The Nashville Predators signed Denis Gurianov a couple days ago to a one-year deal with an $850K AAV. He was acquired by Montreal last season but the team let him walk this summer. He had 7 goals and 10 assists in 66 games last year.

Even as an ardent Gurianov proponent, I will admit it’s hard to keep the faith as he enters his age-26 season. The tough part for him is that – at least until up to 2022-23 – Gurianov is a guy that likes playing fast off the rush. Conversely, Nashville was not good in this regard last year. They also have a lot of similar players in their forward mix, and most of them are homegrown talents, to some extent. It will be an uphill climb to fantasy relevance.

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This week, we've spent a pair of Ramblings looking at changes in fantasy categories. With the increased scoring and penalties, it was sure to change statistical benchmarks, and it has. It goes far beyond points and penalties, though, as a huge rise in shot blocking has altered fantasy values for defencemen and the distribution of hits and shots has changed among forwards. Go read the Ramblings from Tuesday for a macro view of changes in fantasy categories, and the one from yesterday that drills down to changes in peripheral rates based on production levels.

To round out the theme, we're going to focus even further and get to specific players. Knowing how stat totals/values are changing is one thing but knowing which players to pursue (or not) is another.

The earlier Ramblings focused on rates per game played because that's how fantasy leagues are run. Today, we're going to incorporate per-minute rates because changes in a player's role can boost or decrease value per-game value, and those changes are very important in fantasy hockey. Defencemen are first on the docket, followed by some forwards. Let's dig for some multi-cat value.

Jake Walman

There has been a lot of talk of how the acquisition of Shayne Gostisbehere will affect Moritz Seider. That makes sense, but there's also Walman, who had 84 blocks and 100 shots over his final 44 games of last season. He skated 17:36 a game in 2022-23 through the end of December, and that jumped to 20:38 each night afterwards in that 44-game stretch. Gostisbehere is an impediment for PP time while the Justin Holl signing means competition for even-strength TOI. Walman should still see around 20 minutes a night, and that means huge block totals and adequate hit rates. More points will (hopefully) come with Alex DeBrincat in the fold, but his multi-cat value is high already. The growing competition is an ongoing concern, however.

Calen Addison

A cap crunch means bringing in help isn't an option for Minnesota. In turn, that means Addison will keep getting top PPTOI, and now that he has a full-ish season under his belt, hopefully he flourishes. His peripheral stats in 2022-23 weren't good – 77 shots, 38 blocks, 19 hits in 62 games – but that is a bit misleading because he only skated 16:07 a night. To illustrate what he might be able to do with more ice time, the picture below shows two different per-60-minute stat lines from two different defencemen in 2022-23. One was likely a top-12 defenceman off the board in fantasy drafts last September, the other is Addison:

[ADDISON]

Just 20-21 minutes a night for Addison would make him threaten 150 shots and 150 hits+blocks. Something to keep in mind if his stock falls in September drafts.

Darren Raddysh

I will admit that I'm having a tough time figuring out the Tampa Bay blue line. Mikhail Sergachev legitimately overtook Victor Hedman for top PP minutes, but Darren Raddysh skated over 25 minutes a night in the playoffs, exceeding Hedman's 23:37. Hedman was fighting injuries basically all season, but it's very notable Raddysh leapt everyone but Sergachev.

Raddysh only played 17 regular season games, but his closest comp in shots, blocks, and hits per minute was Dmitry Orlov. Last season, Orlov averaged 275 hits+blocks in 82 games while skating 22:33 a night. If Raddysh maintains second-pair minutes for Tampa Bay, 250 hits+blocks are within reach, and good production should follow. He had great AHL production last year, and if that production translates to the NHL, well…

MacKenzie Weegar

Weegar saw a sizable production drop in his first season with Calgary, not all of it related to losing over two minutes a night in ice time. The curious thing is that despite 161 fewer minutes played in 2022-23 than 2021-22, he posted more hits (186 to 179). His block rates went down, and his shots per minute as well, but his shot attempts were consistent. If he can hit the net with his usual rate in the upcoming season, his shots will rebound, but the rise in shot blocking across the league does not make that a certainty.

Of course, it's the prospect of a new coach that is enticing here. If Weegar can earn more ice time again, everything should rebound, including his production, and he'll come at a nice discount in September.

Connor Clifton

Despite skating under 18 minutes a night, Clifton posted a whopping 328 hits+blocks, surpassing 200 hits alone. His hits-per-60 have stayed constant for his career, but last season saw his blocks/60 saw a huge jump, rising nearly 34% from 2021-22. A jump like that is hard to rely on, but it gives a glimpse into the upside he offers in 2023-24.

Over the last two seasons, there have been 12 instances of a defenceman reaching these marks: 5 goals, 15 assists, and 300 hits+blocks. Four defencemen have done it twice and this is the entire list, including the man of the hour:

Clifton has moved on to Buffalo, and that blue line is filling up. There are Rasmus Dahlin and Owen Power, of course, but also a healthy Mattias Samuelsson, a recently signed Erik Johnson, and Henrik Jokiharju. It may be hard for Clifton to earn 20 minutes a night consistently, but any sort of increase should help that multi-cat value grow.

David Perron

There were only 13 forwards in the NHL last season that reached 20 goals, 30 assists, 190 shots, and 100 hits. One of them was the titular Perron, who managed his third straight 82-game season of at least 20 goals, 30 assists, 160 shots, and 60 hits. The old man's still got it (and he's younger than me).

Alex DeBrincat brings a much-needed sniping dimension to the Red Wings, both at even strength and on the power play. I do not see the team playing him and Lucas Raymond on the same line, if only because Raymond needs playmakers to set him up and DeBrincat isn't that guy; he's a good playmaker but not elite. I do wonder if it's Perron that will be opposite DeBrincat both at 5-on-5 and on the power play. Perron doesn't have the upside of other multi-cat forwards, but he's still a solid option that can threaten 25 goals, 60 points, 200 shots, and 100 hits.

Michael Amadio

The trade of Reilly Smith ostensibly opens a middle-6 winger option on a permanent basis. Given the team's lack of cap space, his replacement will come internally. Given the team's lack of prospects, it could very well be Amadio. He was a regular for them last year, even if he was healthy scratched at times. Vegas does not seem to like him on the fourth line, so it's a middle-6 role or press box for Amadio. Again, with the lack of depth, I'm betting on a middle-6 role.

Last season, Amadio's closest comparable forward on a per-minute basis was Kevin Labanc. That might not seem like high praise, but Labanc's 82-game paces were for 38 points, 147 shots, 32 blocks, and 80 hits. That was on an awful San Jose team. What if Amadio gets a full-season role playing for an excellent Vegas team, perhaps skating with Mark Stone for large swaths of time? There could be good, cheap value in multi-cat formats here.

Boone Jenner

Columbus went through a brutal year but sparks from Kent Johnson, goals from Kirill Marchenko, and drafting Adam Fantilli make the long-term look bright. That doesn't even get into their blue line, which is loaded with high-end prospects. The future is on its way.

The thing is, they still don't have a top centre to replace Boone Jenner. They can try Johnson, or Jack Roslovic, and certainly Fantilli will get time. But does anyone think Mike Babcock is going to play any of those guys 19 minutes a night over Jenner in 2023-24? I sure don't. Jenner finished the 2022-23 season with higher goal, assist, shot, hit, and block rates than Anders Lee. Lee, meanwhile, finished 110^th on Yahoo! fantasy last season. Jenner could easily be a top-100 fantasy player in multi-cat formats this upcoming season and he will not be drafted anywhere close to that mark.

Mason Marchment

There is no sugar-coating just how bad Marchment's season was. Despite more ice time in Dallas than in Florida, his points per game were nearly halved and his shots per game also declined. It just did not work out for them, and it's why they had to bring in help like Max Domi and Evgenii Dadonov toward the end of the season.

Marchment is still earning $4.5M a season and there is one spot for him in the top-9 mix. He could get Matt Duchene on his line, and it would give him a tremendous dual-threat playmaker. That he is a year removed from 114 hits in a 54-game season should indicate the multi-cat upside if he can click with Duchene. This is a potential 20-goal, 45-point, 160-shot, 120-hit winger that will also be cheap at the draft table because of his down year.

Jordan Greenway

In his Ramblings on Monday, Dobber brought up that Greenway skated with Tage Thompson, at times, following Greenway's trade from Minnesota. Looking back at his 2018-2022 totals, Greenway compared favourably to Vladislav Namestnikov at 5-on-5. That may not seem like much, but Namestnikov had a three-year stretch that saw him average 15 goals, 18 assists, 127 shots, and 134 hits every 82 games. If Greenway can get a meaningful role, that would make for some pretty good production available late in drafts.

Alright, those are some players I'm looking at that will hopefully be undervalued at multi-cat draft tables in September. Anyone else come to mind?