Eastern Edge: Performances in New Locales Including Gaudreau and Perron

Brennan Des

2023-06-13

In this week's Eastern Edge, we'll continue our discussion of how certain players performed in their first season with a new team. This is the second of three parts. If there's a big name you don't see here, we might have covered them last week, or we might discuss them next week. 

Johnny Gaudreau

Gaudreau's first year in Columbus did not go as planned. After posting a career-high 115 points with the Flames last season, he managed just 74 with the Jackets this year. I'd say a downgrade in line mate chemistry is the biggest reason for the drastic drop in production. Gaudreau spent his last season in Calgary beside two well-rounded stars in Matthew Tkachuk and Elias Lindholm. Having had a chance to develop chemistry in previous years, the trio formed one of the best lines during the 2021-2022 campaign. Playing nearly 1000 minutes together, they dominated the opposition, controlling 58.6% of the shot share and holding a 63.2% share of high danger chances, ultimately outscoring opponents 89-38 at even strength (via NaturalStatTrick). Gaudreau's first season in Columbus saw him spend most of his time beside Patrik Laine and Boone Jenner. Through 270 minutes together, the trio controlled 53.7% of the shot share and 52.4% of high danger opportunities but ended up getting outscored 17-21.

Although the results weren't quite there, it's encouraging to see that the process was. If they continue to play the same way, creating more high-quality opportunities than the opposition, you have to think the puck will start going in more often. Jenner and Laine may not be as well-rounded as Tkachuk and Lindholm, but Laine has elite offensive ability and Jenner is comfortable with defensive responsibilities. There could be the right mix of strengths for this combination to work out. More time together next season might help them develop the chemistry needed to produce at a higher level. It's worth noting that Zach Werenski – Columbus' best puck-moving defenseman – missed the majority of last season due to a shoulder injury. Having Werenski back in the fold should also help Columbus' offense next season. I'm not sure if we can expect another 115-point season out of Gaudreau any time soon, but I would expect him to bounce back with more offense during the 2023-2024 campaign. 

David Perron

Since 2017, Perron has established himself as someone who can reliably flirt with a 70-point pace. As a result, it was disappointing to see him to post just 56 points this season, his first with the Red Wings. If you divide Perron's season into quarters, an interesting pattern emerges. He had a decent start to the season, posting 16 points in 21 games, and a strong end to the season, tallying 18 points in his last 20 appearances. That stretch in the middle is what let him down as he posted just 11 points in both the second and third quarter (22 points in 41 games). It's worth noting that during the first quarter and the last quarter, Perron spent most of his time on a line with Dylan Larkin and Dominik Kubalik. During that middle stretch, he spent significant minutes beside Michael Rasmussen, with either Larkin or Andrew Copp playing center. Now, aside from Larkin, the entire team struggled to produce during that middle stretch, so line combinations may not entirely explain Perron's pattern of production. Regardless, it seems playing with Larkin and Kubalik could be good for Perron.

Perron's reduced offensive output is partially explained by a reduced role with the man advantage. Although he saw a significant share of Detroit's total power-play time (64%), he didn't factor into the offense very much, registering a point on just 54% of power-play goals scored while he was on the ice. During his last seasons in St. Louis, Perron would factor in on at least 74% of PP goals scored while he was on the ice. After scoring 0.38 power-play points per game in each of his last three seasons with the Blues, Perron posted a more modest 0.27 PPP/game with the Red Wings this year. Detroit's power play ranked 17th this season, so there's definitely room to improve and figure out how to better utilize Perron.

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Mike Matheson

Stuck in a supporting role for most of his career, a move to Montreal meant more responsibility for Matheson. Recent seasons with the Penguins and Panthers saw him average less than 19 minutes of action a night, without much of a power-play role. This season, his first with the Canadiens, Matheson skated 24 and a half minutes per game, enjoying a 64% share of the team's time with the man advantage. Increased opportunity fuelled increased production as Matheson posted a 58-point pace this season, a massive upgrade from the 30-point defenseman he'd been in recent years. Although Matheson scored at an impressive rate this season, he didn't finish the season atop any scoring leaderboards because injuries caused him to miss nearly half of the campaign. As a result, this strong performance will likely fly under the radar and Matheson will probably be selected later than he should be during upcoming fantasy drafts. He's the number-one defenseman on a team with plenty of up-and-coming young talent. I think 60 points is in the cards for him next year if he can stay healthy. He also provides a good number of shots, blocks and hits, making him a strong asset in multicategory leagues.

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