Wild West: Top UFAs in the West Next Year

Grant Campbell

2023-06-05

Teams will need to make some pretty large decisions on some of these players as they all will be entering the 2023-2024 in the final year under contract with their current teams.

As we saw with players like Patrick Kane anything can happen and no-movement clauses can be waived.

Anze Kopitar – Los Angeles – (36 years old when contract expires) – Center – $10.0M (expiring Cap hit)

The similarities with Patrick Kane end with the Kings being a very competitive team and Kopitar being their captain and still producing. He had 28 goals and 74 points which were his most since his 35 goals and 92 points in 2017-2018.

I don't see him going anywhere else and he should retire as a member of the Kings in four or five years.

Blake Wheeler – Winnipeg – (37) – Winger – $8.25M

Wheeler had the captaincy taken away before last season and his production slowed down 0.76 points per game which was his lowest since 0.54 he had split between Boston and Atlanta (!) in 2010-2011.

Wheeler has a 5-team trade clause which doesn't give the Jets much working room to broker a deal, so temper the return expectations for him.

I think there will be a few key changes in Winnipeg over the next 12 months.

Connor Hellebuyck – Winnipeg (31) – Goalie – $6.17M

Over the past six seasons, Hellebuyck has been one of the most consistent goalies in the NHL and is coming off his best regular season in his career.

I'm sure the Jets would love to keep Hellebuyck, but a lot will depend on how this team does before the trade deadline next year and the amount of money Hellebuyck is looking for.

One would think that if the team moves on from Wheeler, Mark Scheifele and even Pierre-Luc Dubois, it increases the chances of Hellebuyck being moved as well.

Mark Scheifele – Winnipeg (31) – C – $6.125M

Scheifele has a modified NTC which allows him to submit a 10-team list that he cannot be traded to.

Coming off of a career-high 42 goals, it would seem that Scheifele should be riding a high. In reality, it was a disappointing year for him where he was inconsistent at times and struggled a little defensively.

I don't think the Jets look at him as a core piece any longer and will look to move him before the trade deadline. Scheifele should be one of the most sought after trade chips next year.

Mats Zuccarello – Minnesota (36) – W – $6.0M

Zuccarello has played in the NHL for 13 seasons and has had his two most productive years playing with Kirill Kaprizov this year and last where he had 67 and 79 points.

Zuccarello has a M-NTC where he can submit a 10-team no trade list but it's unlikely it comes to that. The only issue the Wild and Zuccarello might have is term, but Zuccarello would be a fool to play anywhere other than with Kaprizov. The Wild won't want more than two years, where I'm sure Zuccarello will want three.

Adam Henrique – Anaheim (34) – C – $5.825M

Henrique is sure to be on the trading block as the Ducks are well outside of the playoff hunt still.

Henrique is a very versatile center who can play up and down the lineup from the first to third line, who is very good in the faceoff circle and can kill penalties as well. He's a valuable trade chip for the Ducks at the deadline or earlier.

Henrique has a 10-team no trade list clause.

Jordan Eberle – Seattle (34) – W – $5.5M

63 points was Eberle's most productive campaign since he matched that in 2014-2015 while with Edmonton. He's a bit of a streaky player who has managed to post 20 goals eight times in his 13 years in the league.

The Kraken should want him to remain, but depending on what he does early in 2023-2024 will determine his future with Seattle. I can envision a scenario where the Kraken value him around $4 million AAV for three years, but Eberle might feel comfortable where he's at around $5.5 million AAV.

Eberle has a 16-team no-trade list clause.

Mikael Backlund – Calgary (35) – C – $5.35M

Backlund has been with Calgary since he was drafted 24th overall in 2007. He has played 909 regular season games as a Flame and had his most points (56) as a 34-year-old.

Backlund is a valuable second or third-line center on most NHL teams who can shut down opposition forwards, kill penalties and score a timely goal.

He has a 10-team trade list clause, but I believe the Flames will extend him for another three seasons.

Jonathan Marchessault – Vegas (33) – W – $5.0M

Marchessault is enjoying a fine playoffs and is in the Stanley Cup Finals against Florida where he has 10 goals and 18 points in 18 games so far.

He has scored 20 goals four times and 30 goals twice in the past seven seasons, with the only year he didn't because of Covid where he still managed 18 goals in 55 games.

Marchessault re-upping in Vegas will be a tough one, which how Vegas does against Florida will be a huge factor going forward. 

Teams that win the Cup, don't tend to give older players term and a raise, but free agency tends to.

Marchessault has a five-team no trade clause.

Noah Hanifin – Calgary (27) – Defense – $4.95M

Hanifin is underpaid at $4.95 million AAV and could be hitting a payday the first time he could become a UFA at the end of 2023-2024.

The question for the team and player will come down to term and salary. Hanifin will want something like eight years and $8 million AAV while the Flames will be looking to keep him closer to the $6.25 million AAV they signed Mackenzie Weegar for.

Hanifin has an eight-team no trade clause.

Elias Lindholm – Calgary (29) – C – $4.85M

For the Flames to sign Lindholm they will need to give more than six years of term and more than $7 million AAV and perhaps even $8 million AAV.

He is the team's number one center and although he clearly missed Matthew Tkachuk and Johnny Gaudreau, Lindholm still was one of the best overall forwards for this group.

Lindholm doesn't have a NTC.

Tyson Barrie – Nashville (32) – D – $4.5M

Barrie was dealt to Edmonton at the trade deadline last year, which gave Evan Bouchard the keys to the Oilers PP.

Barrie doesn't really make sense for the Predators short or long-term so I believe he will be moved at some point. He can be a useful PP quarterback who has 489 career points with 202 of those coming with the man advantage. Barrie can struggle without the puck in his own end.

Barrie does not have a NTC.

Chris Tanev – Calgary (34) – D – $4.5M

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It's hard to believe that four years at $4.5 million was too much for Jim Benning and the Canucks to re-sign Tanev for in 2020, but here we are.

Tanev has been healthier than most would have predicted in his first three years in Calgary and has only missed 17 games in total.

It will be interesting to see if teams still value him at around $4.5 million AAV or can the Flames get him for three more years at around $3.5 to 4? He's a valuable defender who could play on 32 teams.

Tanev has a 10-team no trade list clause.

Viktor Arvidsson – Los Angeles (31) – W – $4.25M

Arvidsson had a relatively healthy season in 2022-2023 where he played 77 games and put up 26 goals and 33 assists. It was the first time he had played more than 66 games since 2017-2018.

While $4.25 million AAV might seem like a bargain, Arvidsson signed a seven year term with Nashville after putting up 30 goals and 31 assists in his second NHL season.

If he can duplicate 59 points, he's into the $5 million AAV plus tier and will that number agree with the Kings going forward.

Arvidsson doesn't have a NTC.

Tyler Toffoli – Calgary (32) – W – $4.25M

Toffoli had a career-year last season when he had 34 goals and 39 assists in 82 games and led the Flames in scoring.

Even if Toffoli can put up 25-30 goals and 55-60 points, he could command $5 million AAV over three or four years from either Calgary or someone in free agency after 2023-2024.

The Flames have some big decisions moving forward.

New General Manager, Craig Conroy sure has some work to do with Backlund, Lindholm, Hanifin, Tanev and Toffoli over the next 12 months. 

Anthony Beauvillier – Vancouver (27) – W – $4.15M

Beauvillier set his career-high in points with 40 split between the NY Islanders and Vancouver. For his role and his production, his salary is high.

He had nine goals and 11 assists in 33 games in Vancouver and had some time on a line with Elias Pettersson. For the Canucks to retain Beauvillier and give him similar money, he'd have to catch fire pretty early next year and get on a pace for 30 goals. Otherwise, I think the Canucks move him before or at the deadline.

Devon Toews – Colorado (30) – D – $4.1M

Something will have to give in Colorado over the next 12 months. The Avalanche can't afford to have Cale Makar, Samuel Girard, Bowen Byran and Toews on the back end and be able to dress 12 forwards.

It will help, with Erik Johnson and his $6 million cap coming off the books and $7 million in LTIR for Gabriel Landeskog, but Toews should be in the $7.5 to 9 million AAV range after the past two years.

I've been saying this for awhile now, but look for Girard to be moved at some point.

Toews does not have a NTC.

Chandler Stephenson – Vegas (30) – C – $2.75M

When Stephenson broke out a little in 2020-2021 where he had 35 points in 51 games, I assumed and some others did as well, that he was a product of playing with Mark Stone and Jonathan Marchessault and others.

This year and last, Stephenson has proven that he is quite capable of producing on his own as Stone has missed a lot of time and he was able to put up 64 and 65 points back to back. To add value to his portfolio, he was also 58.1 percent in the face off circle this year.

The dilemma for Vegas and Stephenson is that he deserves to probably double his salary and should be in the ballpark of $5 to 5.5 million AAV for at least four or five years.

The Golden Knights are going to have a lineup of players who will be looking to cash in on this run whether they win or lose.

Ryan Hartman – Minnesota (29) – C – $1.7M

Hartman is a little similar to Chandler Stephenson above in that he broke out two years ago with 34 goals and 31 assists while playing with either Kevin Fiala or Kirill Kaprizov.

He struggled with some injuries in 2022-2023 and played in just 59 games where he had 15 goals and 22 assists. He played with Zuccarello and Kaprizov 53 percent of the time in 2021-2022 and 30 percent last year. It obviously had an effect on his production but he is still due a pretty healthy raise from his $1.7 million AAV.

What the Wild do with Hartman in the short-term might be influenced with the expected development of Marco Rossi over the next 12 months.

Some other intriguing UFAs to be:

Tommy Novak – Nashville (27) – C – $0.800M

He might not get the playing time he was afforded with the injuries to Filip Forsberg and Ryan Johansen, but he should be pencilled in as the second or third line center. He might not be able to maintain a 69 point pace again, but he could get 45-55 points. The Predators aren't exactly deep at center ice.

Warren Foegele – Edmonton (29) – W – $2.75M

Foegele is a very useful player, but the Oilers are to near the cap to afford $2.5 to $3 million AAV on a player who will produce 10-15 goals and 25-30 points. He could be moved at some point.

Yakov Trenin – Nashville (27) – W – $1.7M

Trenin is an intriguing player who had 17 goals in 2021-2022 and followed it up with 12 last year. He had 167 hits in 77 games and plays a fairly effective shut-down role on the third line. With the price tag that his teammate Tanner Jeannot got in return at the trade deadline, I'm sure the Predators will be listening once again. Albeit Jeannot was a restricted free agent, with a few more tools in his tool belt.

William Carrier – Vegas (29) – W – $1.4M

I read online that Carrier could be the best fourth liner in the NHL and they might very well be correct. He hasn't played more than 71 games in seven seasons, but he plays a very physical, checking style. He has seen an uptick in goals the past two seasons with nine in 2021-2022 and 16 this year. He could price himself out of another contract in Vegas.

Samuel Blais – St. Louis (28) – W – $1.0M

Blais had 17 points in his last 20 games of the year with the Blues and ended up with 25 points in 71 games. He had a great showing at the World Championships with Canada in late May. He could be on the verge of a bit of a breakout. The Blues would be wise to sign him for two or three years on the cheap right now.

Dakota Joshua – Vancouver (28) – W – $0.825M

Joshua finished off well in 2022-2023 with nine points in his last 20 games. He finished with 11 goals, 12 assists and 222 hits in 79 games. He is certainly capable of 15 goals but will need to shoot a little more to get there. I would think the Canucks would want to see if his late season surge translates to early success next season. Otherwise look for him to be trade bait.

Michael Amadio – Vegas (28) – W – $0.762M

Amadio had 16 goals in 67 games this year on 99 shots on goal. He has some skill and has been great value for Vegas who picked him up on waivers in early 2021-2022 from Toronto. He's been pretty effective in the playoffs for Vegas as well and has earned a bit of a raise if he can carry it forward for one more year.

Thanks very much for reading and if you have any comments or suggestions, please leave them below or follow me on Twitter @gampbler15

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