Welcome back to Forum Buzz, where I peruse the DobberHockey Forums and weigh in on active, heavily debated, or otherwise relevant recent threads, reminding folks just how great a resource the Forums are. Nearly anything might be covered here, other than trades and signings, which usually get their own separate write-ups on the main site and are also normally covered in the next day’s Ramblings, or questions that are specific to salary cap issues, which is the domain of the weekly Capped column. To access the specific forum thread on which a question is based, click on the “Topic” for that question.

Topic #1 – How does Gabriel Vilardi project for 2023-24 and 2024-25?

When this question was posed in the Forums, Vilardi was still a King. Of course, now he's a Jet, thanks to being traded there as part of the Pierre-Luc Dubois deal a couple of weeks ago. But I'm going to answer it anyway, since if anything it should be more useful information.

Vilardi, if not the centerpiece of the trade, was certainly a key asset coveted by Winnipeg. After all, Vilardi can play well now if the Jets decide not to blow things up, but also likely won't be peaking for several more seasons due to his size and 400-game breakout threshold, if, instead, Winnipeg opts for a true rebuild.

Being in LA was both a blessing and curse for Vilardi, as the Kings were so balanced that really no player, other than Azne Kopitar, got star treatment. Rather, they rolled three lines, and many forwards received 14-18 minutes of TOI per game. That ensured Vilardi was not lost in the mix; however, after a Q1 when he was a top line staple, it also meant he had a realistic ceiling on how much he could score.

One other benefit of being a King for Vilardi had been that not only was the team deep enough to field two very good PP lines, but their PP1 had among the lowest percentages of PPTOI of any top unit. So that guaranteed Vilardi was not lost in the PP shuffle. Will going to Winnipeg ensure Villardi is on PP1? Put it this way – I'd be shocked if they didn't give him a long look there, even if they are through unloading players. What remains to be seen though is how potent that top unit will be while no longer including – as I write this – the likes of PLD and Blake Wheeler.

As to the specific question, because both this coming season and 2024-25 will occur before Vilardi reaches his 400 game larger frame player breakout threshold, chances are he won't have fully come into his own. But I think there's a good chance he still steps up, as he's already almost 24 years old and played parts of four seasons. That's a big difference from someone a couple of years young or who, at 24, has perhaps a similar number of games under his belt but only spread among two seasons. In short, I believe that Vilardi's age and breadth of experience, even if it does only amount to 152 total games, will have primed him to hit the ground running in Winnipeg, with ~55 points this season and a better chance than not to post 60+ in 2024-25.

Topic #2 – What should we expect from Devon Levi for 2022-23?

I can see why there's excitement surrounding Levi, as Buffalo is a team on the rise, Levi did not look like a deer in the headlights in limited action this spring at age 21, and there are no major obstacles to him taking over the net for the team. Many see Levi and picture the next Jake Oettinger who staked his claim to the Dallas net at age 22 a couple of seasons ago.

It is true that as of now Buffalo has no #1 goalie, with just Levi, Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen and Eric Comrie under contract. But the Sabres are well under the cap and, with whispers that Juuse Saros and/or Connor Hellebuyck could be moved, would be a likely landing spot for either of them. But at the end of 2022-23 the Sabres brass was stating publicly that Levi would be given a chance to compete for the starting job, which is not surprising since UPL has yet to sport a GAA under 3.00 in any season at the NHL or even AHL level, and the veneer might be wearing off him just as Levi's is shining. And Comrie was signed to what Buffalo felt was a bargain UFA deal, but has played poorly and gotten hurt, reminding some of Carter Hutton in the process.

If Levi does factor into the goaltending picture, what do past comparables tell us? First off, it is more common than I'd thought for a 22-year-old to play a good number of games for a team, as a total of 18 have appeared in 25+ games as a rookie age 22 or younger dating back to 2010-11. And guess what – more of them became established NHL starters than not, with most doing so by age 25. That having been said, just two had a double digit GSAA in that same season, with as many having a GSAA below zero. But the number who had quality start percentages of 55%+ was double that of those who were under 50%. Where they did have issues though, no matter how good they were, was with respect to Really Bad Starts, as more had one RBS per every five starts versus those who had fewer than one per every ten.

Still, expectations should be tempered, as just two of the 18 netminders appeared in half their teams' games, with 13 having a games-played total of 30 or less. Stats aside, that might be the most important information, as whether it was due to other options, not wanting to risk burning out the youngster, or a little bit of both, the reality is even if you make the NHL as a goalie at age 22 or younger, you're highly unlikely to play very much. And I see the same situation for Levi, who the Sabres, a team on the rise, will want to protect. Yes, they can see how Oettinger fared; however, they need look no further than their own conference to juxtapose that with Carter Hart, who's looking more and more like he might never be the goalie many thought he'd be perhaps due to being rushed into a starting role at too young an age. So for 2023-24, I see Levi's games played being ~30, with a better chance he plays fewer games than more.

Topic #3 – In a points only keeper which is the better pair to own: Josh Morrissey and Owen Power or John Carlson and Luke Hughes?

This is a toughie because of a variety of factors. In Morrissey and Carlson, you have teams on the decline, while Power and Hughes are on squads whose futures look bright. Morrissey also is a question mark, as although he had a superb 2022-23, it was a mere couple of seasons ago that Neal Pionk shined, and he's still in the mix. Yes, one would think Morrissey would have earned a long leash; but Pionk played very well when Morrissey missed time toward the end of 2022-23, such that I'd say Morrissey's grip on being the top option for blueline offense in Winnipeg is not as strong as many would have you believe.

Then there's Hughes, who seems NHL ready. In his case, the impediment to favorable minutes and scoring is Dougie Hamilton, who had his best year and still likely has gas left in the tank. But only once before has Hamilton ever strung together two solid seasons, and if he falters one would think that Hughes could step in. And even if Hamilton gets the star treatment again, that would likely mean Hughes plays sheltered minutes and, if New Jersey as strong a team as expected, could still post at least point per every other game scoring.

Power had a fine 2022-23, not looking like a boy among men. But Rasmus Dahlin showed he was a top tier offensive rearguard who belongs in the conversation with the likes of Cale Makar, Adam Fox and Quinn Hughes. It would take a lot to envision Power leeching into the scoring of Dahlin. But like Hughes, the team around him will be strong enough that Power should still be able to fare well, likely better than Hughes.

Carlson is a tough one. Put me down as someone who thinks the Washington ship is sinking and it's going to only get worse. Their players skew old and are injury-plagued. Carlson too is not the same he was, due to age and missing a chunk of time in 2022-23. If this was a couple of years ago I'd say he was a lock for 65+ points; however, now I'm less certain, and in fact fear his scoring will be under 60 on a going forward basis, with how far below depending on how much of a lasting toll Carlson's 2022-23 injuries took, and the extent to which things worsen for the other Caps players.

In the end, what this really boils down to is if Morrissey is more of a question mark than Carlson at this point, and I think with the edge Power provides over Hughes, Morrissey is not enough of a risk to tilt the scales away from his side of this equation. So I'm giving this to Morrissey and Power, but barely.

Topic #4 – Which player will be the best to own in a points only league for 2023-24: Dawson Mercer, Barrett Hayton, Tommy Novak, or Kaapo Kakko?

I'll answer this question from a value perspective rather than just straight scoring – that is, I'll look at who will do best as compared to what it would cost to obtain them via draft or trade. Otherwise, it would be a two-horse race between Hayton and Mercer.

The first player I'm eliminating is Novak. His problem is that he played well enough at the end of the season to turn heads, and people will value him higher than might be called for because he was so good so late in the season. Yes, Hayton was playing top tier hockey as well; however, most will look at his stats for the season and not readily discern just how well he was doing in the fourth quarter. With Novak, the issue to is he did what he did when the Nashville line-up was very depleted. Yes, he did play well before his ice time really rose in Q4, Nashville brought in a coach who most agree will try to jumpstart the team's offense, and Ryan Johansen is no longer in the mix. I just fear that Novak won't be able to perform up to expectations. Granted, some might be skeptical like me; but I'm pretty sure that in most leagues there will be one or two GMs who have visions of him continuing his momentum, such that in order to draft or trade for him one would need to overpay. So he's not my pick.

Kaako, on the other hand, will have a value that's never been lower. Yes, he topped 40 points for the first time; however, he still is seen as a failure and the Rangers just brought in a coach who is not known for giving heaps of ice time to younger players. That should lead to Kaako being able to be obtained for a bargain. Even still, I think he's a bargain for a reason, and I'd stay away, since in my most recent Forum Buzz column I noted that the players to whom Kaako is most comparable are Danius Zubrus, Taylor Pyatt and Tom Wilson, with Wilson being cut from an entirely different cloth, Pyatt flopping, and Zubrus not panning out until in his late 20s. So Kaako is not my pick either.

Mercer is intriguing, as he seems to be shaping up to be Carter Verhaeghe 2.0 in that he is a top six fixture but largely out of the PP1 picture. With Verhaeghe that showed signs of changing in the playoffs; however, in the case of Mercer even after a nearly point per game Q3, he still did not sniff PP1. Of course, Mercer is younger than Verhaeghe, and hasn't even hit his breakout threshold, so the potential for explosive gains is there. But New Jersey is not short on talent at the wing, and I do fear that Mercer will remain good but not great.

As for Hayton, he too is due to hit his breakout threshold in 2023-24, but unlike Mercer he was already getting a regular shift on PP1 by the second half. And the Coyotes have a void at first line center, which Hayton seems more than capable of filling. There's no reason to not expect him to again get 19:00+ of TOI, with 3:00 or so on PP, and to be lining up alongside Clayton Keller, who is seemingly on his way to being no longer the NHL's best kept secret, what with 48 points in his final 39 games for 2022-23. And best yet – due to playing in the hockey wasteland of Arizona and, as noted above, his season-long stats disguising his torrid Q4 pace, Hayton likely will not cost much more – if even more – than Mercer to obtain. So Hayton is my pick of the four.

Topic #5 – A GM who acquired Adam Boqvist for a second round (16th overall) pick in his 12 team points only league, but now has an offer on the table for Boqvist plus Patrick Kane for Vince Dunn. Should the GM accept the deal?

Let's talk about Boqvist first. He's set to turn 23 in August; and although he hasn't made a huge impact, his points per 60 minutes was 1.5 or 1.6 in each of his last three seasons. To put that in perspective, his 1.6 points per 60 minutes for 2022-23 tied for 27th among all d-men who played 40+ games, and put him ahead of the likes of Drew Doughty, Devon Toews, Rasmus Andersson, Kris Letang, and Thomas Chabot to name just a few. And that was on a Columbus team which was third to last in goals scored.

The other thing to consider is with Columbus having loaded their blueline and likely looking to improve elsewhere, someone will likely be ticketed out of town, and my money is on Boqvist, who is young and not expensive and has shown offensive capabilities. Put him on the right team and, well, we all saw what happened with Juuso Valimaki, who I think is not as talented as Boqvist but fared well when given a chance to play real minutes.  More on Valimaki below.

Does that mean I'd outright refuse to trade Boqvist. No; however, I would likely value him higher than most. And giving up him and Patrick Kane, who will be out to prove wrong those who say he's done for and who I like to push for a 90-point scoring pace.

What of Dunn though? Much like Boqvist, he was a d-man who many thought could flourish if merely given the chance. And sure enough that happened in Seattle. Do I think he has it in him to score at a 65 point pace on a regular basis? Quite possibly, as his IPP overall was not too high and it was 62.6% on the PP, making it so his mere 15 PPPts could very realistically increase by enough to offset however many points – if any – he lucked into.

It's funny – I can see wanting to make this trade from both perspectives. And when that's the case it likely means the deal is probably "fair" on paper. If the GM believes in Boqvist though, then I'd hold pat, as Boqvist could soon give one 2/3 of what Dunn offers, with Kane more than making up for the rest.

Topic #6 – Sean Durzi, Jusso Valimaki, and J.J. Moser – which of them will run PP1 and will that guy be the best fantasy option?

Let's take care of the easy part first – I don't see a universe where it's Moser. After 13 points in his first 20 games, with six coming on the PP, Moser managed just 18 – with just five coming on the PP – in his final 62 contests. Yes, by Q4 his ice time was back up and he did post eight points in 20 games; however, I think a whole lot would have to go right with Moser, and a whole lot would have to go wrong with the other two, for Moser to be the best of the bunch.

So that narrows it to Durzi or Valimaki. Looking first at Valimaki, his season-long stats disguise that he was playing very well as the campaign progressed, with 23 points in his final 39 games. But only five of those came on the PP and it is notable that Valimaki does not shoot much, as he had just 55 SOG in those 39 games.

As for Durzi, despite the fact he was stuck behind a "the guy" d-man in Drew Doughty, he quietly put together two very solid seasons. Case in point – Durzi ranked 29th in cumulative PPPts over the last two seasons, ahead of the likes of Seth Jones, John Klingberg, Alex Pietrangelo, and Shea Theodore, and this despite taking the ice for only the 37th most PP minutes. When looking at overall scoring, an even better picture is painted, as Durzi's cumulative TOI ranked him 109th among all d-men, yet his point per game was a much better 46th. Yes, Valimaki has former first round credentials; however, that was six years ago. And the Coyotes didn't certainly didn't get Durzi dumped upon them, as they had to part with a second rounder to land him. So clearly Arizona wanted Durzi, which, in turn, would seem to suggest either he'd have the inside track to be the go to guy for blueline offense, or if not then he'd probably get first crack, which, if I think happens, he runs with it. One other thing to keep in mind is despite Valimaki's success last season, his OZ% was only 42.9%, meaning he could be seen as more of an all-around talent, while Durzi would be tasked with rearguard scoring.

If I had to put this in percentages, I'd say the chances Durzi emerges as the best of the three would be 65%, with it being 30% for Valimaki and 5% for Moser. So I'm taking Durzi here without hesitation.

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Questions for Mailbag column needed

The upcoming edition of my monthly mailbag still has room for a couple more questions, which you can send me by either private messaging “rizzeedizzee” via the DobberHockey Forums, or emailing [email protected] with “Roos Mailbag” as the subject line.