Ramblings: The Plan B That is Adam Fantilli and Friends … (June 20)

Dobber

2023-06-20

The Prospects Report was released June 1. Updated Friday with the 17th annual Mock Draft. You can order all of the 2023-24 fantasy products in the shop here (or subscribe!).

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A short while ago I gave you some other options in the likely situation that you are unable to secure Connor Bedard in your keeper league. I suggested possible teammates who could play with Bedard, thus experiencing a spike in production. But what if you fail in acquiring any of those guys?

Well, there's a Plan B.

Adam Fantilli is the Jack Eichel to Bedard's Connor McDavid. He can be everything that Eichel can be – minus the injuries. Can you imagine the kind of track record Eichel would have right now if he never got injured (as seems to be the case nearly every season)? That's Fantilli. Barring one hell of an all-time draft shocker, Fantilli will be drafted second overall. And barring a slightly-less shocker that sees Anaheim trade the pick, he'll be selected by the Ducks.

Fantilli will step into the NHL right away, as it's highly unlikely that he returns to college for his second year and it's just as unlikely that he gets cut from training camp and opts to play in the OHL (North Bay has his rights). He'll be in an Anaheim uniform in the fall.

Fantilli is a centerman, and he's joining a team that was very weak at the faceoff circle. Ryan Strome took the most draws, but his success rate was just 43.8%. Adam Henrique's 51.1% was the team best (500 faceoffs or more). Trevor Zegras took 573 draws and won just 41.4% of them. So yes, I can see Zegras getting pushed to the wing and play on Fantilli's line. If Fantilli can have even moderate success at the dot (say around 45%), then the two should stick. So who will win the lottery and take that sweet spot on the other wing? Aside from signing a free agent, here are my favorite candidates:

Frank Vatrano – Not as sexy as the other names below, but Vatrano is a proven 20-goal scorer who could easily make it 30 if he had a stud centerman. In his favor is the fact that he's getting paid $3.65M AAV and he's coming off a hot streak that saw him post 16 goals in the last 37 games. Of the other candidates I list here, his trade ask in your fantasy league will be the lowest (even lower than Comtois's).

Mason McTavish – Probably everyone's preference for this spot, and his owner will certainly be hanging onto him for dear life, swearing up and down that he'll be playing with Fantilli for sure. But…I don’t know… Much will depend on whether Greg Cronin wants to load up his lines, or spread out the offense. And if he loads up his top line, then it will be Terry, and not McTavish, who gets the spot. And if Cronin spreads out the offense, I tend to think it will be Vatrano getting the spot. McTavish may not be the favorite you think he is. Picture Vatrano – Fantilli – Zegras and then McTavish – Strome – Terry. Those are two solid lines. Either way, McTavish gets a nice upgrade in linemates. His asking price in keeper leagues will be too high (as is the price of most sophomores with any kind of upside, even without Fantilli), and I wouldn’t even bother inquiring about him unless his owner is generally easy to trade with.

Troy Terry – After two straight season being amongst the team's top two scorers, Terry is a legit producer regardless of who he plays with. But if Cronin wants to load up that top line, Terry will be on it, hands down. If you can secure Terry for the price of a 67-point player (which he was two seasons ago), then he's definitely worth grabbing because the upside as a Fantilli linemate bumps up his ceiling.

Max Comtois – Here is a long shot, as Comtois has nearly faded into irrelevance. But three things to keep in mind. One, he is still just 24. Two, he is entering his BT (Breakout Threshold) season. And three, he led the Ducks in scoring when he was 21. Injuries have played a role in his decline these last two seasons as well. You can probably get him off the waiver wire, as I doubt many fantasy owners hung onto him at this point. A long shot, but he shouldn't be dismissed.

As for prospects at forward, the cupboard is pretty bare right now. We'll need to see who else the team drafts next week. If you're considering Nathan Gaucher – don't. He's at least two years off, likely three. And once he arrives, he'll likely start slowly those first couple of campaigns.

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PS – If both Fantilli and Zegras struggle to win faceoffs, the two will likely be split up, with Henrique taking a turn on one of their lines. That's something to keep in mind.

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The power play will see an upgrade with Fantilli as well. Here are some Ducks defensemen to focus on:

Cam Fowler (of course) – Fowler is coming off of his first 82-game season in 11 years, as well as career highs in assists (38), points (48), IPP (51.1%) and points-per-game average (0.59). He also had a career low in secondary assist percentage (just 44.7% of his assists). As for a key stat in which he was actually fifth for his career? Power-play points! Can you imagine running a power play, even sharing time with Drysdale, with Fantilli? I think that, despite being 31, Fowler has another level of production.

Jamie Drysdale (of course) – After missing pretty much an entire season, I wonder if Drysdale begins the campaign in the AHL for 10 or 15 games before coming up and resuming his NHL career. He has very good upside, similar to Fowler – but less than the two players on this list below. There will be a short window in which Drysdale can seize the PP QB role before Mintyukov and/or Zellweger arrive, but he's still worth taking a chance on.

Pavel Mintyukov – Despite being a year younger than Zellweger, I lean towards Mintyukov if discussing which player has the best odds of making the jump straight to the NHL this year. Both Mintyukov and Zellweger are probably a full year away, but both have the ability to surprise in training camp and seize the job. Because of his size advantage and overall skill level, I lean towards Mintyukov. Long term, this is the guy you want. Fowler will just be a stopgap and Drysdale will be a secondary/supporting player for Mintyukov (or Zellweger).

Olen Zellweger – Listen. With prospects of this high caliber, one is as good as another. You just don't know until you see how they fare against bigger, faster pros. If you take Zellweger instead of Mintyukov, you have just as much of a chance of success as if you went the other way. Both have very high upside and similar arrival expectations. Zellweger is a little smaller, but a little older. Both prospects are left shots, so I suspect that whomever gets a foothold on the top PP job first, gets to keep it. As with Mintyukov, Zellweger is probably not your solution for the season ahead, but instead more of a longer-term guy.

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The Draft next week will be the 60th for the NHL, and it will be in Nashville for the first time since 2003. In that draft, Marc-Andre Fleury was taken first overall, and Shea Weber was taken 49th. That draft is recognized as one of the best ever, also seeing picks Eric Staal, Patrice Bergeron, Ryan Getzlaf and Joe Pavelski. In fact, 16 players from that 2003 draft have appeared in more than 1000 NHL games. Is history repeating itself? This draft next week is honestly pretty stacked (in case you didn't know!).

For just the second time in history, Chicago has the first overall pick. Of course, the other time was when they chose Patrick Kane.

Anaheim chose second on two other occasions: Oleg Tverdovsky (1994) and Bobby Ryan (2005).

Columbus has had three picks previously in the top three: Rick Nash (first in 2002), Ryan Murray (second in 2012) and Pierre-Luc Dubois (third in 2016).

San Jose hasn't chosen in the top five since 1998, when they chose Brad Stuart third overall.

The last time Montreal drafted in the top five in two consecutive years? That was in 1971 when they chose Guy Lafleur first overall, and then 1972 when they grabbed Steve Shutt at fourth. The last time Montreal picked fifth overall was when they took Carey Price.

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And in case you've been away…

NEW TOOL – AHL Line Combinations and Reporting Tools!

Yes, you read that right. AHL game logs and stats that include IPP! We can't get 100% accurate line combos, but we can get the line that was out there for every goal that is scored, which over time becomes close enough. You can now do your prospects research even more thoroughly!

Check out our 'AHL Central' hub here.

AHL Line Combinations? AHL Line Combinations!

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See you next Monday.

2 Comments

  1. Striker 2023-06-20 at 09:47

    I have Comtois as a monster class forward so still a long way to go, only 1/2 way to his breakthrough.

    • Dobber 2023-06-20 at 11:58

      I have him an inch too short, and five pounds too light. No cheating! This year or never. 6-2, 210 is nothing. Hell, I’m 6-1, 210 am I monster class? LOL

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