Nashville has had a wild week, trading Ryan Johansen while retaining salary and then buying out Matt Duchene. They were clearing cap space for something and it appears to be a former division rival that is coming to Tennessee to help turn the team around:

It is worth $4.5M a season for each of the four years signed.

What Nashville Gets

It is a wonder how much difference a year can make. At the end of the 2021-22 campaign, Ryan O'Reilly completed his seventh straight season averaging at least 0.74 points per game, or at least 60 points every 82 games. It also saw him finish top-5 in the Selke Trophy voting for the fourth straight season, including one win. Those seven years saw at least 20 goals every campaign for O'Reilly, except the COVID-shortened 2019-20 season.  

Then 2022-23 happened and he had just 19 points in 40 games with St. Louis, fighting injuries along the way. He proceeded to post 11 points in 13 games with Toronto. Those 30 points in 53 games represent his lowest points/game since he was a teenager in Colorado.

As for ROR's point totals this past season in St. Louis, it all came down to his line mates not finishing. The player tracking data from Corey Sznajder has O'Reilly's scoring chance assist rate at 5-on-5 (his assists on teammate scoring chances) in the 87^th percentile and in the range of names like Mark Scheifele and Jeff Skinner. However, the team finished their shots at its lowest rate since he was in Buffalo, and he registered a point on just 59.3% of the even-strength goals scored with him on the ice; his prior three seasons saw him manage a point on 68.3% of the goals. Spending 40% of his even-strength ice time with Josh Leivo, who shot 4.7% at even strength, didn't help.

What also didn't help was the power play. O'Reilly posted exactly two (2) power-play points in 40 games with St. Louis last season. He is not a monster PP producer, but there's a difference between pacing for four PPPs and pacing for 17. We could say he was a factor in the St. Louis PP decline, but then he produced three PPPs in 13 games with Toronto. That is a lot closer to what he usually does over an 82-game sample, so perhaps it was a matter of losing talent like Vladimir Tarasenko (to injury and then a trade) and David Perron (free agent signing), on top of more poor finishing. There has been a small talent exodus in Nashville but is still Filip Forsberg and Roman Josi, so there are pieces of a good power play here.

Whether O'Reilly's skills declines were causing the loss of goals in St. Louis feels like a chicken-and-egg argument, but it really is hard to ignore how well he did in a small sample in Toronto playing with the likes of John Tavares and Mitch Marner. It is that three-week sample that keeps the hope it was just an overall lost year for a lot of St. Louis players, ROR included, which may be why they're re-tooling now. It should make for a fun combo with Filip Forsberg, at any rate.

The last note on his season in St. Louis: he did not spend 120 minutes at even strength with any of Jordan Kyrou (118), Pavel Buchnevich (98), Vladimir Tarasenko (50), or Robert Thomas (21), out of a total of 585.5 minutes. That is very little time spent with the team's top offensive players as he was asked to carry the likes of Leivo and Brandon Saad instead.

Those are the hopes for ROR. It is that he can get more time with top offensive players like Forsberg rather than being stuffed with middle-six options like Leivo in the defensive zone, and that his scoring-chance creation brings a lot more goals with those better players. We will have to see what the Nashville lineup looks like as they continue to re-make the lineup, but one poor (and injured) season is not reason enough to believe that a perennial 60-point player is now a perennial 40-point player.

Considering all the centres the team has eschewed recently, this doesn't overly impact any prospect's chances at a roster spot, though it could mean less prime offensive minutes for Cody Glass or Tommy Novak. ROR should get a lot of minutes and most of them with Forsberg, so there's still a 20-goal, 60-point center that could be had in fantasy this coming season.

Who This Helps

Filip Forsberg

Ryan O'Reilly

Philip Tomasino

Who This Hurts

Cody Glass

Tommy Novak