For Part 1, click here.

While Alex Mclean and others have their predicted salaries and terms for what free agents might sign for, I wanted to come up with a performative salary number for an individual or a team's salary value that they had for a particular time frame. The idea was to see if the salary or cap that the player earned was higher or lower than how they performed. 

Just a reminder that the phrase 'replacement level' shouldn't be reserved for below average NHL players, it is the level at the bottom between NHL and the AHL (as an example).

Replacement-level players are the tweeners between the two leagues, the guys who struggle to get more than 1 to 20 NHL games annually.

There are hundreds of NHL players who are below average but still solid NHL players. Over 950 skaters and 105 goalies played at least a game in 2022-2023.

The average salary cap hit for 2022-2023 was:

$3.227 million – Forwards

$3.106 million – Defense

$3.324 million – Goalies

With the average salary info for players, I just needed to know what determines an average player. As luck would have it, I've been doing Player Game Ratings for a while now and can find out what an average player rating is (in my opinion at least). With a base rating and a base salary, I was able to make a formula which I think gives a fair salary value (xSalary).

I cut off any skater who didn't play 20 NHL games and any goalie who didn't play 15 games as their results can be skewed. This left me with 464 forwards, 236 defenders and 71 goalies.  

The average player rating for 2022-2023 was:

6.474 – Forwards

6.429 – Defense

6.423 – Goalies

With an average salary and an average player rating, I could create a formula to determine a baseline xSalary for 700 skaters and 71 goalies for the 2022-2023 season.

This is Part 2 of 2 (Part 1 here), finishing off each team in the West and looking at significant free agents who were signed in 2022 or 2023 and compare how they did in 2022-2023 with what I will call xSalary or value.

Minnesota Wild

2022:

Jacob Middleton – 3 years at $2.45 million AAV; In the first year of his contract, Middleton came in with a value of $1.9 million.

Marc-Andre Fleury – 2 years at $3.5 million AAV; Fleury was full value for his salary as his value was just under $3.7 million for his 24 wins in 46 games.

2023:

Matthew Boldy – 7 years at $7 million AAV; His value was around $6.2 million for 2022-2023 which is great for the team when they were only paying him $925k. Reality kicks in now, but he should be fine.

Frederick Gaudreau – 5 years at $2.1 million AAV; He's not a top-six center and isn't paid like one. His value was $2.7 million in 2022-2023.

Marcus Johansson – 2 years at $2 million AAV; His value last year was just over $2.1 million.

Nashville Predators

2022:

Filip Forsberg – 8 years at $8.5 million AAV; I'm not sure Nashville would sign this contract a year later. His value was $4.3 million for 50 games in 2022-2023 but I don't think they would do the term with the roster they have now. If he had played 82 games he would have had a value of $7.0 million all things being the same.

Yakov Trenin – 2 years at $1.75 million AAV; His value for the 2022-2023 campaign was $1.4 million.

2023:

Thomas Novak – 1 year at $800k; What a bargain for the Predators if he can sustain even 70% of his output from 2022-2023. His value for the 51 games he played was $3.0 million. If he can duplicate for 82 games it increases to $4.8 million.

Dante Fabbro – 1 year at $2.5 million; His value was $1.1 million and his time in Nashville might be approaching the end if he doesn't take the next step very soon.

Ryan O'Reilly – 4 years at $4.5 million AAV; His value last season was $3.2 million. This contract is waging that he'll rebound but it is risky.

Luke Schenn – 3 years at $2.75 million AAV; My formula loves Schenn and his value was high at $4.3 million, but even $2.75 million for three years was a lot.

Cody Glass – 2 years at $2.5 million AAV; He took a step in 2022-2023 and was valued at $2.8 million.

Alexandre Carrier – 1 year at $2.5 million AAV; This was a bit of an overpay as his value was $1.2 million for 82 games and he managed just 43.

Gustav Nyquist – 2 years at $3.185 million AAV; This might be a fair value as I had him come in at just under $2.7 million.

San Jose Sharks

2022:

Oskar Lindblom – 2 years at $2.5 million AAV; his value was $750k in 2022-2023.

Nico Sturm – 3 years at $2 million AAV; Sturm was at $1.9 million in year one of three.

Matthew Benning – 4 years at $1.25 million AAV; I thought this was three too many years for Benning, but he played 77 games with the Sharks and had a value of $1.1 million.

Luke Kunin – 2 years at $2.75 million AAV; His value was pretty close at $2.6 million.

Kaapo Kahkonen – 2 years at $2.75 million AAV; His value hit rock bottom at $750k.

Mario Ferraro – 4 years at $3.25 million AAV; The Sharks might regret this contract as Ferraro's value was just $762k in 2022-2023 in 72 games.

2023:

Mackenzie Blackwood – 2 years at $2.35 million AAV; He will look to rebound after putting up a value of $750k in New Jersey. It won't be easy to do in San Jose.

Fabian Zetterlund – 2 years at $1.45 million AAV; He played 67 games split between New Jersey and San Jose with a value of $750k. He is cashing in on untapped potential to get that contract.

Kyle Burroughs – 3 years at $1.1 million AAV; I had Burroughs at $1.6 million for 82 games and he managed 48 with Vancouver which would put him at around $936k AAV. It's a step to go three years for a player who has never been a regular in the NHL. I liked him in Vancouver but he is limited in what he can do.

St. Louis Blues

2022:

Nick Leddy – 4 years at $4 million AAV; I have Leddy at $750k, which seems very bad for his deal. I might be missing something in his game that doesn't translate.

Noel Acciari – 1 year at $1.25 million; He topped out close to $2.6 million for perhaps his strongest season in the NHL to date. It paid off with a three year deal for $2 million AAV in Pittsburgh.

Thomas Greiss – 1 year at $1.5 million; His value for 2022-2023 was $1.3 million.

2023:

Jordan Kyrou – 8 years at $8.125 million AAV; In the last year of his $2.8 million AAV contract, Kyrou had a value of $6.7 million. He'll need to be even better for the next eight years.

Robert Thomas – 8 years at $8.125 million AAV; In the last year of his $2.8 million AAV contract, Thomas faltered a little with a value of $4.8 million if you can count a surplus of $2 million as faltering.

Seattle Kraken

2022:

Andre Burakovsky – 5 years at $5.5 million AAV; He only managed 49 games and finished with a value just under $2.4 million for the games he played and just over $4.0 million for 82. If he can be better, the Kraken have another gear.

Martin Jones – 1 year at $2 million; Even with 27 wins in 48 games, his value is still $750k.

Justin Schultz – 2 years at $3 million AAV; His value was just under $2.4 million for his first year in Seattle.

Morgan Geekie – 1 year at $1.4 million; His value was $1.3 million. He signed with Boston for two years at $2 million AAV.

Ryan Donato – 1 year at $1.2 million; His value was $1.3 million. He signed with Chicago for two years at $2 million AAV.

Daniel Sprong – 1 year at $750k; His value came in around $3.2 million which is based off of 66 games. He's unlikely to duplicate his production but still signed with Detroit for one year at $2 million.

2023:

Brian Dumoulin – 2 years at $3.15 million AAV; Dumoulin had a value of $2.1 million in 2022-2023 which is better than some, but he was making $4.1 million AAV while with Pittsburgh.

Kailer Yamamoto – 1 year at $1.5 million; I had him valued at $1.9 million and this is a deal that 31 NHL teams should have been lining up to sign.

Vancouver Canucks

2022:

Brock Boeser – 3 years at $6.65 million AAV; His value came in at $4.3 million, and he'll need to rebound next year to remain in Vancouver.

Ilya Mikheyev – 4 years at $4.75 million AAV; He played just 47 games and had a value of $1.6 million, but had a value of $2.8 million if healthy for all 82 games. The Canucks are hoping he is recovered and healthy.

Andrei Kuzmenko – 1 year at $1.8 million; His value was $4.3 million for 39 goals and 34 assists in 81 games.

2023:

J.T. Miller – 7 years at $8 million AAV; Miller made $5.25 million in the last year of his contract and had a value of $9.1 million. His new deal kicks in for 2023-2024 and probably won't age well.

Andrei Kuzmenko – 2 years at $5.5 million AAV; His value was $4.3 million and I don't see him improving his production. His deal could go sideways quickly as he coach Rick Tocchet has already had him in the doghouse at times.

Teddy Blueger – 1 year at $1.9 million; This was a bit of a puzzling deal as his value came in at $750k, but to be fair my formula doesn't give credit for the penalty kill, but how much value can we add for that? $1.2 million AAV apparently.

Carson Soucy – 3 years at $3.25 million AAV; I had Soucy's value at $1.2 million. The Canucks aren't scoring well with me in July.

Ian Cole – 1 year at $3.0 million; Cole comes out the best of the free agent class that the Canucks have signed so far with a value of $2.3 million. Unfortunately, they are paying him $3 million.

Tyler Myers/Oliver Ekmann Larsson – The real impetus for trying to find a formula was these two. I've been arguing for awhile that they are both above replacement level. It is closer than I would have thought as Ekmann Larson had a value of $1.8 million and Myers came in at $1.7 million.

 Vegas Golden Knights

2022:

Brett Howden – 1 year at $1.5 million; I had Howden valued at $750k but he had a decent playoff.

Reilly Smith – 3 years at $5 million AAV; Smith had a value of $4.7 million and has been traded to Pittsburgh for the final two years of this contract.

Keegan Kolesar – 3 years at $1.4 million AAV; His value was $750k, but he obviously adds more than his production shows.

Nicolas Roy – 5 years at $3.0 million AAV; His value came in at $2.9 million. I think he will get even better.

Phil Kessel – 1 year at $1.5 million; Kessel ended up with a value of $1.1 million so it was never really a gamble to bring in Kessel at $1.5.

Nicolas Hague – 3 years at $2.3 million AAV; His value in the regular season was $1.9 million and the playoffs just added to it.

2023:

Ivan Barbashev – 5 years at $5 million AAV; His value in the regular season was $3.0 million but the Golden Knights are paying for his playoff performance moving forward.

Adin Hill – 2 years at $4.9 million AAV; I had Logan Thompson valued at $5.2 for 21 wins in 37 games and Hill at $4.9 for 16 wins in 27 games. Hill had a great playoff.

Winnipeg Jets

2022:

Pierre-Luc Dubois – 1 year at $6 million; His value for 2022-2023 was $7.5 million.

Mason Appleton – 3 years at $2.2 million AAV; I had his value at $1.2 million for a full year, and he managed just 41 games. He's probably a little overpaid for what he can produce.

2023:

Pierre-Luc Dubois – 8 years at 8.5 million AAV; The Jets signed Dubois and traded him to Los Angeles. His value of $7.5 million could be enough to justify this contract if he does it for five or six of the eight years.

Vladislav Namestnikov – 2 years at $2 million AAV; I had Namestnikov at $871k in value.

If anyone is interested in the full list click here or message me for any players you might be curious about.

The next step for me is to do this historically so that I can look at past contracts and calculate an overall value for the players and the teams and see how teams have managed their cap space.

Thanks very much for reading and if you have any comments or suggestions, please leave them below or follow me on Twitter @gampbler15