Fantasy Take: Edmonton Unloads Yamamoto and Kostin to Detroit

Michael Clifford

2023-06-29

Like many teams this offseason, the cap crunch from the COVID seasons was still in effect for the Edmonton Oilers. It meant that they would have to ship out some players to open the space necessary to possibly sign their replacements, but most certainly to extend Evan Bouchard's contract. The casualties ended up being a pair of wingers from last year's team, one of whom has been with the organization throughout the Connor McDavid era:

Kailer Yamamoto had 87 points over his last 191 games for the Oilers. Klim Kostin was acquired last year from St. Louis and had 11 goals in 57 games with a whopping 157 hits.

What Detroit Gets

The rebuild is still ongoing for Detroit after a lackluster 2022-23 season. Outside a few established veteran forwards, there are a slew of players that could be middle-6 options for them including Robby Fabbri, Filip Zadina, Jonatan Berggren, Dominik Kubalik, and Michael Rasmussen. That doesn't include the younger guys like Lucas Raymond, Marco Kasper, and Elmer Soderblom. The additions of Kostin (who is an RFA and needs a contract) and Yamamoto bolsters this even further.

Things just never clicked for Yamamoto. He fought injuries earlier in his career, and missed time in 2022-23, but never reached the next level the team (and I) were hoping he'd reach offensively. To put a finer point on this: he spent over 1524 minutes at 5-on-5 alongside Leon Draisaitl over the last three seasons. In that time, Yamamoto managed 1.46 points/60 minutes. Over the last three seasons, that mark would have ranked worse than Evgeny Svechnikov and Luke Kunin. If you spend the ice-time equivalent of 100 games alongside Leon Draisaitl and can't produce better than Garnet Hathaway, it isn't a good sign of offensive prowess. Since he's not a great defensive forward, it is very fair to ask what, exactly, he brings to the table. He will not get better line mates to produce with than Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl.

Kostin is more of an unknown. He clearly enjoys the physical side of the game but also has a bit of defensive value otherwise. The new Red Winger likes to shoot and the goals have been there at the NHL level: his goals/60 at 5-on-5 for the 103 games spanning parts of four seasons is 0.98. That is, quite literally, the 89th percentile of goal scoring, and higher than names like Pavel Buchnevich, Tyler Toffoli, and Aleksander Barkov. Now, the sample is under 1000 minutes, about one full season, and he did it with one of the highest shooting percentages in the league (17.4%). Had he shot 14.1%, a mark that would still easily be among the NHL's best, his goal-scoring rate drops from 89th percentile to 69th percentile. In other words, it's hard to believe he's this good of a scorer, but small samples cut both ways. If he can play a full season, even 10 goals and 20 points is passable in banger leagues because 82 games would probably see him pass the 200-hit mark.

This does open roster spots in Edmonton but the problem is all the new-found cap space will be going to Evan Bouchard. It may mean Nick Bjugstad returns, but they probably have more roster moves to make to fit him in. It is a very good sign for Dylan Holloway, though. There is (for now) one forward spot left in Edmonton's top-6 and the best player will get it. He has a chance to be their new Yamamoto.

Again, as mentioned earlier, this muddles a lot of the winger picture in Detroit. The additions mean that, including Rasmussen and Soderblom, there are 14 forwards signed for next season and the only players with assured roles are Larkin, Raymond, and Perron. It leaves a lot of battling for the rest of the offensive roles, and it seems clear the team is not going to wait for players like Zadina and Fabbri to hit their upside without giving them competition.

Who This Helps

Dylan Holloway

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Nick Bjugstad

Who This Hurts

Kailer Yamamoto

Robby Fabbri

Filip Zadina

Dominik Kubalik

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