The storylines always seem to write themselves once the Stanley Cup is won. The misfits from Vegas are taking home their first cup with a 9-3 win over the Panthers. Jack Eichel still with zero post-season series losses, Mark Stone returning from his multiple back surgeries, the goalie carousel culminating with Adin Hill padding his future wallet as an upcoming free agent, Jonathan Marchessault – the penultimate misfit – winning the Conn Smythe trophy… against the team that used him as bait to take Reilly Smith in the expansion draft, and that's just the storylines from Vegas.

Overall, it was an incredibly entertaining post-season, and we should be in for another fun summer, beginning with the buyout windows opening soon, and the NHL draft only two weeks away. In the meantime, congrats to the Golden Knights, and enjoy the summer!

It's a copycat league, to a fault, but if I was to take one lesson to learn from the Golden Knights, it is that the sunken cost fallacy really can stand in the way of making good decisions.

Thing about VGK that *really* helps them be good is the same thing they get derided for by some.
They have no sunk cost fallacy.

Pay a 1st/2nd/3rd for Tatar…send him away with a 1st (Suzuki) and 2nd for Pacioretty.

Pay a 1st to dump Pacioretty to CAR to create cap space. (1/

— Woodguy (@Woodguy55) June 12, 2023

Aside from the error that there was actually no first attached to Max Pacioretty to give him away, this is a great thread that outlines where Vegas had success with their so-called ruthlessness, and how that gave them an edge to make moves that many NHL teams would not and do not.

As a fantasy example, if you used a high-pick on a player that doesn't mean you need to keep them the next year if they have already turned into a pumpkin. It means they could still have a bit of name/trade value, so don't just throw them out without thinking, but there is something to be said for not hanging on to players just because you paid a lot to acquire them in the first place.

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On the topic of the Sens sale, which was the big news for the first half of yesterday. Usually there isn't a huge fantasy impact related to an NHL team being sold, but I see two noteworthy points to be made here relating to the fantasy landscape:

1. The added influx of money shows that we are past the Covid plateau of the league finances, and the cap (with salaries along with it) should really start to rise in 2024/25. This summer we could see some inflated numbers on longer deals, or shorter deals aimed to re-up with a much higher cap ceiling moving forward. Contracts have just become that much harder to predict.
2. Specifically, Alex DeBrincat is a tough projection for his salary, but it also depends on what team he signs with. There have been some trade rumours swirling. It did sound as though some of those were tied to the team not having stable ownership. If DeBrincat is satisfied with the new ownership, perhaps he decides it is now in his best interest to stay put and sign a long-term deal with a growing team. However, with there still being many hoops to jump through, perhaps it doesn't change anything this summer.

League sources say this deal may not close until September. Lots of work to be done to paper this one. Andlauer has to sell his share in the Habs as well. #Sens

— Bruce Garrioch (@SunGarrioch) June 13, 2023

In other news, the Rangers hired Peter Laviolette as their new head coach. His latest stop in Washington didn't end up being the best fit for both sides, but over the last two decades Laviolette has taken three separate franchises to the Stanley Cup Final. That is the goal for the Rangers, to be able to find success in the playoffs, working around the roster they have. Secondary to that, the team needs more out of their development, which is not something Laviolette has the best track record with. Cliffy gets a little more into that with his take here.

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I have four main fantasy questions for the offseason that I think will affect the fantasy landscape for the coming season, and I'll try to give my preliminary thoughts on them.

Which goalies will be up or down?

Projecting goalies is always the toughest part, as they fluctuate more from month to month and season to season than NHL skaters do. There are very few top-tier goalies, and even Andre Vasilevskiy has been inconsistent (or even downright bad for stretches) while Connor Hellebuyck seems to continue to follow his up and down pattern. The longer summer for Vas may pay off with a better season, while a possible trade or tear-down in Winnipeg will likely ensure that Helle does regress (perhaps substantially) from his numbers this past year.

Do we see any goalies come out of the woodworks to make impacts, like we saw with Akira Schmid, Stuart Skinner, or even Phoenix Copley the past year? There are always a couple of surprises, but those are next to impossible to project ahead of time. The changes that are more projectable and actionable are the ones with the musical chairs among teams, and the rise/fall of team strength (more on that later).

What will be the impact of 2023 Draftees?

Of the top draft picks, Connor Bedard should play the full season in the NHL (98% confidence). The expectation is that Adam Fantilli should as well (70% confidence), and perhaps whoever Columbus selects third overall, as they could play a sheltered role between Johnny Gaudreau and Patrik Laine (10% confidence). Aside from that, David Reinbacher could be ready, Ryan Leonard is physically developed, and there is always the possibility of another wildcard winning a spot in an injury-depleted lineup out of camp (maybe 25% odds we get more than half a season out of one of the other players).

We know these kinds of numbers as they are fairly consistent year to year, with only the top couple of 18-year-olds sticking. What does fluctuate though, is the production of these players. Looking back to 2019, we saw Kirby Dach and Jack Hughes each score less than 25 points through 60+ games. That may end up being more of a proper benchmark for Adam Fantilli than where many are expecting… maybe in the 55-point range. Bedard's numbers have already been reviewed many times, though I will reiterate that the expectation for somewhere in the ballpark of 65 points makes the most sense.

Aside from them, it's unlikely any other 2023 draftee tops 20 points next year, but I do have a feeling that someone does. Maybe it's Nate Danielson as a surprise second-line centre for the Canucks. Or perhaps Colby Barlow just clicks for a team that can fit him in like Washington, Detroit, or Philadelphia. There is so much optimism this time of year, but the reality is that the majority of rookie and breakout candidates will disappoint.

Which older players will decline?

Every year in the summer old players are underappreciated. Players like Joe Pavelski, Claude Giroux, Patrice Bergeron, Brent Burns, and even Sidney Crosby are traded for pennies on the dollar as every team tries to get younger and be ahead of the production curve.

Even the mid-tier guys like Alex Killorn, David Krejci, and Brock Nelson had some very good seasons when they were extremely cheap to acquire in the summer (I should know, I bought it on some of them then).

That's all well and good though, but eventually players do fall off. Mark Giordano is not what he once was, neither are Patrick Kane, Jonathan Toews, T.J. Oshie, etc. Eventually, the production just isn't there anymore, and when some of the star players get to a certain age, it is fair to wonder. Do the concussion issues from the playoffs slow a soon-to-be 39-year-old Joe Pavelski down? Alex Ovechkin will be 38 when next season starts, will his decline finally come? Victor Hedman may only be 32, but he has a ton of miles on him, and has been slowly getting surpassed by Mikael Sergachev. Is this the year it becomes obvious and all of your league-mates catch on to it as well? 

These are the right questions to be asking, and often the right answer isn't exactly clear. Sometimes the option to sell or buy these players is made for you if they are available super cheap (like Kane might be), or if you can still get an excellent return (like you might be able to for Hedman).

Which team to target?

Last year I managed to latch on to the Devils as a team due for a big jump in the standings and overall offence. It led to a lot of solid acquisitions and overall success. I didn't manage to get on the Buffalo train fast enough though, and I had a few too many Flames for my liking as well.

Looking at the Eastern Conference, the playoff teams from 2023 should all be primed for success again, which will make it difficult for others to make big strides. Ottawa and Detroit could be ready, and of the two I put my money on the Sens, but it likely won't be a similar kind of jump as what we saw with the Devils. This will be more like another baby-step forward.

Over in the West, I think we see an aggressive offseason from the LA Kings, and then a big season from them, finishing as a top-three team in the conference. They have a ton of depth, skill throughout the lineup, and so many assets to dangle in trades. Acquiring a true number-one like Juuse Saros or Connor Hellebuyck would be huge, but as we saw in New Jersey even a top-15 or 20 netminder in the league like Vitek Vanecek can make a world of difference behind the right group of skaters. The Kings goalie is going to be one to target in drafts in the fall, whoever that ends up being.

I also think we see steps forward from Anaheim. Not into the playoffs just yet, but similar to what we have seen from Ottawa and Detroit over the last two years. They are done with their days in the top-three of the draft, and are slowly going to be growing into a playoff powerhouse for the next number of years.

On the flip side, I am going to be vary of investing too much in Tampa Bay, Boston, or Winnipeg this summer.

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See you next Wednesday. In the meantime, you can find me on Twitter @alexdmaclean if you have any fantasy hockey questions or comments.