Welcome back to The Journey, where we track the development of prospects as they excel in junior, make the NHL, and push towards stardom.

Those of you heading into keeper and dynasty drafts in the fall are probably planning to use the increasingly popular goalie-avoidance strategy, dubbed Zero G. The thought there is to punt goalies until basically the bitter end of drafts because 1) Goalies are voodoo in the sense that even strong tenders falter relatively often, and 2) Every year, a handful of goalies come out of literally nowhere to generate solid fantasy value. If you spend your higher, valuable picks on more reliable forwards and defenseman, then get lucky with a couple goalies late, you will be further ahead than otherwise.

I absolutely subscribe to this approach, but as more and more poolies hop on the bandwagon, I have noticed something interesting: I think there is a disconnect between our heads and our hearts when it comes to goalies. The Zero G hype train helps our heads win out at the draft. Don't take a goalie early, don't take a goalie early, etc. We follow the strategy, draft a roster we're pleased with, and then sit down to tinker with it in the weeks and months following the draft.

That is when our hearts start to speak up. These forwards are great, the blue line is solid. But hmmmm….that is who I ended up with in net? Goaltending is definitely the biggest area of weakness on this team. How can I address that?

Unless you have a shallow league with a loaded waiver wire, the answer to that question is trading. What kind of goalies will your competitors be looking to acquire? Young, high upside tenders with pedigree and a friendly team situation.

If you find yourself in a keeper/dynasty draft where most of the other managers are punting goalies because of Zero G, there can be value in going against the grain, pouncing on goalies who fall further that they "should" have, and then flipping them later for high-upside skaters who were not available at the time in the draft when you selected your goalie. Again, this only works in a context where most other teams are avoiding goalies until later on.

To illustrate what I mean, I'll share some recent examples of my drafting and trading outcomes in a deep, 12-team keeper (keep 30 pro, 32 farm, G, A, Pts, PIM, SOG, STP, Hit, Blk, W, GAA, SV%ES) that was created near the tail end of 2021-22. I went into the initial farm and pro drafts with Zero G at the forefront of my mind but exclaimed to my wife partway through, "I keep drafting goalies! I don't know what's happening!!!"

Trade #1

Drafted: Jake Oettinger (6th round, pro draft)

Taken that round: Josh Norris, Drake Batherson, Ilya Samsonov, Frederik Andersen, Tristan Jarry, Elias Lindholm, Morgan Rielly, Sergei Bobrovsky, Jake Guentzel, Robin Lehner, Steven Stamkos

Traded For: Oettinger's stocks had increased considerably only a year after the initial draft, and I was able to flip him, along with a 2023 first rounder and Brandon Tanev (22nd round, pro), for David Pastrnak (1st round, pro) and Barrett Hayton (4th round, farm).

Playing for the declining Bruins, Pastrnak may not be quite as shiny moving forward as he looked in 2022-23, but I couldn't pass up the 26-year-old's almost 1.5 points, a hit, and five shots per game. Hayton's role and upside are also open questions, but he's only 22 and went almost a point per game over the final 20 games of the campaign. He provides hits and is strong at the faceoff dot for the center-starved Coyotes.

For reference on the Hayton aspect of the deal, the other players taken in the fourth round of the farm draft were Arthur Kaliyev, Connor McMichael, Philip Tomasino, Peyton Krebs, Nicholas Robertson, Jake Sanderson, Martin Fehervary, Logan Thompson, Olen Zellweger, Lukas Dostal, and Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen. If Hayton hits his upside, I won't miss that first-round pick too much, and his timeline is now versus the 3-5 year wait for a 2024 prospect.

With this deal, I was able to snag first-round and fourth-round talents with my sixth-round goaltender, 22nd round forward, and a future pick. Although the other owner faded goalies at the draft, perhaps because he ascribed to Zero G, he essentially ended up drafting one anyway in the first round—just a year later.

Trade #2

Drafted: Filip Gustavsson (10th round, farm draft)

Taken that round: Scott Morrow, Kaiden Guhle, Jordan Spence, Drew Commesso, Juuso Valimaki, Brendan Brisson, Jack Studnicka, Tyler Boucher, Oskar Olausson, Justin Barron, Fyodor Svechkov

Traded for: Like Oettinger, Gustavsson had himself a hell of a campaign in 2022-23. At the time of this league's initial draft, he was struggling as the backup in Ottawa. Then came the trade to Minnesota for Cam Talbot and exploded shortly thereafter. I was able to package Gustavsson with 2023 first- and second-round picks plus Tyson Foerster (9th round, farm) for Linus Ullmark (7th round, pro), Seth Jarvis (2nd round, farm), and Pavel Mintyukov (1st round, 2022 prospect draft), plus a third rounder.

As with Pastrnak, Ullmark is likely at peak value right now after his Vezina-caliber 2022-23, and he is also five years older than Gustavsson. So I was aware that I was selling and buying high on the goalies in this deal. But I believe in the Bruins' goalie-friendly system and feel that reports of their imminent age-related decline have become exaggerated in the hockey universe. I was essentially able to snag a Vezina-level goalie with my tenth-round farm pick here—-incredible value.

If we consider the goalie swap a bit of a wash, I also capitalized on the other owner's need to acquire Gustavsson by upgrading my ninth-round farm pick (Foerster) for a second rounder (Jarvis) who looks to be on the verge of becoming a top-line perennial 70-point scorer and flipping first and second round picks for a third plus Mintyukov, who led the OHL in scoring last year and is one of the hottest prospects defensemen on the market. Again, I appreciate the increased certainty and reduced timeline of Mintyukov versus the sexy question marks and long wait time of the draft picks—but that is an article for another day.

As with the first trade, the point here is that I doubt any of those other players taken in the tenth round of the farm draft could have netted a return that significant. Taking a goalie fairly early—in opposition to Zero G—generated excellent value for my team in this case because of how wildly goalie values (in this case, Gustavsson's) fluctuate.

Trade #3

Drafted: Pyotr Kochetkov (7th round, farm draft)

Taken that round: Mads Sogaard, Matias Maccelli, Sasha Pastujov, Matthew Knies, Ville Heinola, Yannick Turcotte, Sean Durzi, Stuart Skinner, Ryan Merkley, Vitali Kravtsov, Chaz Lucius

Traded for: I traded Kochetkov plus Juuso Parssinen (waiver add) and a third-round pick for Owen Tippett (23rd round, pro) and Alexander Holtz (2nd round, farm).

I definitely paid a premium to acquire Tippett in this one, who was a savvy pick by the other owner, but that speaks to my confidence in his 2022-23 being a sign of things to come. After disappointing for years, the 24-year-old sniper now looks like a serious asset in multi category leagues. Holtz has disappointed lately with inconsistent usage and plenty of healthy scratches in New Jersey, but he is still young, has excellent pedigree, and already has a point-per-game AHL season under his belt.

Although I considered Tippett the centerpiece of my return, acquiring Holtz for Kochetkov retroactively upgraded my farm pick from a 7th to a 2nd—again, incredible value through drafting a goalie early.

Conclusion

Although I shipped out Gustavsson, Oettinger, and Kochetkov, I still have Ullmark (trade), Carter Hart (7th round, pro) and Elvis Merzlikins (12th round, pro) in net heading into 2023-24. While my team is definitely not as strong at the position as it once was, I have managed to turn those three (plus several other picks and players) into Ullmark, Pastrnak, Hayton, Jarvis, Mintyukov, Tippett, and Holtz.

Even though I did not necessarily stick to the Zero G strategy during the initial drafts, my willingness to trade high-value goalies for high-value forwards and defenseman after the draft still aligns with the Zero G philosophy in principle because I sold high on those three goalies for a collection of skaters whose value in theory will be more stable moving forward.

I also recognize that there was definitely a good deal of luck involved here. The three goalies I traded away all had fantastic campaigns in 2022-23 that raised their value significantly and made the other owners in my league desperate to acquire them. This strategy wouldn't work with most goalies. That is the thing about goalies being voodoo: Their value can both increase and decrease massively without warning.

But with some anticipation and luck, this case study suggests that as Zero G becomes increasingly popular as a draft strategy, it is possible to generate substantial value for your team by going against the grain and drafting select goalies early. The key, I think, is to select young, high-upside goalies who are close to seeing NHL action, have good pedigree, and find themselves in a friendly team situation.

Oettinger is the unchallenged starter in Dallas, Gustavsson is breaking out just as his young, talented Minnesota team starts to hit their stride, and Kochetkov is emerging for a top team just as their current starter's contract (Andersen) comes to an end. Those factors generate a significant amount of buzz that makes it hard for other managers to continue suppressing their hearts (I want good goalies) with their minds (don't spend premium picks/assets on goalies).

Let me know on Twitter if you have had success making similar swaps in your leagues! I'd love to hear what you think. Thanks for reading! Follow me on Twitter @beegare for more prospect content and fantasy hockey analysis.