Top 10 UFA Signings That Should Exceed Expectations

Tom Collins

2023-07-03

Even though many teams regret their free-agent signings less than a year later, there are a few moves that are great for fantasy hockey general managers.

We all want to believe a player we have in a fantasy keeper league that has signed with a new team will excel; we twist all logic to try and justify the signings. A top power-play defenseman going to a high-scoring team with already a top power-play defenseman is a step up because there’s enough offense to go around, but a top power-play defenseman going to a bottom power-play team is also a step up because that defenseman will get plenty of ice time with little competition.

Some moves don’t need as much twisting, especially in cap leagues. Anyone signing for cheaper is going to help. But even those who don’t participate in cap leagues won’t have to look far to see how some players could see an improvement this upcoming season with a new squad.

Below are the top 10 UFA players that signed over the weekend that could see a production uptick this season with their new squad.

10. Lias Andersson

It was only five years ago that Andersson threw his world juniors silver medal into the stands. At the time, people were split on what it meant: some thought it was disrespectful, while others thought it would show how competitive he was and would only settle for the championship. Well, whatever your opinion, he has struggled in the NHL, with a career high of six points so far. So why the optimism for the NHL? To start, Montreal head coach Marty St. Louis is great at getting the most out of his young players. There’s also the fact that Andersson should have plenty of confidence after this past year in the AHL. His stat line with the Ontario Reign: 67 games, 31 goals, 59 points, 203 shots, 15 power-play goals and 28 power-play points. He led the Reign in goals, power-play goals and shots, and was second in points and power-play points. He followed that up with two goals and three points in two playoff games. He won’t be a high pick, but the 24-year-old could be worth a gamble in a deep fantasy league.

9. Alex Nedeljkovic

The 27-year-old was once the can’t-miss next great goaltender of the fantasy world. Then he went to a rebuilding Detroit team and missed pretty wide. He spent much of this past season in the AHL, and his overall numbers don’t look that great. However, he was excellent after he was called back up at the end of March. Now he’s going to a much-better squad where he’ll be a consistent backup and should dress for a minimum of 25-30 games. There’s also the chance that Tristan Jarry is injured again this upcoming season, which would get Nedeljkovic more games. If you draft Jarry in a one-year league, you would be wise to grab Nedeljkovic as a handcuff.

8. Kailer Yamamoto

Yamamoto may be the only NHLer who could play consistently with Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl and not be able to produce. After a hot start to his fantasy career when he had 26 points in 27 games, things sputtered for Yamamoto. So why would Seattle be different, considering they don’t have a McDavid or a Draisaitl? For starters, Seattle is great at getting the most out of their players. Eeli Tolvanen had 16 goals and 27 points in 48 games with the Kraken (both career highs). Adam Larsson had a career-high 33 points. Justin Schultz reached the 30-point mark for the first time since 2016-17. Jordan Eberle cleared 60 points for the first time since 2014-15. Vince Dunn hit 64 points while Jared McCann reached 70. Yamamoto may get the same treatment and could see a fantasy rebound.

7. Jonathan Drouin

It should be apparent now that the Drouin experiment did not work out in Montreal. So far, his best year was his last year in Tampa in 2016-17 when he potted his only 20-goal season and had a career high in ice time, points, shots per game and power-play time. Now there’s a chance he’ll be in a top-six role in Colorado, and he should see an uptick from the sub-15 minutes-a-night he averaged last year. It might also be a good thing to get away from the pressure of being a Quebec-born player playing with the Montreal Canadiens. A possible reuniting with his former junior mate in Nathan MacKinnon, where they dominated the QMJHL, is also salivating.

6. Mackenzie Blackwood

San Jose is not a good team, and Blackwood isn’t known for being a great goalie, but depending on your league categories, he may do more good than harm when he suits up for the Sharks this fall. Bad teams tend to give up a lot of shots, and any netminder that plays a lot of games for poor teams will pick up plenty of saves. Last season, John Gibson, Jordan Binnington, Carter Hart and Karel Vejmelka were all in the top 12 in saves (Anaheim, Columbus, Arizona, Chicago and Montreal were the five worst teams in shots allowed per game). If Blackwood starts 55-60 games, he may reach the 25-win plateau, which would have been 15th in the league this past season. As basic Yahoo leagues count wins, saves and goals against average, this would make Blackwood a little more valuable, as long as you don’t mind punting the goals against average category.

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5. Matt Duchene

If I were Duchene, I would keep signing one-year deals; after all, he seems to have the most success in contract years. Last season wasn’t too bad for him, as he finished with 56 points in 71 games, a 65-point pace. Although it’s not unusual to see the extreme sides from Duchene, as he seems just as likely to put up a 90-point pace as he is a 31-point pace. There’s still the chance he is also on the third line, behind Roope Hintz and Tyler Seguin (and potentially Wyatt Johnston), but there’s also the chance he gets the opportunity to play with elite players that he hasn’t been able to for years.

4. Connor Brown

Brown was already a bit of a sneaky pick to produce offensively wherever he was going to go. In each of the three seasons from 2019-20 to 2021-22, Brown had a 50-point pace. He never hit 50 points as two of the seasons were shortened due to Covid and one year he was injured. He was brought into Washington last year to play with Alexander Ovechkin, and was pointless in four games before missing the rest of the season after ACL surgery. Now, there’s a chance he’ll play a top-six role with the two greatest offensive forwards in the league. Usually, I shy away from players who are the sexy pick to play with elite players as you never know if they will stick on that line. We just saw what Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl can do for anyone not named Yamamoto; now it could be Brown’s turn.

3. Max Pacioretty

Pacioretty’s never hit the 40-goal mark, and I hoped he would sign somewhere with an elite playmaker to get him to that achievement. Instead, he signed in Washington, where Alexander Ovechkin is making a bid to reach 900 goals within the next two seasons. This means you can expect fewer shots per game for Pacioretty, especially on the power play as everyone will be sending the puck to Ovi. However, Pacioretty is always a threat to score, and could be in line for his seventh 30-goal season. Expect Pacioretty’s assist mark to be significantly higher than his goals total for the first time in his career and a potential threat for 70 points if he can stay healthy.

2. Cam Talbot

Talbot finally had the opportunity to be a number-one netminder in Ottawa last year, but struggled with injuries, missing all of October and coming back for a great November. After he struggled the rest of the season with both injuries and on the ice, it was less likely anyone would to take a chance on Talbot being a number one this offseason. His best option was to go to a team where he’ll be a 1b. L.A. has struggled with goalies the last few years, and while Pheonix Copley was great last season, he’s a 31-year-old who has 68 total career games. The Kings chose to instead rely on Joonas Korpisalo in the postseason, suggesting the team doesn’t 100 per cent believe in Copley. If Talbot can get off to a hot start again, or if Copley struggles at all, Talbot could be the 1a option pretty quickly.

1. Blake Wheeler

I have Wheeler in a dynasty cap league, and he has been on my trade block for more than a year. In a 24-GM, keep-30 league, all I was looking for was a second-round pick. No one was interested, but within minutes of Wheeler signing for $800,000 on Saturday, I received two offers. Wheeler is coming off a down year in almost every fantasy-related category, but he still notched 55 points in 72 games, a 63-point pace. It was a tale of two halves for Wheeler. In his first 29 games, he had 26 points while averaging 17:50 per game and playing with Mark Scheifele and Pierre-Luc Dubois. He then missed the next two weeks of action, and for the rest of the campaign, he had 29 points in 43 games while averaging 16:31 per night while playing with Nikolaj Ehlers. He may play on the third line with the Rangers, but chances are he will be slotted somewhere on the top two lines and potentially the top power-play unit. I like his chances for a bounce-back season.

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