Montreal has signed David Reinbacher, its fifth overall pick from this past Draft, to his three-year entry-level contract. This does not necessarily mean that he will be in the lineup for the 2023-24 season, of course, but it is nice to get that contract done and not have it something to worry about down the road.

In a Ramblings last week, I already discussed my issues with the pick so there's no need to re-hash all that. What's done is done and now Habs fans can only hope that the young blue liner reaches his full potential, and should root for him to do so at every step. Sending threats and insults his way is the internet's way of doing things, but it's still disheartening. Nothing but the best for the young man as he embarks on his journey to the NHL.

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There are going to be a lot of articles and Ramblings covering free agency, and the surrounding trades. This one will be no different! Any period with so many transactions should have a lot of coverage. Don't forget to check out the individual breakdowns from myself, Ian, and Dobber from Free Agent Frenzy itself.

I want to go over some signings or trades that I think could have a good amount of fantasy impact this coming season, positive or negative, outside of obvious names like Tyler Bertuzzi or Dmitry Orlov. As always data from our Frozen Tools or Natural Stat Trick, unless otherwise indicated, with cap information from Cap Friendly.

Blake Wheeler

There was no shortage of "he's not the same player he was, BUT" proclamations about Wheeler when the Rangers signed him for $800K plus performance bonuses. That doesn't really tell us what the decline has been.

Wheeler has certainly slowed, and that can be a problem for a guy who is turning 37 years old and has been known as a speedy winger. He can still explode in small bursts, but the ability to sustain is not there anymore.

With that said, just because he can't play fast with his feet doesn't mean he can't play quick with his hands. He won't succeed playing dump-and-chase hockey, but he will provide very good playmaking in the offensive zone. Tracking data has Wheeler with a similar rate of assists on teammate scoring chances to some very notable offensive performers:

He can't be the guy carrying the puck through the neutral zone – that will have to be guys like Mika Zibanejad, Artemi Panarin, or Filip Chytil – but he can help them score once they cross the blue line. That also goes for the power play, which took a step back in 2022-23 and might include Wheeler at some point during the season.

The concern for Wheeler is a loss in ice time. New York has open spots on the right side, but I'd say unless the 37-year-old Minnesota native turns back the clock five years, he should not be playing more than 16 minutes a night.

Erik Gustafsson

Gustafsson has a reputation of being awful defensively, which has kept him living out of a suitcase as he moves from team to team every year (or more than once a year), but what if he's not? Evolving Hockey has him above average by expected goals against impact over the last three seasons spanning five (!) teams. It has led to better-than-average goals against rates, so it's not just expected goals, but actual goals are going in at a rate beneficial to his team with him on the ice for years now. That was no different last season in Toronto and Washington.

Here are some stats from the tracking data by Corey Sznajder from the 2022-23 season:

• Teams created scoring chances off entries against Gustafsson at a rate (2.81/60 minutes) similar to Dmitry Orlov (2.82) and Scott Mayfield (2.83). Those guys both signed multi-year deals with AAVs that are magnitudes higher than Gustafsson.
• Gustafsson led all Washington defencemen in denying controlled zone entries at 10.7%, similar to names like Sam Girard (10.4%) and Noah Hanifin (11%).
• Gustafsson cleared the defensive zone, with control, at a rate (7.2/60 minutes) similar to Torey Krug (6.9) and Vince Dunn (7.0).

It isn't to say Gustafsson is solely responsible for doing all that; defence is a team effort. He was worse the year before in Chicago, but it's hard not to notice that Gustafsson improved under Peter Laviolette in Washington, and now gets Laviolette back in New York.

Barring an injury to Adam Fox, Gustafsson won't get top PP minutes, but could he get secondary minutes? I think so. It's just a matter of getting back to 19-20 minutes rather than 15-16 minutes, and that's where the fantasy problem lay. If Gustafsson gets 15 minutes of EVTOI each night, and about a minute of PPTOI, it'll be hard to be relevant in most fantasy formats.

Shayne Gostisbehere

There isn't much need to run long here as I have long been a fan of Gostisbehere both during and after his tenure with the Flyers. He isn't a guy to play 24 minutes a night on the top pair, but he's shown the ability to at least play number-4/5 minutes competently, and he can run a power play.

Last year, Detroit had one defenceman play half the season and be above the league average for scoring chance assists (helpers on a teammate's scoring chance) among blue liners, and it was Jake Walman (1.55/60 minutes). The next-closest was Olli Maatta at 1.06. Comparatively, Gostisbehere was in the company of names like Mikhail Sergachev, Charlie McAvoy, and Roman Josi:

The funny part is that is basically the inverse of what Ghost did in 2021-22, when he had more individual scoring chances but fewer assists on teammate scoring chances. Regardless, he was very involved offensively in both seasons at creating 5-on-5 quality.

Ghost's power play ability is very bad news for Moritz Seider fantasy owners. Nearly 40% of Seider's career production has been with the man advantage and if he's a PP2 regular, reaching 40 points again is very much in doubt. He is still tremendous in multi-cat formats, but points formats just took a big hit.

Carson Soucy

Over on my personal blog, I wrote a long piece about Soucy's hockey journey, right up to, and including, the 2023 playoffs, from a statistical perspective. For a long read on how good he is, and what he has left to prove, check that out.

There could be big multi-cat upside for Soucy here. He had 239 hits+blocks in Seattle last season, playing 16:18 a night. What if he plays 19 minutes a night in Vancouver? He could easily crack 300 hits+blocks in a full season. He has also averaged 7 goals and 22 points every 82 games for his career. If an ice-time bump gets him to, say, 6 goals and 21 assists with that level of peripheral performance, there is an excellent multi-cat defenceman here. It is a matter of whether Vancouver moves him to a true second-pair role. They should, considering the only players that should definitely play above him are Quinn Hughes and Filip Hronek, but I've learned not to rely on NHL coaches for my fantasy value.

Michael Bunting

A handful of signings made me say, "yeah that makes a lot of sense," and Bunting to Carolina is at, or near, the top of the list. Though he is a versatile player, the tracking data has him playing a lot more off the forecheck than off the rush in his Toronto tenure. Carolina is a team that plays off the forecheck rather than the rush, so it can fit into Bunting's profile easily.

Presumably, the top-four winger slots will likely go to Bunting, Andrei Svechnikov, Seth Jarvis, and Martin Necas when everyone is healthy (assuming no more player additions). That would push Teuvo Teravainen to a permanent bottom-6 role unless injuries hit. That, in conjunction with secondary PPTOI, should put an end to Teravainen's fantasy value outside of deep leagues in any format.

If Bunting can skate with Sebastian Aho, he is still a 20-goal, 50-point threat. The concern would be if he skated with Jesperi Kotkaniemi. The 23-year-old pivot has good defensive ability but has not turned the corner yet offensively. Maybe Bunting can help him, but there's only one line with a high-end offensive centre in Carolina, and Bunting's production relies on spending as many minutes as possible with him.  

Max Pacioretty

When he returns from his Achilles surgery, Pacioretty will be playing behind Alex Ovechkin. That caps (pun!) his ice time already, so his fantasy value will rely on the power play. Washington should have all their top stars back, but if Pacioretty isn't back until, say, November, there could be injury or underperformance that leads to Patches getting top PPTOI immediately.

The problem is that, in Vegas, Patches often played his off-wing on the power play (from HockeyViz):

That puts him firmly in Nicklas Backstrom's spot. One option would be moving Backstrom to Kuznetsov’s spot, and then Pacioretty’s in Backstrom’s old place. Either way, it is hard to see the team leaving Backstrom off the top PP unit, but we'll find out once the season starts. If Pacioretty is playing on the second line at even strength and second PP unit, he won't have the overall fantasy impact we're hoping for. Fantasy owners will have to take a leap of faith at the draft table or be vigilant on the waiver wire.

Radko Gudas

It should be interesting to see the ice time Gudas gets in Anaheim. He hasn't played 19 minutes a night since the 2016-17 season and averaged 17:40 in three seasons with Florida. The Ducks do have some very good prospect blue liners, and Jamie Drysdale will be healthy, but they lost Simon Benoit, Kevin Shattenkirk, Dmitry Kulikov, and John Klingberg either via free agency or trade. It doesn't leave much on the blue line for guys that can be relied upon night in and night out outside of Gudas and Cam Fowler.

Gudas has shown the ability to be a tremendous multi-cat rearguard even while playing 17-18 minutes. What if he plays 19-20 minutes? He could pass 500 hits+blocks with relative ease, even if he only dresses for 75 games.

Joonas Korpisalo

The big goalie signing of the day was Korpisalo heading to Ottawa. It has been quite some time since the Senators had reliable goaltending and they're now hoping that Korpisalo can be the missing piece they need to finally make a playoff push.

Which Korpisalo shows up is a fair question to ask. The hip injury/surgery from 2021-22 has been well-documented, but it isn't as if the early portions of his career were outstanding. His first five seasons (2015-20) as a backup/1B saw a goals saved above expected per 60 minutes similar to Cam Ward and Jimmy Howard. His high-danger save percentage at 5-on-5 from 2017-20 was in the 35^th percentile of the league. He had a great rookie season and then was roughly average-or-worse for four straight years after. Then the injuries hit, tanking a couple seasons before rebounding in 2022-23. He has played parts of eight seasons and two of them were very good while six were average-or-worse. One of good ones just happened to be the most recent.

If Korpisalo is the guy he was in his rookie season, or in 2022-23, for the majority of this contract, it's a home run. If he's the guy he was from 2016-2022, this is an anchor. Anyone that says they know which goalie is going to show up is misleading, at best. Things could get ugly if he doesn't repeat his 22-23 performance and the Sens remain as undisciplined as they were last season. If he does repeat his 22-23 performance, though, there's tremendous upside in fantasy. Goalies are volatile simply due to their position, but he has true boom/bust value in 2023-24.