Last week, we had a pair of Ramblings that covered some playmaking data. The first looked at how certain players fared when compared to their teammates, rather than across the league, and the second looked at dangerous playmakers on the power play, but it ended up being more of a dig on how power play formations work.

Today, we will continue the playmaking data series. While a lot of our primary stats will be from our Frozen Tools or Natural Stat Trick, the playmaking data itself is tracked by Corey Sznajder. The specific category we're looking at today is simply 5-on-5 scoring chance assists (SCA/60), which measures how often a player assists on his teammate's scoring chances. For this article, we are going to look at the biggest improvements (or declines) by scoring chance assist rate among forwards in 2022-23 when compared to 2021-22. That will naturally exclude rookies and players that were injured for extensive periods of time in either season. The defencemen will get their own shine eventually, and I discussed some changes in overall scoring chance creation from the blue line a couple months ago. This is a subject I will return to often.

Final caveat: we're going to avoid the players involved in the Matthew Tkachuk trade, or the high-end guys that left Calgary, in general. There have already been a few Ramblings this offseason discussing the drop in play from Jonathan Huberdeau, Johnny Gaudreau, MacKenzie Weegar, and so on. There is no need to keep feeding a fed horse.

Let's look at some improvements first.

Among the 307 forwards in our sample (150 tracked minutes at 5-on-5 in both seasons), 177 of them saw an improvement in scoring chance assist rate. (The average scoring chance rate per player rose roughly 11% the year before.) Of all the forwards tracked, the average SCA/60 this past season was 3.11. The players who saw a year-over-year improvement averaged 3.6, and the average improvement was 0.92. Those latter two numbers are the ones we're going to use as barometers.

For a reference, here are the 14 players that saw the largest increases, representing the top half of the biggest risers:

All good to go? Great. Let's start with guys who added to their SCA/60 from 2021-22.

William Nylander

Despite underwhelming fantasy seasons from a few key members of the Leafs offence, Nylander had a career year in goals (40), assists (47), power play assists (19), and shots (293). He trailed only Auston Matthews in 5-on-5 goals and only Mitch Marner in 5-on-5 assists, out-pointing John Tavares by 32%. Having a huge jump in SCA/60 helps, and it's worth pointing this all out considering the potential for the Toronto core to be blown up any time in the next 12 months.

Michael Amadio

Amadio has suited up for four different teams over the last three seasons, found himself on waivers, and yet stands one game away from being a Stanley Cup champion while being a meaningful playoff contributor with 9 points in 15 games (so far). He is playing with good players, but he also improved his play by adding 3.1 scoring chance assists per 60 minutes, which is literally the league average for forwards. The better players help, but he has been good offensively in lower roles elsewhere, so it's just coming together for him. His fantasy value is minimal because of his ice time, but still worth noting.

Owen Tippett

A guy known mostly for his shot adding a genuine playmaking dimension to his game is very interesting. His official rate of 3.98/60 isn't great – above average but not high-end – but it's light years better than where it was. Perhaps there was a reason Tippett put up 19 career assists at 5-on-5 total before 2022-23, and 17 such assists in 2022-23. The ice time jump helped immensely, but improving the playmaking while also getting a lot more ice time is very exciting for his fantasy value moving forward.  

Kaapo Kakko

Last month, over on my personal blog, I wrote extensively about the first three seasons of Alexis Lafrenière's career. The one thing that stuck out to me was how good he was in net-front situations like deflecting/tipping the puck (not Joe Pavelski– or Chris Kreider-like, but still very good). I bring that up because of Kakko's improved playmaking; his SCA/60 literally tripled from the year before. Even with that improved playmaking, Lafrenière's goal-scoring rate at 5-on-5 was easily the worst of his career, so maybe there’s a disconnect in how they want to play and their actual strengths. The Kid Line continues to be fascinating.  

Quinton Byfield

Again on my personal blog, I wrote about how Quinton Byfield transformed the Los Angeles top line in the second half of the season. While his speed, quickness, and defensive work will stand out from him most games, his ability to find the right passing lane, or exercise patience to let that lane open up, is something few others brought to the top line, and certainly without that skating/defence. One year lost to COVID, one year lost to injury, and it seemed like he finally started showing his promise from January onward. Fantasy owners looking for a post-hype breakout, especially in banger leagues, here we are, though top PP minutes are an ongoing concern.

Alex Newhook (3.66 SCA/60, Improvement of 1.63 SCA/60)

One problem Colorado is running into is a lack of prospect depth. They put a lot of eggs into the Alex Newhook basket, and that hasn't paid off yet. There are signs of life, though. He did have a poor scoring chance assist rate a couple years ago, but is now roughly 20% above the league average. He also  had 4.1 zone entries with passes per 60 minutes, a rate that was similar to Kirill Kaprizov and Martin Necas. He has a lot of work to do before he's a well-rounded offensive threat, but at least there are improvements happening.

And now for the declines. Here are the 14 largest declines:

There are definitely some interesting names here.

Sonny Milano

One of my personal favourites over the last couple years is Sonny Milano. My penchant is for players that I think are valuable that NHL franchises do not, and Milano (like Amadio earlier) fits that bill. Milano posted a five-year high in 5-on-5 goals (10) and a career-high in assists (17), the latter despite his drop in scoring chance assists. I would be wary here as the Washington core is aging and the Caps shot 11.2% at 5-on-5 with Milano on the ice, easily the highest of his career – previous high in a semi-full season was 2021-22 at 7.6% – and easily the highest among regular Caps forwards (no one else hit 10%, let alone 11%). Without a jump in ice time, he could be hard-pressed for a third straight season of at least 10 goals and 20 assists, especially if the team stays healthy and his role is uncertain.

Jordan Kyrou

Just last week, I wrote about how Kyrou was taking a lot of St. Louis's shots when he was on the ice. It is a good thing, too, because his SCA/60 declined by more than half from 4.9 in 2021-22 to 2.3 this past season. Over his first two full seasons from 2020-22, Kyrou averaged 1.51 assists per 60 minutes at 5-on-5. That fell to 1.07 this past year, part of it related to the team declining and part of it related to his focus on shooting rather than passing. He has tremendous offensive upside, but the difference between 40-goal/40-assist and 40-goal/60-assist seasons could be regaining that playmaking touch.

Evan Rodrigues

Another personal favourite that saw a playmaking decline, it's worth noting that Rodrigues's rate was nearly bang-on the league average. There was a drop, but it's not cataclysmic. On the flipside, he had basically an identical increase in individual scoring chances, so it seemed the offensive threat stayed about the same, only the manner in which he created that threat changed. If can ever learn to shoot at an above-average NHL level…

Nico Hischier

This one surprised me a bit considering the massive improvements New Jersey made to its entire team, offence included. Hischier also led the team in assist rate at 5-on-5, and had one of the highest rates in the league, which seems to contradict his underlying playmaking stats. I looked into it and remember that hot streak Dawson Mercer had just after the All-Star break with 11 goals in 11 games? Well, Hischier racked up five primary assists in that span, about a quarter of his season's total. Just having a couple primary assist in that span, rather than five, changes his rates a lot. I don't like the game of "when these guys were producing a lot, it inflated their rates" because it’s arbitrarily discounting things that happened, but I'd be wary about relying on a hot streak from a guy that scored 16 goals in his other 71 games to float Hischier’s assist rates. With all that said, Hischier and the team around him are good enough that I think the Swiss centre will keep producing as he has.

Cole Perfetti (2.90 SCA/60, Decline of 1.35 SCA/60)

I bring up Perfetti not because of some concern about his decline – well above average to slightly below average – but because of the team around him. The rumour mill is spinning about Pierre-Luc Dubois wanting a trade, Connor Hellebuyck not re-signing, and so on. Perfetti's season was cut short by injury, and if everyone returns he has tremendous offensive upside. But if his playmaking stagnates, even for just one more year, as the team is dismantled around him, it's hard to get excited about his short- and medium-term fantasy prospects.

Adrian Kempe (2.94 SCA/60, decline of 1.31 SCA/60)

Let's be honest here, Kempe isn't a playmaker anyway. His best assist rate ever at 5-on-5 was his 2017-18 season, a year that saw him finish around the 55^th percentile in the league. His assist rate hit a three-year high in 2022-23 even with the downturn in SCA/60, though. Anze Kopitar's improved 5-on-5 scoring helped, and each of Kempe's assists came with Kopitar on the ice (they did play basically the whole year together). I wanted to include Kempe because we had Byfield earlier in the improvement section, and they often skated together at 5-on-5 over the final 45 games or so. Kempe doesn't need great SCA/60 rates if Byfield keeps improving. Kempe just has to put the puck in the back of the net, though I think we've reached the point where we can stop realistically hoping for Kempe to be a true 40-assist threat.