While Alex Mclean and others have their predicted salaries and terms for what free agents might sign for, I wanted to come up with a performative salary number for an individual or a team's salary value that they had for a particular time frame. The idea was to see if the salary or cap that the player earned was higher or lower than how they performed. 

Just a reminder that the phrase 'replacement level' shouldn't be reserved for below average NHL players, it is the level at the bottom between NHL and the AHL (as an example).

Replacement-level players are the tweeners between the two leagues, the guys who struggle to get more than 1 to 20 NHL games annually.

There are hundreds of NHL players who are below average but still solid NHL players. Over 950 skaters and 105 goalies played at least a game in 2022-2023.

The average salary cap hit for 2022-2023 was:

$3.227 million – Forwards

$3.106 million – Defense

$3.324 million – Goalies

With the average salary info for players, I just needed to know what determines an average player. As luck would have it, I've been doing Player Game Ratings for a while now and can find out what an average player rating is (in my opinion at least). With a base rating and a base salary, I was able to make a formula which I think gives a fair salary value (xSalary).

I cut off any skater who didn't play 20 NHL games and any goalie who didn't play 15 games as their results can be skewed. This left me with 464 forwards, 236 defenders and 71 goalies.  

The average player rating for 2022-2023 was:

6.474 – Forwards

6.429 – Defense

6.423 – Goalies

With an average salary and an average player rating, I could create a formula to determine a baseline xSalary for 700 skaters and 71 goalies for the 2022-2023 season.

I'm going to go through each team in the West and look at significant free agents who were signed in 2022 or 2023 and compare how they did in 2022-2023 with what I will call xSalary or value.

Anaheim Ducks

Added in free agency 2022:

Frank Vatrano – 3 years at $3.65 million AAV; Vatrano came in at $4.2 million in value for 2022-2023. He's a slightly above average player who is paid slightly above average.

Ryan Strome – 5 years at $5 million AAV; Strome had a value of $1.4 million and will need to improve in years two to five.

John Klingberg – 1 year at $7 million AAV; Klingberg came in at just under $3.4 million, so $4.15 million for one year in Toronto might be a decent deal.

2023:

Radko Gudas – 3 years at $4 million AAV; The formula had Gudas at just over $5 million but it will be interesting to see what Gudas can do in Anaheim as compared to Florida. Players like Gudas are the most difficult to valuate in my opinion. 

Alex Killorn – 4 years at $6.25 million AAV; His value was $4.2 million which was almost on par with his actual salary of $4.45 million. He'll be hard pressed to live up to $6.25 million.

Arizona Coyotes

2022:

Nick Bjugstad – 1 year at $900k; $3.3 million xSalary saw the Coyotes get very good value for Bjugstad and they were able to trade him to Edmonton for essentially a 3rd round draft pick.

Lawson Crouse – 5 years at $4.3 million AAV; Crouse was spot on with a $4.3 million value.

Barrett Hayton – 2 years at $1.775 million AAV; Hayton came in at $3.8 million and should only get better.

2023:

Connor Ingram – 3 years at $1.95 million AAV; Ingram came in at $2.5 million in value but he only played 27 games.

Nick Bjugstad – 2 years at $2.1 million AAV; $3.3 million in value.

Alex Kerfoot – 2 years at $3.5 million AAV; I had Kerfoot at around $1.4 million value in 2022-2023. Unless he produces more in Arizona, the new contract is not good value.

Jason Zucker – 1 year at $5.3 million AAV; I had Zucker at $4.9 million, but he's not going to have the scoring support that he had in Pittsburgh. Fortunately, it is just for one year and they should be able to trade him near the deadline.

Calgary Flames

2022:

Nikita Zadorov – 2 years at $3.75 million AAV;  I had Zadorov come in at $2.2 million for 2022-2023 and I'm not sure he can do much more in 2023-2024.

Andrew Mangiapane – 3 years at $5.8 million AAV; His value was $3.1 million, so his production was a disappointment and he will need to be better.

Jonathan Huberdeau – 8 years at $10.5 million AAV; I had Huberdeau at just over $3.0 million in 2022-2023. This contract has the potential to be disastrous, but I think he will be much better in 2023-2024.

Nazem Kadri – 7 years at $7 million AAV; I had Kadri at $6.4 million, and this is an example of a player being decent but not quite measuring up to what his salary is.

MacKenzie Weegar – 8 years at $6.25 million AAV; I had Weegar at $5.2 million and I think he can be better, but Calgary needs him to be.

Daniel Vladar – 2 years at $2.2 million AAV; Vladar had a value of $943k for 27 games he played.

2023:

Yegor Sharangovich – 2 years at $3.1 million AAV; I had him at $1.2 million for his 2022-2023 production, but the Flames hope he is a rising star. I'm pretty high on him as well, but I'm not convinced he is a sure thing.

Chicago Blackhawks

2022:

Max Domi – 1 year at $3 million; Domi had a decent 2022-2023 and came in at just under $4.3 million. Chicago was also able to get a 2nd round pick from Dallas when they traded Domi. He ended up signing with Toronto for one year at $3 million.

Andreas Athanasiou – 1 year at $3 million; Even with 20 goals and 20 assists, xSalary had Athanasiou at $2.3 million. 

2023:

Andreas Athanasiou – 2 years at $4.25 million AAV; the $2.3 million from 2022-2023 doesn't bode well for the contract he just signed but if he can duplicate his production it's not that bad.

Nick Foligno – 1 year at $4 million; I had Foligno at just over $2.0 million for 2022-2023.

Corey Perry – 1 year at $4 million; Obviously Perry adds more than his production and stats, but I had him at $750k which is the league minimum. $4 million in salary is an irresponsible number.

Ryan Donato – 2 years at $2 million AAV; The formula had him at just under $1.3 million for 2022-2023.

Colorado Avalanche

2022:

Alexandar Georgiev – 3 years at $3.4 million AAV; The formula had Georgiev just under $6.0 million for his 40 wins in 62 games last year. Can he repeat?

Valeri Nichushkin – 8 years at $6.125 million AAV; Nichushkin only managed to play 53 games and had a value of $4.85 million but the formula had him at $7.5 million if he had played 82 games.

Josh Manson – 4 years at $4.5 million AAV; He only managed 27 games because of injury and ended up with a value of $1.6 million for those games which would have been $4.8 million for 82.

Artturi Lehkonen – 5 years at $4.5 million AAV; A few eyebrows were raised with this contract, but Lehkonen was valued for just under $5.9 million in 2022-2023.

Evan Rodrigues – 1 year at $2 million; This was a very good signing for the Avalanche as Rodrigues provided a value of just under $4.1 million in 2022-2023.

Nathan MacKinnon – 8 years at $12.6 million; This contract starts in 2023-2024 and will make MacKinnon the highest paid player in the NHL. The formula says he is still underpaid as it had him at $16.4 million in 2022-2023.

2023:

Miles Wood – 6 years at $2.5 million AAV; Wood was valued at $1.8 million for his 2022-2023 production. It's a bit of an overpayment and the term is a bit steep.

Bowen Byram – 2 years at $3.85 million AAV; Byram played in just 42 games which his value for those games was $2.8 million and $5.5 million if he had played 82 games.

Jonathan Drouin – 1 year at $825k; He played in 58 games with Montreal and ironically the formula had him at $823k for 82 games.

Dallas Stars

2022:

Colin Miller – 2 years at $1.85 million AAV; Miller came in at just over $1.4 million in 2022-2023.

Mason Marchment – 4 years at $4.5 million AAV; His value was $2.8 million in 2022-2023.

Jake Oettinger – 3 years at $4 million AAV; His value was around $5.8 million for a year where he had 37 wins in 62 games.

Jason Robertson – 4 years at $7.7 million AAV; He had a great year and his value was $11.3 million for 46 goals and 63 assists.

Roope Hintz – 8 years at $8.45 million AAV; Hintz value was just under $8.1 million so his new contract might be a tad long, but he should be good value for it in the short-term.

2023:

Joe Pavelski – 1 year at $5.5 million; Can Pavelski have another year of value at $7.7 million at his age? I mistakenly wrote him off three years ago, so who am I to say no?

Evgeni Dadonov – 2 years at $2.25 million AAV; This is a bit of an overpay as I had his value at around $1.2 million for what he produced in 2022-2023 and I don't think he's getting better.

Matt Duchene – 1 year at $3 million; Duchene is the type of player that inspired me to do this exercise. He clearly wasn't worth what he was making before being bought out but what was he worth? In 2022-2023 I had him at $5.1 million, so Dallas might get great value in 2023-2024.

Edmonton Oilers

2022:

Evander Kane – 4 years at $5.125 million AAV; He had a value of $7.1 million in 2022-2023 for 82 games but he played in just 41 so had a final value of $3.55 million.

Brett Kulak – 4 years at $2.75 million AAV; Kulak came in with a value of $1.8 million.

Jack Campbell – 5 years at $5 million AAV; His value was the league minimum at $750k.

Kailer Yamamoto – 2 years at $3.1 million AAV; His value was $1.9 million and he was dealt to Detroit who bought him out. He signed with Seattle for $1.5 million for one year.

2023:

Stuart Skinner – 3 years at $2.6 million AAV; He had great value at $5.1 million. Between the Skinner and Campbell, they kind of offset the value for each and came out even.

Connor Brown – 1 year at $775k to $4 million; He didn't qualify for my formula as he didn't play enough games. Hence, his contract with Edmonton that could pay him anywhere from $775k to $4 million in 2023-2024 is probably fair.

Los Angeles Kings

2022:

Adrian Kempe – 4 years at $5.5 million AAV; his value was $6.9 million and this is looking like a very good contract for its duration.

Carl Grundstrom – 2 years at $1.3 million AAV; He came in right at $1.3 for a full season but he played 57 games so his final value was $900k.

2023:

Trevor Moore – 4 years at $4.2 million AAV; Moore played 59 games and was valued at $2.6 million for his production. If he can maintain this production for 82 games, his value is $3.6 million.

Phoenix Copley – 1 year at $1.5 million; His value for 24 wins in 37 games was $2.3 million as he was slightly below average in spite of his winning percentage.

Mikey Anderson – 8 years at $4.125 million AAV; His value should only increase and was just under $3.0 million for 2022-2023. If healthy this contract could age well.

Vladislav Gavrikov – 2 years at $5.875 million AAV; My formula is not a fan of Gavrikov as it had him at $1.9 million. If he played like he did in his short stint with the Kings he could be full value for this, but I'm not sure he can do that.

Cam Talbot – 1 year at $2 million; Talbot played 36 games in Ottawa and won 17 times. His value was just under $1.6 million so he should be good at this price point for the Kings as he is capable of exceeding it.

If anyone is interested in the full list click here or message me for any players you might be curious about.

Part 2 will be posted here on Thursday, so be sure to check back in.

The next step for me is to do this historically so that I can look at past contracts and calculate an overall value for the players and the teams and see how teams have managed their cap space.

Thanks very much for reading and if you have any comments or suggestions, please leave them below or follow me on Twitter @gampbler15