Fantasy Take: Hayes Sent to St. Louis

Michael Clifford

2023-06-27

With new management in Philadelphia and coach John Tortorella establishing his favourites, the clock was ticking on Kevin Hayes's tenure as a Flyer. The catch with Hayes was his contract, which has three years left, carries an average annual value over $7.1M, and a partial no-trade clause to boot. Philadelphia decided to retain half the salary on his cap hit in order to offload him to St. Louis:

That other piece mentioned by Weekes was the salary retention.

Let's break down what it means for fantasy owners.

What The Blues Get

With the exodus of talent over the last year, the Blues needed to fill out the roster with actual NHLers if they wanted a stop-gap until their next wave of prospects after Jordan Kyrou and Robert Thomas are ready. Hayes, who can play both centre and wing, and coming off a 54-point season where he was one of two Flyers forwards (Travis Konecny, 61 in 60 games) to crack 50 points. A big part of that were his 16 power-play points after posting just 20 in his first 172 games in a Philadelphia uniform.

Noel Acciari and Ryan O'Reilly were both traded from St. Louis and that left them with Thomas and Brayden Schenn down the middle. The team has used Schenn on the wing before so there is an opportunity to use him (or Hayes) on the wing with the other at centre, giving them the second-line centre they need after Thomas with some additional wing help. With Hayes and Schenn being left shots, and Thomas a righty, it wouldn't be surprising to see one of them on Thomas's left side and the other as the second centre, it's just a matter of which they want to use in which role. That will matter for leagues counting faceoffs. Of course, they could just use the three of them as their top-3 centres and that changes the equation for the guy lowest on the depth chart.

That Hayes is a good playmaking centre – better than he gets credit for – is important to this team offensively. If they want to maximize the utility of players like Jakub Vrana, Kasperi Kapanen, and Brandon Saad, they need forwards to create good scoring chances. Hayes can do that with his transition and playmaking. He can't eat the super-tough minutes like Ryan O'Reilly did, but he can set up his wingers just fine.

The next issue is ice time. St. Louis had five forwards skate 18 minutes a game last year, but four of them are set to return, and the one guy that is no longer in St. Louis (O'Reilly) left big shoes to fill. Hayes was over 18 minutes a night last year in Philadelphia until the post-All-Star-Game fiasco. If Hayes isn't used as a straight O'Reilly replacement, it's not hard to see him around 17 minutes rather than over 18 minutes.

It is a fine short-term fix for the Blues, but they now have 10 players under contract for at least three more seasons unless more trades are made. It doesn't leave a lot of room for guys like Jake Neighbours, Alexey Toropchenko, or Zachary Bolduc to not just make the team, but have an impact that makes them relevant in the fantasy game. With no more additions, there might be one spot open in the team's top-9, and being a third-liner on this roster does not portend high fantasy impact, so the younger guys will really have to stand out to be relevant in the near-term.

This does open a roster spot in Philadelphia, but the team has some injured forwards that could return, and this is surely not the end of the new management's adjustments. Hayes was a fixture (as much as one could be in Philadelphia) of their top PP unit, as was James van Riemsdyk, but if Sean Couturier and Cam Atkinson both return, it opens up a second PP unit spot, at best, and no Flyers forward that played on the second unit got to 10 power-play points in 2022-23. It should ensure players like Morgan Frost and Joel Farabee get those secondary minutes, though.

At first glance, it appeared to be a lateral move for Hayes as he can still threaten 20 goals and 55 points. However, St. Louis focuses much more on quality of shot than quantity. It could hurt his shot totals and for a guy that has seen declining hit totals over the last couple years, that double whammy could mean a downturn in multi-cat formats.

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Who This Helps

Jakub Vrana

Kasperi Kapanen

Pavel Buchnevich

Who This Hurts

Jake Neighbours

Nathan Walker

Kevin Hayes

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