Ramblings: Johansen, Durzi Traded; Staal, Ingram Signed; Mock Draft Time (Jun 25)
Ian Gooding
2023-06-25
In the NHL, all it seems to take is one trade to get the ball rolling. Once a deal is made, other teams realize that they may have to act quickly so that their potential trade partner does not decide to go in another direction. With the draft starting on Wednesday and free agency starting on Saturday, expect a flurry of activity for at least a week. Then back to the dead of summer.
After a couple of trades earlier in the month, teams have been dormant for a couple weeks. Yet that inactivity was broken on Saturday, with the Predators trading Ryan Johansen to the Avalanche for Alex Galchenyuk (the Predators also retain half of Johansen's $8 million salary). Then the Kings traded Sean Durzi to the Coyotes for a second-round pick in the 2024 draft. In case you missed it, you can read the Fantasy Takes on the Johansen-to-Colorado trade and the Durzi-to-Arizona deal.
A third trade nearly went down, with Kevin Hayes and Travis Sanheim reportedly on their way to St. Louis in a potential blockbuster (Anthony SanFilippo). In addition to that, Elliotte Friedman is reporting that the Flyers are also working on a deal that would send Tony DeAngelo back to Carolina. Stay tuned, as both deals could be announced today (Sunday). Not that it's any real surprise at this point, but new GM Danny Briere seems to be directing the Flyers into full fire sale mode.
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Although they were not announced by their teams, two signings were also reported on Saturday: Jordan Staal and Connor Ingram.
According to multiple sources, the Hurricanes and Staal have agreed to a four-year contract with a $2.9 million cap hit. The Canes captain has settled into a third-line role, averaging 35 points over the past two seasons. I seem to consider adding him whenever the Hurricanes have a particularly strong schedule, as his production is fairly predictable and he's usually available.
Among lines that had at least 25 games together, Staal's line with Jordan Martinook and Jesper Fast had the highest Corsi For percentage (61.9%). In addition, Staal has had a faceoff win percentage of over 50% for over a decade. In addition, his 821 faceoffs won was in the top 10 of the league. Even though he is not a must-own in fantasy leagues, the 34-year-old Staal is a valuable player for the Hurricanes.
Meanwhile, Ingram has agreed to a three-year, $5.85 million contract to remain in Arizona, according to Elliotte Friedman. Ingram finished with a dismal 6-13-8 record, while his 3.37 GAA didn't really help fantasy teams. That being said, Ingram finished with a decent 55.6% quality start percentage and a 3.16 GSAA, which was a little bit above the league average. Don't expect him to start often enough to be universally rostered (let alone the team he plays for), but he could be a decent spot starter when the matchup is right.
The Coyotes appear to be bringing back an Ingram/Karel Vejmelka goaltending tandem, which means that Ivan Prosvetov should spend another season in the AHL. The 24-year-old Prosvetov showed the inconsistency of a young goalie, posting three consecutive quality starts in March with five total goals allowed before posting four consecutive games with a sub-.900 save percentage in April.
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With this being my last Ramblings before the draft, I've completed a short mock draft for the upcoming draft. Don't forget that this year's draft is not a weekend affair, with the first round scheduled to take place on Wednesday and the remaining rounds on Thursday.
I don't profess to being a prospects expert, and I am taking the information I am receiving from the real experts. Picking one player ahead of another doesn't always mean I think one player is a better player than another, so I'm not going to go down any deep scouting rabbit hole with this. I am simply trying to guess where each player is drafted, and I'm genuinely curious to find out how many I get right. In fact, I'd be thrilled if I get half of these correct. Since I started this, I've changed it several times based on new information that I've received.
I'll go 12 deep on this one for a couple reasons. First, I have a 12-team league that has a one-round entry draft. I have the first overall pick thanks to winning the draft lottery tournament for non-playoff teams (you can probably guess who I will pick), so I probably won't materially benefit from this. Second, I think the picks become a real crapshoot after this point. If you want a more comprehensive and thorough mock draft than this one, I would suggest the Prospects Report. Finally, I follow the Canucks more closely than any other team, so I have to find a way to include them here. Yeah, I know – I'm really thinking about the readers. 😊
Also, these are not fantasy rankings. Sometimes the line between real-life player value and fantasy value gets blurred. If you are evaluating draft-eligible players for your fantasy league, make sure you know the difference between the two. The Prospects Report has both, and there is value to showing both. After all, a player drafted higher is more likely to receive a legitimate NHL chance, and half the battle for prospects is simply getting their foot in the door. Checking for a prospect's NHL certainty is just as important as checking for their fantasy upside. You'll also want to pay attention to whether the player slots in as a potential defensive defenseman or third-line forward, even if they are a relatively high pick. In other words, you'll want to research deeper than just picking the next guy on the NHL draft results list.
Without further ado:
- CHI – Connor Bedard – I probably don't need to explain why by now.
- ANA – Adam Fantilli – He is the Jack Eichel to Bedard's Connor McDavid. Dobber has a detailed breakdown of what Fantilli on the Ducks could look like.
- CBJ – Leo Carlsson – You thought the Jackets were going to draft a defenseman? Nah, they go best player available. It may bump Kent Johnson or Cole Sillinger down a notch, but they could always move to the wing.
- SJ – Zach Benson – Intelligent, two-way player whose stock has been rising.
- MTL – Will Smith – Could easily swap places with Benson here as well.
- ARI – David Reinbacher – First defenseman drafted.
- PHI – Ryan Leonard – Physical game that fits the Flyer reputation.
- WSH – Matvei Michkov – The swing-for-the-fences pick whose biggest question mark is if and when he will get to North America. Don't forget about the Russian connection in Washington.
- DET – Oliver Moore – Strong two-way game is hard to pass up.
- STL – Dalibor Dvorsky – Complete player who could go in the Top 10.
- VAN – Axel Sandin Pellikka – A team that needs defensive help both now and in the future.
- ARI (from OTT) – Colby Barlow – Goal scorer with 46 goals in just 59 games in the OHL.
- And on – Your guess is as good as mine!
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Follow me on Twitter @Ian_Gooding for more fantasy hockey.