Welcome back to Forum Buzz, where I peruse the DobberHockey Forums and weigh in on active, heavily debated, or otherwise relevant recent threads, reminding folks just how great a resource the Forums are. Nearly anything might be covered here, other than trades and signings, which usually get their own separate write-ups on the main site and are also normally covered in the next day’s Ramblings, or questions that are specific to salary cap issues, which is the domain of the weekly Capped column. To access the specific forum thread on which a question is based, click on the “Topic” for that question.

Topic #1 – Auston Matthews can be a UFA in 2024. July 1st not only marks the date that he can re-sign with Toronto, but also when his no trade clause kicks in. Does he stay with the Leafs? If so, for how much and how long? Or if he waits to be a UFA, what will he earn and where?

Timing is everything in terms of being a UFA, as it's quite possible Matthews will become the highest salaried player in the NHL upon signing his next deal even though it's fair to say he's not the best player in the NHL, nor is he likely to inherit that crown. Still, prior to 2022-23 Matthews had seen his scoring rise with each campaign, and he only turns 26 this offseason, meaning he should have plenty of gas left in the tank.

I see three scenarios that could unfold. First is he decides that he wants to be a Leaf for life, while the second is he decides to move on and waits to become a UFA so as to be able to sign anywhere. But there's a third choice, which is he inks a deal with the Leafs for a few seasons, to see what unfolds in Toronto and to perhaps cash in even more if, as expected, the cap jumps.

If Matthews was Canadian, I think it'd be an open and shut case he sticks with Toronto, as that is hockey nirvana. Not only is Matthews from the US though, but Toronto is likely going to undergo major offseason changes, which started already by the announcement that Kyle Dubas would not be returning. As such, I think the scenario where Matthews signs a huge deal to stay a Leaf for life is the least likely scenario. But if he was to do that, it'd likely be for a contract that has a 13 as the first two numbers, and for the max of eight years. I just don't think that's what either side will want.

If Matthews does believe the Leafs can right their ship, he possibly stays there via a contract for two-to-four seasons, likely at a slightly higher number in exchange for him foregoing part of his UFA years. I could see that type of deal at just a hair below $14M per season.

The last scenario is Matthews signing as a UFA this time next season. It'd be a risk, as he could get hurt or have another subpar season, especially if the Leafs realize he's not coming back and try to position themselves to move on from him once he's gone. The reality is most teams who could afford to pay him the money he'd earn, which would assuredly have a $14 in front of it, also are not necessarily the best out there. What teams could be a UFA destination for Matthews. We all hear about Arizona; but would he really hitch his wagon to them? I could see instead somewhere like Carolina, a team with a solid core but also cap room to improve, plus they'd giftwrap the top line center spot for him, with a great crop of wingers.

What's my predication? I think Matthews washes his hands with Toronto, becomes a UFA next summer and cashes in with the Canes for seven years, earning $14.2M per season.

Topic #2 – In a 12 team, keep 6, H2H league with categories of G, A, PTS, PPPts, FOW, SOG HIT, BLK, W, SVs, SV%, GAA, Games Started and rosters of 2C, 2LW, 2RW, 4D, 5BN, 2IR, 1IR+, 1NA, a team's keeper options are:

C: Nick Suzuki, Roope Hintz, Joel Eriksson Ek, Matty Berniers
LW: Anthony Cirelli (C), Timo Meier (RW), Trevor Zegras (C)
RW: Drake Batherson, Tom Wilson
D: Adam Fox, Jacob Trouba, Devon Toews, Filip Hronek, Evan Bouchard
G: Marc-Andre Fleury, Pheonix Copley, Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
IR: John Carlson, Cale Makar, Juraj Slafkovsky
NA: Shane Wright

They're inclined to keep Makar, Fox, Trouba, Meier, Batherson, and Zegras. Should those be the keeps, or would it make sense to swap in anyone?

Nothing against this poster, but I'm not a fan of their list. I think with the emergence of K'Andre Miller, Trouba will be less of an all-around multi-cat guy, and definitely not keeper material. In his place I've got Bouchard, who was just under a point per game player over his final 20 games then amazed in the playoffs. I see no reason not to project him for 70+ points. Yes, he doesn't stuff the stat sheet like Trouba; however, points don't grow on trees like HIT and BLK.

I'm not keeping Zegras either. Do I feel he still has a high ceiling? Yes; however, Anaheim is not looking like they're poised to improve soon, and I fear Zegras will be slow to shine. Give me Hintz instead. Yes, Dallas is very stingy with top line ice time; but Jason Robertson still thrived, and as we saw in the playoffs Hintz can indeed be better than he's shown in the regular season.

I'm also tossing Batherson back into the draft pool. More and more he looks like a player who won't make the leap into truly elite territory. Yes, he's good in multi-cat; however, I like Nick Suzuki more. He's not shabby in multi-cat; and before Cole Caufield got hurt, he was tearing things up despite playing for the Habs. Yes, I said the Ducks will be bad and that's a reason not to keep Zegras; however, Suzuki has better multi-cat production and his ice time is great too, such that all it would take is for the Habs to be mediocre for Suzuki to be an 85-90+ point center.

As for Meier, I worry about him fitting in well in New Jersey. After he arrived he scored, shot, and hit less, and I fear that was a preview of things to come. Still though, "less" for him in those areas was still was a lot, even if it represented a drop from his San Jose days. Even if all he gives a team is ~60 points, 3.5 SOG, and 200 HITs, that is pretty darn good for this league, plus the team needs a wing to compliment its other center and defense keepers.

The other possibility is to trade Meier, who now has bigger name value than actual value, plus Zegras, for a goalie keeper. Yes, it would create the problem I said Meier would avoid, namely not keeping any wingers; however, I feel like a top tier goalie could be better.

Topic #3 – In a 12 team, keep 14 with skater categories of Goals (1), Assists (1), +/- (0.25), Hits (0.1), Blocks (0.1), PIM (0.1), SOG (0.1), GWG (1), PPP (1), SHP (1), who should be kept Kaapo Kakko or Alexander Holtz?

For starters, neither player is a multi-cat stud. What that means is the decision between them should be able to be based solely on who projects to be the better scorer.

Kakko is a year older, plus has almost two full seasons more NHL experience than Holtz. But all we have seen is Kakko struggle. He did manage to nearly reach the point per every other game level this season; however, he both started and finished poorly. What's more – he doesn't seem to be forcing New York's hand, as his SOG rate has gone down since his rookie season and his combined PPPts over the last three seasons don't even come close to the total he had just as a rookie. Yes, New York will have a new coach come 2023-24, and he may try to help the younger players like Kakko thrive, plus the Rangers are not deep at right wing, although one has to think they'll make a play for a UFA. Still, these combined factors might provide Kakko with his most realistic shot at making an impact since becoming an NHL regular. Of course, let's not forget that as a larger player he might need until game 400 to truly break out.

What do past comparables say about Kakko? Dating back to 1990-91, just three other players skated in 41+ games in each of their first four seasons by age 22, while, in doing so, posting less than a point per every other game in scoring and averaging under 1.8 SOG per contest each season: Tom Wilson, Taylor Pyatt, and Danius Zubrus. Wilson has become a semi-decent scorer but plays a rough a tumble game that is entirely unlike Kakko's. Pyatt went on to play until his early 30s but never bested the point per every other game mark. Zubrus had the most success, although he only excelled for two seasons and not until turning 27. And even if we look at those who did so three times by age 22, rather than four, we get a dozen players, of whom the only major successes were Daniel Sedin and Jeff O'Neill, with yet again the majority falling well short of expectations. Those hoping for positive news in terms of comparables, that certainly is not the case.

As for Holtz, his NHL resume is, as noted, much shorter. There was thinking among many that he'd make a huge splash this season; however, he disappointed in limited NHL action but yet again was impactful at the AHL level. The other issue is that since this time last season the Devs, who already had their fair share of wings, added Timo Meier and on top of that Dawon Mercer started to resemble the second coming of Carter Verhaeghe. Truth be told, New Jersey does not "need" Holtz as much as might've once been thought. Still, he was a top ten draft pick and thus I think they will give him a chance to make a mark if not this season then at some point. Holtz is not the type of player who can fit in a bottom six role, so if he does get trialed again with the big club, most likely it'll be on a scoring line. However, just because he was a top-ten pick and has done well at the AHL level doesn't mean he'll make a mark in the NHL. After all, the success rate for top ten picks is likely ~20-30%, and poolies sometimes lose sight of that.

If New York hadn't moved on from Gerard Gallant, I think I'd have been inclined to lean toward Holtz, who, after a year of maturing, might be poised to find his NHL footing. With the Rangers pretty thin at RW, at least until/unless they sign a UFA, Kakko has never had a better chance to find a path to success. Of course, the data from past comparables doesn't suggest that is likely to occur. Truth be told, I'm not too optimistic about either one; however, I think Kakko probably is the more correct pick given the circumstances, so I'm going with him.

Topic #4 – Will Bedard going to Chicago improve the outlook for their youngsters? If so, which ones stand to benefit the most?

Pop quiz – before this just completed season, and dating back to when Connor McDavid was a rookie, how many wingers on Edmonton had played in more than 65 games while scoring above a 65-point pace? How about zero. If we look at the Crosby/Malkin era in Pittsburgh, it took until Crosby's seventh season in the league and Malkin's sixth for a winger to thrive. Those who think that Bedard's presence will mean that others will fare well right from the get go even if he thrives might not realize that past history, while not necessarily indicative of future results, does not point to that happening.

If it was to happen, however, who would stand to benefit? Probably it'd be someone who's not already on the team, as Chicago now has reason to retool rather than rebuild, and my guess is they'd like to have Bedard center those with already demonstrated talent. I'm thinking the team brings in one or two UFA wingers, who in turn will stand the best chance to succeed.

Of the team's prospects, one has to think that Lukas Reichel would be in the best position to be able to line up alongside Bedard plus find success. In fact, an argument could've been made that Reichel deserved to stick with the Hawks for all of 2022-23; yet the team likely both wanted to try to tank and also perhaps to remove their talented youngster from a losing atmosphere. There are no guarantees the two will click if they play together. Although not really a prospect per se, Taylor Raddysh played well last season, especially on the man advantage, and could command a spot on PP1 even if the Hawks bring in a veteran wing or two. Beyond them there's Frank Nazar, who is still likely a couple of seasons away from being a regular. I'm not sure Nazar's size would complement Bedard, plus Nazar is a natural center, so Chicago likely envisions him and Bedard forming a 1-2 punch, rather than playing alongside each other.

In sum, expecting big production from wingers on Chicago in the near future might be a tall order; and if it is to occur, it might be free agents they sign to help ensure Bedard has players who can help him not only produce but adapt to the NHL. If I had to guess which wingers the team might target, I'd venture guys like Alex Killorn, Jason Zucker, and/or Tomas Tatar, each of whom is experienced but also talented enough to not bring down Bedard.

Topic #5 – In a 12 team, keep 12 league with categories of G, A, +/-, PIMS, PPG, PPA, SOG, Hits, BLK; W, L, GAA, SV%, SO and starting line-ups of 2C, 2RW, 2LW, 4D, 2UTIL, 1G, which 12 should be kept from this list:

F – Kyle Connor, Brayden Point, Brad Marchand, JT Miller, Trevor Zegras, Drake Batherson, Tom Wilson, Claude Giroux, Valeri Nichushkin

D – Rasmus Dahlin, Miro Heiskanen, Evan Bouchard, Noah Dobson, Victor Hedman, Shea Theodore, Zack Werenski

G – Carter Hart, Devon Levi, Ville Husso, Darcy Kuemper

The first question is whether or not to keep a goalie; and with just one in a starting line-up that includes 12 skaters, and there being only 12 total teams, I'd venture that at least half of all teams – if not more – won't bother keeping one. That having been said, it might be viable to try and trade for a goalie to keep in view of the outstanding depth the team has at defense. But more on that below.

Looking at forwards, Connor, Point, and Miller are easy keeps. Marchand too, as after a lukewarm season he showed in the playoffs he has gas left in the tank. Zegras probably has too bright of a future to risk not keeping here, so he makes the list. But more and more I'm starting to worry Batherson won't ever rise to the point per game level. Yes, he's sound in multi-cat but I think he's a maybe. Wilson is always tantalizing in these formats; however, he is at an age when rough and tumble players tend to break down, and Washington is a team on the decline. But his name value makes him a decent candidate for trade bait. I'd also look to see if there's interest in Giroux. He could be like David Perron and become a consistent point per game player in his mid 30s. But on the other hand, his shooting percentage was the second highest of his career and his goal total the highest, so he might've overachieved. If he is traded though, there is little worry of him taking it to another level. Nichushkin will figure prominently in Colorado's plans given that Gabriel Landeskog is out for the season; and although I don't like Nichushkin's Band Aid boy tendencies, he probably passes muster as a keeper.

Turning to defense, boy is this team stacked. Every one of them should be a keeper in a 12-team league; however, even when there are four starters there is such a thing as keeping too many, and I think I'd make the cut off five or maybe six. Werenski is great; however, with the way the Blue Jackets performed and him coming off injury, I feel he's a redraft candidate. Theodore just doesn't seem to be able to take that next step. Dobson is super talented but stuck on the wrong team for him; and it's not clear he can do better until/unless the Isles shift their focus more to offense, which might be unlikely given their coach and the fact that their best player is their goalie. Hedman could be on the verge of a greatly reduced role if 2022-23 was any indication. Yes, his trade value will be way down versus this time last year, but I'd still try to move him in combination with one or more of the forwards, either to upgrade at forward or get a keepable netminder.

The sure thing keepers are Connor, Point, Miller, Marchand, Zegras, Nich, Dahlin, Heiskanen, and Bouchard. I'd probably put all three of the other defensemen on the block with one or more of the other forwards, keeping three players that are received in return. Otherwise, I'd keep two of Dobson, Hedman and Theodore – probably Dobson and Hedman – plus Giroux.

Topic #6 – In a 12 team dynasty, H2H points, no cap, no max games league with starting lineups of 12F (4 slots per position), 6D, 2G, 32 players in total plus 21 minor slots, with minors eligibility being <80 NHL gams played, with categories of G: 4 / A: 2 / Blk, Hit, SOG: 0.5 each / W: 3 / SO: 1 / STP: 1 / SV% >.92: 1 / SV: 0.25, the posters team consists of:

C: Jack Eichel, Mathew Barzal, Nick Suzuki, Dylan Cozens, Casey Mittelstadt
W: Nikolaj Ehlers, Pierre-Luc Dubois, Clayton Keller, Pavel Buchnevich, Martin Necas, Jake Debrusk, Jared McCann, Seth Jarvis, Dominik Kubalik, Arthur Kalieyv, Jesse Puljujarvi, Blake Coleman
D: Jakub Chychrun, Evan Bouchard, Ivan Provorov, Neal Pionk, Nicolas Hague, Ty Smith, Jake Bean
G: Carter Hart, John Gibson, Philipp Grubauer, Linus Ullmark, Joonas Korpisalo

Prospects: Dylan Guenther, Nick Robertson, Matthew Knies, JJ Peterka, Lukas Reichel, Joakim Kemell, Matttias Maccelli, Calen Addison, Alexander Nikishin, Ryan Merkley, Casey Wallstedt

The team has had success trading away young, hyped players for proven assets. Should it go the same route, or look to move others in an effort to improve?

I responded in the post by saying that 1000% the guy to look to move first and foremost is Maccelli. Yes, he looked very good; however, he's not that young and he didn't even average a SOG per game, and that is not a recipe for scoring success from the wing. If you want actual numbers, of the 809 instances, dating back to 2000-01, of a winger scoring at a 0.7 point per game (i.e., 56 points) or higher pace, Maccelli's SOG rate (61 in 64 games) puts him dead last, and there were a mere six instances of any winger doing so while averaging less than 1.5 SOG per game, and two were by Alex Tanguay and two by new Nashville coach Andrew Brunette, so really only four players did so. Do not hitch one's fantasy wagon to Maccelli – no sir. Trade him and let him disappoint on another team.

I might also try to capitalize on Bedard hype to see what can be obtained for Reichel, since as noted above it took a long time for any winger to post over a 65-point-pace in over 65 games after Connor McDavid debuted, and the same was true for Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin. But folks are already talking up Reichel like he's going to thrive. I'm sure one GM in this league is drinking enough of the Bedard Kool Aid to be able to get a nice return for Reichel that more than justifies moving him.

I might also look to deal Mittelstadt. His stats look better than they were because of how well he did when Tage Thompson was hurt. Unless he switches to wing or the Sabres move him, he's stuck centering the third line, which won't get him close to the level of production he saw this past season. The hype is pretty high though, and he could be a trade candidate accordingly.

I'm also moving Ullmark. There is almost no way he comes even close to duplicating his 2022-23 performance and all it takes it one of the other GMs to be enamored with him to make moving Ullmark worthwhile.

I also like trading Chychrun. He's a "name" and fared pretty well in Ottawa before getting hurt. With Thomas Chabot being a minute eater and not as well rounded defensively, and Jake Sanderson a threat to be PP1 QB, that leaves Chychrun to fill a role similar to what Provorov had done in Philly, and we all know how poorly that went.

Try also to move Korpisalo, who played well above his depth last season. This is a goalie who is 29 years old and had double digit negative GSAA the prior two seasons. He is not the goalie we saw in 2022-23, but someone might think they'd be getting a steal. I'd take nearly anything in return from him, as I see him coming back to earth in 2023-24 with a crashing thud.

************

Questions for Mailbag column needed The upcoming edition of my monthly mailbag is pretty close to full. But you should still go ahead and send me your questions by either private messaging “rizzeedizzee” via the DobberHockey Forums, or emailing [email protected] with “Roos Mailbag” as the subject line.