, Verhaeghe was the anti-Draisaitl. He led the Panthers with 42 goals this season, but just seven were on the power play. He was able to reach that goal total despite playing just 38.2% of Florida's available power-play minutes. During the playoffs, it's been mainly the same with second-unit deployment as the Panthers ride a power play with Matthew Tkachuk, Aleksander Barkov, and the two Sams (Sam Reinhart and Sam Bennett).
He didn't ride a higher-than normal shooting percentage for him this season (15.1 SH%), and his advanced stats are normal and don't show any unusually good luck. However, he's averaged over a shot more per game (3.4 SOG/GP) over last season (2.1 SOG/GP), which is rather significant. Verhaeghe finished in the top 20 with 278 shots on goal, while his career average of 15.3 SH% shows that he has the ability to put the puck into the net. As well, Verhaeghe had a 75.9 EVIPP (even-strength individual point percentage), which was second on the Panthers (only to Eric Staal!)
Tying this back to a lack of power-play goals, this is a potential Nikolaj Ehlers situation, where those rostering him could be left wanting more. His 61.9 PPIPP (power-play individual point percentage) also shows he might be due for a promotion. But if it ain't broke for the Panthers when it comes to their playoff run, why fix it?
He just needed a team to give him regular top-6 minutes. In his two seasons in Seattle, McCann has set career highs with 27 goals in 2021-22, then 40 goals in 2022-23. Prior to that, McCann had never reached 20 goals playing for three other NHL teams.
McCann was like Verhaeghe in that most of his goals were at even-strength, as he scored just seven power-play goals. Although he received over half of Seattle's power-play minutes, the number was just barely over half (52.8 %PP). The Kraken power play is not exactly loaded and is spread out among two units. In other words, don't expect him to turn into Draisaitl.
Even if McCann's power-play minutes increase, don't expect a major improvement in his goal total. A 19.0 SH% seems likely to decrease considering that his career average is about 12%. Although McCann has found a great situation for himself in Seattle, bet the under on him reaching 40 goals again.
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An overtime winner at the Memorial Cup in my old stomping grounds of Kamloops. Unfortunately, the hometown Blazers are out, with the pesky Peterborough Petes to face the Seattle Thunderbirds in the semifinal, with the winner to face the Quebec Remparts in the final.
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Follow me on Twitter @Ian_Gooding for more fantasy hockey.