Ramblings: Day 2 Frenzy Thoughts, Ranking the Draft, and More … (July 03)

Dobber

2023-07-03

The Prospects Report was released June 1. Updated last Friday. You can order all of the 2023-24 fantasy products in the shop here (or subscribe!).

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And ground has now been broken on the 18th annual Fantasy Guide.

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In case you missed it, I covered Ian for the Ramblings yesterday and had lots of great feedback for my 'rants'. You can catch up on that here.

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My plan is still to do a fantasy hockey analysis on the Jonathan Drouin signing (Colorado) and the Gustav Nyquist signing (Nashville), but in case I don't get to them, I'll give you the quick take:

Drouin is a bit of a long shot, but if a team is going to work with him and help him get on track, it's Colorado. This organization helped Valeri Nichushkin become a star, and I don't think many other teams would have had the same patience. With Gabriel Landeskog out for the season and Nichushkin having trouble staying healthy, there is a chance that Drouin gets some pretty good opportunities. But Drouin, himself, is more of an injury risk (and a risk for personal time off) than any of them. So first priority for him is to stay healthy both physically and mentally. But his 82-game pace has been between 41 points and 54 points for six straight seasons. Consistent. So Drouin is a safe pick for that production pace. Where his dark horse status comes into play is his health. If he can stay healthy, he'll get looks with the big guns.

Nyquist's numbers slipped a little last season because he returned from a long-term injury. Always give a Mulligan for the first 20 games or so back from a lengthy injury. Nyquist is usually very durable and is a pretty safe pick for 50 points, give or take. His presence impacts Luke Evangelista's odds of making the team out of training camp.

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And now a couple of signings of older prospects that interest me: Lias Andersson and Matt Phillips.

Andersson is interesting because of his career path. He was drafted very high (seventh overall in 2017). I remember in 2018, when Sweden had to settle for silver, Andersson arrogantly tossed it into the crowd. And in camp that fall, he pretty much insisted that he belonged on the Rangers. He played 42 unimpressive games and ended up spending half the season in the AHL. The Rangers gave him plenty of chances, but he just couldn't cut it. If he just let the team develop him the way they should have, perhaps his path would have been different. The Rangers traded him to Los Angeles and the Kings gave him plenty of chances – but it never amounted to anything. All told, Andersson has played 110 NHL games and managed just 17 points.

Last year, Andersson finally played a full AHL season. Something he should have done five years ago. He impressed with 59 points in 67 games. Now he joins the Habs and again it looks like he's playing ball, agreeing to a two-year contract. He's 24 years old I think if given a chance, he might finally produce at the NHL level. He has to rely on a couple of injuries in order to get a spot, but this team had no shortage of injuries in 2022-23. If those happen again, Andersson will get plenty of shots at redemption.

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Phillips is a player I've always liked. Your typical Dobber Darling – small (5-7) and skilled. A former 112-point player in the WHL. He has 144 points in his last 131 AHL games. He's 25 years old now and just past your typical 'prospect who gets a chance' window. But he's at that prime age for smaller players who adapt to the pro game. Last year, he had the misfortune of being at the mercy of having his fate decided by Darryl Sutter, a coach who leans towards size and experience. He has an opportunity to make an impact in the NHL this year. The Caps are littered with players who get hurt all the time – Anthony Mantha, Tom Wilson, TJ Oshie are always hurt, and Max Pacioretty and Nicklas Backstrom are also a re-injury risk. He'll have his moment – he just needs to kick the door down when he gets it.

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The Lightning traded Patrick Maroon and a depth prospect to the Wild, shedding what amounts to NHL-minimum salary from their cap, since they retained $200,000. No fantasy impact other than the fact that this may prevent Adam Beckman from making the team (he probably wasn't anyway, but it would have been close).

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Finally, I can talk about the draft. Over 5000 words later, between yesterday's Ramblings and all the Fantasy Impacts I've written over the past day and a half.

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Biggest Shocker: Adam Fantilli falling to third overall. I was so very certain that he was going second, I even wrote an entire Ramblings about what to do about it, and which Ducks he would impact.

Runner-up: Zach Benson slipping all the way to 13th. The Sabres are a team loaded with offense and upside. Both on the NHL roster and in the pipeline. And now they add another potential star for down the road? An embarrassment of riches.

Who makes the team this year? Connor Bedard will make Chicago (Duh), Leo Carlsson has signed in Sweden this year and next, but will get a long look in training camp and if he makes the team he can stay. I think he can make the team, but I'll put it at 60/40 for now. Adam Fantilli will almost certainly make Columbus.

Will Smith (San Jose) has committed to Boston College. Matvei Michkov (Philadelphia) will be in the KHL for the next three seasons.

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First – The winner in the draft was obviously Chicago. They could have drafted Connor Bedard and 10 hot dog vendors and they'd still come out of Nashville as the winners. But I also really like their Oliver Moore pick. He's one of the fastest in his draft class, if not the fastest, and is a potential first-line center, though obviously not ahead of Bedard. This will be quite the one-two punch. The Blackhawks got Moore at 19, and we had him rated sixth in the Fantasy Prospects Report. They went a little high on grabbing goaltender Adam Gajan at 35, but goalies at this age have a huge range of potential. They went off the board with a few of their picks, but since they picked 11 times – why not? But in the third round, they grabbed Nick Lardis at 67, and we had him as an early second rounder.

Second – I'm giving this to Columbus. Fantilli is this year's Jack Eichel, except healthier. Instant impact. I'm thinking more than 60 points right away, and yes I know I'm sticking my neck out. But then the Jackets grab Gavin Brindley, a top-20 prospect who was still available at 34! Just because he's only 5-9, teams pass on him and they'll come to regret it. And then, William Whitelaw – we had him as a late first-rounder/early second. The Jackets got him in the third round at 66th overall. He's a long ways away, as is Brindley, but between the two of them I can almost guarantee that one will pan out as a second-line forward in four or five years. Other draft picks – Luca Pinelli we had as a second rounder, they grabbed him in the fourth, and Andrew Strathmann was selected 98th when we had him as a top-70 pick. Even the last pick of the entire draft, Tyler Peddle, was a nice snag. We had him ranked in our top 70 as well. Columbus easily takes second place.

Third – I had trouble deciding which team did better – Washington or Philadelphia. I'm going to give it to Philadelphia, but I'm going to give out a fourth-place note because the Caps deserve some love. Philly takes it because they got the better player. Matvei Michkov could be the Kirill Kaprizov of the draft. Yes, we have to wait a few years, but it will be worth it. We had him rated third, and he was taken seventh. The really reached on Oliver Bonk at No.22 – they could have traded that pick and dropped 10 spots and still gotten him. The Flyers grabbed two goalies in the top 90, which filled a desperate need. They also did very well in getting wingers Denver Barkey and Alex Ciernik at 95 and 120. We had those two both ranked in our top 40! In particular, I like Ciernik's upside and can see him being a big name in fantasy down the road.

Fourth – Washington only had six picks. They also have one of the worst prospect pipelines in the league, if not the worst. They came out of it with three of their six picks very highly rated by the DobberProspects scouts. Winger Ryan Leonard was taken eighth, and he was a consensus top-12 pick by pretty much all experts. We could see him in a Washington uniform as early as one or two years. Andrew Cristall is a winger we actually had rated just above Leonard – and they got him at 40! We thought, in our Mock, that the Leafs would take him at 38. Defenseman Cameron Allen we had rated in the second round and the Caps got him 136th. Their last two picks were in the seventh round and are long shots – but that's what's left in the seventh round.

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The worst draft? Arizona Coyotes. Twelve draft picks. Twelve. They did okay when they took Dmitriy Simashev at six (we had him rated eighth). Danil But was taken 12th and we had him…48th. Regardless if the team likes him and doesn't want to risk losing him. Regardless if the team has him rated high and doesn't care what the independent lists say. Regardless! You have to be aware of what the other lists are saying. You have to know that a player is ranked much lower by other sources. So you trade your pick down and still get him – but you turn it into an extra asset! No excuse for this. Next pick was 38th overall and they took goalie Michael Hrabal. I won't criticize goalies being drafted, as they are wildcards, but for what it's worth – we had him rated around there anyway. None of Arizona's other picks stand out, and overall we had five of their picks in our Top 120.

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See you next Monday.

2 Comments

  1. jordan 2023-07-03 at 06:19

    RE: Asset Mismanagement…..In the cap era, the habs did even worse by passing of MM. Think about it. Dobber you spend all this time talking about GMs playing cap games to save 500k here 1mm there…The habs could have had Michkov come over in 3 years, entering his prime, and on a rookie contract. Most stars coming off rookie contracts are getting 8mm per year. So thats 7mm in savings they could put to bringing in a UFA! This hasnt been spoken about enough, most people highlight the risk of MMs 3 year KHL contract, but in a cap world its actually an asset.

    • audiopile 2023-07-03 at 15:33

      in a year where there are several options, im not going to be the one who picks risk in the top 5. I totally get your point, and ive heard it before, but there is a world where MM never sees NHL ice.

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