The Prospects Report was released June 1. Updated Sunday with a new profile (more to come). You can order all of the 2023-24 fantasy products in the shop here (or subscribe!).

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ANNOUNCEMENT

NEW TOOL – AHL Line Combinations!

Yes, you read that right. AHL game logs and stats that include IPP! We can't get 100% accurate line combos, but we can get the line that was out there for every goal that is scored, which over time becomes close enough. You can now do your research even more thoroughly!

Check out our 'AHL Central' hub here.

AHL Line Combinations? AHL Line Combinations!

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Every year for 17 editions now, the Fantasy Prospects Report opens with a Top 50 ranking of all the prospects – including the ones who haven't been drafted yet – and they cannot have played a single NHL regular season game. We weight defensemen such that goals are valued at 1.5 for them, giving more value to the position so that they get represented in this points-only keeper ranking. Since we're in a bit of a dead zone for hockey news, I thought I would go through my personal list, and where it deviated a lot from the consensus panel of our 10 other experts.

Not on my Top 50 at all

Jayden Perron – By the time I finished my list, Perron was at 51, Firkus was at 52 and Dvorsky was at 53. Tremendous upside and the wait time shouldn't be too bad. It was difficult to leave any of these three off the list.

Danila Yurov – I only considered him briefly. He's signed for another year in the KHL, and he hasn't figured out that league yet. The wait time here is too long. He would make my Top 70, but not my Top 50.

Laim Ohgren – Oof. Even longer of a wait time than Yurov. Tremendous hockey sense, which raises his upside, but waiting three or four years just for him to arrive?

Jagger Firkus – I've always been a big fan of Firkus and he even made my list last year. Why did he fall? He is still in desperate need of bulking up, and Seattle will be a tough team to crack this year and next.

Dalibor Dvorsky – A surefire NHLer, but it's his strong two-way play that pushes him down my list. Early on, he may be a checking-line player, and that would make us wait for the production. Sean Couturier, Boone Jenner, Joel Eriksson Ek and Mikael Backlund did this. I don't want to wait five or six years for those numbers.

Brad Lambert – Dominated in the WHL and I'm glad he was sent down to play against teenagers. His stock has been in a freefall for over a year now, and it was best that the Jets hit the reset button on him before it's too late. But 'reset' also means 'wait a long time' – and those are words that I avoid in dynasty leagues.

In last year's list I blew it by excluding Luke Evangelista, but I feel I was correct in excluding Aatu Raty, Yurov, Connor Geekie and Lambert.

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Where I went lower

Simon Nemec – Nemec was a slam-dunk Top 10 pick on this list for me. And then Luke Hughes happened. Nemec is too good to remain buried in any future NHL lineup, but if Dougie Hamilton and Hughes are putting up ridiculous point totals, it still means Nemec only gets the scraps. I'm afraid of Damon Severson-like numbers for the first few years. That's not terrible, but it's not Nemec's full potential – it would be holding him back.

Olen Zellweger, ANA – I basically decided that Pavel Mintyukov has higher upside and will be the top guy for points, push comes to shove. I had Mintyukov 10^th, consensus had him 15^th. I had Zellweger 30^th and consensus had him 10^th. So it's really just a matter of opinion, and it will be interesting to see how it pans out. Other members of the panel to have Mintyukov higher: Keith Duggan (who covers Arizona), Sebastian High (who is our Head Scout and spearheaded the Draft section), Hadi Kalakeche (Head of North American Scouting and co-spearheaded the Draft section), and Hayden Soboleski (who covers Colorado).

Cutter Gauthier, PHI – To me, Gauthier is one of three or four prospects who improved the most over the past year. I'm a big fan. I thought that having him at 31 was a solid reflection of this. But apparently not. He was as high as seventh on one list, and overall he was 16^th. I don't think either number is wrong, he's going to be a good one. Still at least a year away.

Denton Mateychuk, CBJ – Columbus is becoming sneaky-good. They're about to add immediate star help at the draft. They already have Johnny Gaudreau. Patrik Laine and Zach Werenski are going to return from injury. Kirill Marchenko has emerged. Kent Johnson will take the next step. Cole Sillinger should be ready. But it's on D where they will sneak up on you. Besides Werenski, they are about to welcome David Jiricek, Corson Ceulemans, and Mateychuk. And Jake Bean will be back healthy. And Adam Boqvist! How do you set these pairings when all are potential top four or top-pairing guys? Werenski, Boqvist, Bean, Jiricek, Ceulemans, Mateychuk. That’s a full three pairings! If you believe in building from the backend outward – watch out for this team. But that's the reason I pushed Mateychuk down my list a bit. PP time will be tough to come by.

Joakim Kemell, NSH – I can't explain this one. I wasn't too far off consensus as I had him 35 and consensus was 24.

Jordan Dumais, CBJ – As a 5-9 player with little physicality and defense to his game, I'm not as sure about him making the Columbus roster in any of the next three years.

Last year I also went lower than consensus on Kemell, Jonathan Lekkerimaki, and Fyodor Svechkov.

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Where I went higher

Defensemen who are older than 18 – I went higher than most on Kevin Korchinski, Pavel Mintyukov and Alexander Nikishin. There is less risk with older defensemen.

Chaz Lucius, WPG – Injuries may have hurt his stock with the other members of the panel, but I love his upside and he wasn't going to make the Jets next season anyway.

Joshua Roy, MTL – Five other panel members didn't have him on the list at all. I had him the highest at 15. His production and performance at the WJC proved that his QMJHL numbers were no fluke. Plus, the Habs are in a rebuild, and rebuilds always mean that prospects make the jump a year or two faster.

Connor Zary, CGY – Zary figured out the AHL and is probably NHL-ready in another half-season. As a former first rounder specifically for his offense, he is going to in Calgary's top six at some point. By the way, here is his AHL Profile, including a monthly breakdown.

Xavier Bourgault, EDM – I feel like he is underrated by my peers because of his lowish AHL production (34 points in 62 games). But as you can see on his AHL profile page, his main linemates were Brad Malone and Carter Savoie. Bakersfield was a very low-scoring team in general.

Last year I went higher on Brendan Brisson, Zachary Bolduc, Tyson Foerster, Joshua Roy – and I went way, way higher than consensus on Kaiden Guhle (I had him 11^th and consensus was 43).

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Who I had that didn't crack the Top 50

Sasha Pastujov, ANA – Absolutely tearing it up in junior, and I upgrade wingers in Anaheim's system because the team needs scoring from those positions. Have I mentioned that I hate wait time?

Lukas Cormier, VGK – Still two years away, and definitely a risk, but tremendous upside and there's always room for a Tyson Barrie-type.

Brennan Othmann, NYR – This seemed to be an oversight across the board, as I had Othmann at 24 and thought he was an obvious pick. The only other person to have him in their Top 50 was DP Editor Peter Harling.

Filip Bystedt, SJS – I had him 50^th. Harling had him 33^rd. Only two others had him ranked. He's two to three years away, but his performance at the WJC and his production against men in the SHL have me pretty convinced he'll be a good one. His wait time is the reason I had him at the very bottom of my list of 50.

Zach Dean, STL– St. Louis has Jimmy Snuggerud and Zach Bolduc on the way, so I can understand why a lot of people have Dean low on this list or off it altogether. But Dean's track record in terms of playoff hockey makes me feel like he is one of those players who force their way onto rosters even when there isn't room. They always find a way.

Emil Andrae, PHI – Every year when I do this FPR, one or two prospects jump out at me as being very underrated for fantasy hockey. Andrae is the 2023 representative. He's a small player who reminds me of Tobias Enstrom and how Enstrom caught us off guard by making the NHL and producing right away.

Zachary L'Heureux, NSH – Nobody had him higher than 42 and he only appeared on five lists. I had L'Heureux at 46. Not huge upside, and still a good two years off.

Ruslan Iskhakov, NYI – A future Dobber Darling? I had him 36. He was only on one other list (Pat Quinn's). He's your typical Dobber Darling – a 5-8 winger with tons of skill. What I like about him most is how quickly he transitioned his production to the AHL. Every league that he has played, in fact, has seen him produce in a big way. Will the Islanders' stingy offensive style finally put a stop to that? Stay tuned.

Nikolai Kovalenko, COL – I was the only player to have Andrei's son on my list. I had him 33^rd. Why would people hesitate to choose him? Because he has shown little interest in crossing the pond. But he has already played five KHL seasons (he's only 23) and his KHL contract is up next year. The Avs will get Valeri Nichushkin to try to win him over I'm sure.

I usually have quite a few from my personal list not crack the consensus Top 50, as the other writers/scouts tend to favor the latest draftees. My strategy is to favor last year's draftees. Or the year prior. Why? Because they're a year further along. They're more developed! It's easier to evaluate a player when he has an extra year or two of data. Plus – he's that much closer to an NHL job. Less time taking up a spot on your reserve or minors list. You can use that spot for another prospect. So, while other GMs are waiting that extra year or two for the latest shiny new toy to develop, I've already made a keep-or-move decision on an older player and have moved onto the next one.

Last year I had Carson Lambos, Ryker Evans, Sean Farrell, Noah Ostlund, Nick Perbix, Filip Mesar and Helge Grans on my list and they didn't crack the overall Top 50.

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See you next Monday.