The exodus from Calgary has begun as there have been a number of rumoured trade requests, cap crunches, or difficulties with contract extensions from the likes of Mikael Backlund, Elias Lindholm, and Tyler Toffoli, to name a few. There has been a lot of upheaval in Calgary that started a year ago with the huge Matthew Tkachuk blockbuster and the ball has started rolling on the 2023 offseason:

Toffoli is turned 31 years old in April and has one year left on his current contract at a $4.25M cap hit. Yegor Sharangovich is a 25-year-old restricted free agent that needs a new deal. Let's get to the breakdown with cap information from Cap Friendly, and data from both Frozen Tools and Natural Stat Trick.

What New Jersey gets

Toffoli is coming off a career-year by goals (34), assists (39), shots (268), and power-play points (25) with a seven-year-high plus/minus at plus-16 and eight-year-high in penalty minutes (28). He finished 42^nd overall in standard Yahoo! leagues and is going to a team that is on a clear upwards trajectory.  

Being able to convert shots into goals was not a big problem for Toffoli early in his career; his first three full seasons saw him shoot 10.2% at 5-on-5, which was solidly a 65^th percentile mark among regular forwards. He shot 5.9% at 5-on-5 over the next three seasons, though, or not far from the bottom of the league. Once he got moving around the league, however, he played with guys like Nick Suzuki, Elias Pettersson, and Andrew Mangiapane and that helped turn his shooting around. A good power play in 2022-23 helped his career year and here we are.

That is the crux to Toffoli: having a good playmaker alongside him that can get him the puck. It sounds simple enough, but modern offenses thrive on transition and playmaking, meaning those things are even more important to Toffoli's upside now than ever.

Going to New Jersey should help a lot in this regard. Tracking data shows Jack Hughes, Jesper Bratt, Timo Meier, and Nico Hischier are all great at creating scoring chances, they love to carry the puck with pace through the neutral zone, and play a lot off the rush. Those are all things that should help Toffoli's offence at even strength, and bodes well for his upside.

Having all that offensive talent to play with at even strength is a double-edged sword because of the power-play implications. There are the four forwards named, plus Toffoli, plus Dawson Mercer, plus Ondrej Palat. Add in a likely roster slot for Alex Holtz and there are likely eight forwards that are in contention for top PP minutes. Hughes, Hischier, and Meier (assuming he's signed) seem like locks, so it leaves one spot between, at least, four different players. In 2022-23, Hughes had 31 PPPs, Bratt had 22, and Hischier landed on 19. No one else had more than 10, and Meier's extrapolation would have him around 19-20 over 82 games. In other words, outside the top PP unit, about 10 PPPs is the most we can expect without a few injuries. If Toffoli doesn't get that top PPTOI, and he's coming off a career-year that saw him with 25 PPPs, well, fantasy owners can do the math.

The best comparison for the PP situation is the 2022-23 Bruins. Their top-3 forwards all produced well with the man advantage, but no one else hit 15 PPPs because they rotated in guys like Jake DeBrusk, David Krejci, Taylor Hall, and Pavel Zacha. That is a good problem for New Jersey, but not great for fantasy owners of the non-Hughes/Hischier/Meier forwards.

Adding Toffoli to the lineup gives them cover for Alex Holtz's rookie season and Tomas Tatar's departure. I do think Holtz slides into the top-6, but I also thought that last year, and he's not a lock to remain in the top-6 for all 82 games. Having players they can move up and down the lineup will help a lot here, and Toffoli is part of that. That cover for New Jersey also gives Holtz another roadblock for meaningful offensive minutes and muddles the upside for guys like Palat and Mercer.

What Calgary gets

Sharangovich had a 24-goal season in 2021-22, the best of his career, and has posted 53 goals and 53 assists in 205 career games. At 5-on-5, he scored 0.8 goals per 60 minutes, or the same marks as Nazem Kadri and Joel Eriksson Ek. His primary points per 60 minutes in that span tied him with Boone Jenner and Artturi Lehkonen, or the rate of a high-end third liner. That isn't great, but it's certainly not nothing. He is also a good penalty killer, which will help the Flames and their goalies.

If all Sharangovich ends up being is a 15-goal scorer who can kill penalties, that's fine for the Flames. However, it's hard to see him getting much more ice time than he did in New Jersey, or with better players; he spent over 50% of his 5-on-5 ice time in New Jersey alongside Jack Hughes. We don't know what Calgary's roster will look like in October, but I feel comfortable saying they won't have a Jack Hughes-calibre player on the roster, offensively speaking, unless Jonathan Huberdeau has a remarkable turnaround. Even then, how much time are Huberdeau and Sharangovich going to spend together?

This doesn't provide a huge impediment for young players like Matt Coronato or Jakob Pelletier. They shouldn't be fighting for the same roles, at any rate. This presumably means consistent top PP minutes for Andrew Mangiapane, but we'll have to see what the rest of their offseason brings.

Who This Helps

Andrew Mangiapane

Nico Hischier

Jacob Markstrom

Jakob Pelletier

Who This Hurts

Dawson Mercer

Elias Lindholm

Tyler Toffoli

Ondrej Palat

Alex Holtz