Pittsburgh trading for Reilly Smith officially signaled that they would not be re-signing Jason Zucker. He had been a good player for Pittsburgh but missed 63 games over the last three seasons, or nearly 30% of the available contests. Those three seasons also saw him post a lower points/minute rate at 5-on-5 than teammates Danton Heinen and Kasperi Kapanen. Put that all together, and we have a UFA that has moved on to a new team:  

Zucker finished his Pittsburgh tenure with 50 goals, 95 points, 402 shots, and 350 hits in 172 games. His 22-23 campaign alone saw 27 goals, 197 shots, and 197 hits.

The Californian winger has long been a balanced attacker. Back in Minnesota, there was tracking data that showed he loved to shoot, had good playmaking, and stellar transition abilities. That trend continued in Pittsburgh but to a lesser degree, and it seems as if age-related decline was starting to catch up. He still managed those 27 goals in 2022-23, but he did it with his second-highest 5-on-5 shot rate and third-highest shooting percentage of his career. If he can replicate that with his new team, the goals will come, but he also spent 75% of his 2022-23 ice time with Evgeni Malkin. That is a hard centre to replace, line mate-wise, in Arizona. He could play well with Clayton Keller but it's a matter of how they slot their players. If he's not with Keller, there is reason to be concerned about repeating his 2022-23 output.

One thing that could help Zucker a lot is a consistent power play role. He had just 18 power-play points in 172 games with the Penguins, or fewer than nine per 82-game season. If he can earn consistent top PP minutes, and be closer to 18 PPPs for a season than 8-9, that is a huge, huge difference in his outlook. It is a bridge to cross once we get there, but it is an easy way to mitigate some further age-related decline.

This doesn't change a whole lot for Pittsburgh. It is basically just sliding Smith into Zucker's spot and moving along. Their prospect forwards have the same impediments they always had, though the actual quality of their prospects is a fair question.

Being a left winger, a spot Keller can play, means they could be on different lines (bad for Zucker) and will lock up their top-6 wing slots at least through the All-Star Game. That probably isn't good for Lawson Crouse or Dylan Guenther. They have Zucker, Keller, Maccelli, and Nick Schmaltz (if they leave him on the wing) in the top-6 now. Crouse could easily be stuck on the third line for half the season and Guenther’s role is unassured.

Zucker has long been a shooter and he easily maintained a first-line shot rate through his Penguins run. As long as he keeps shooting and hitting anywhere close to the level he has the last few years, he'll still be valuable in fantasy. A lot will just depend on his power-play role and if the second line can generate offence.  

Who this helps

Mattias Maccelli

Travis Boyd

Jack McBain

Who this hurts

Lawson Crouse

Dylan Guenther