The Journey: High-Upside Depth Options from the 2023 Draft – Part 2

Ben Gehrels

2023-07-15

Welcome back to The Journey, where we track the development of prospects as they excel in junior, make the NHL, and push towards stardom.

Now that the real NHL draft is over, fantasy leagues have the green light to hold their own. Most managers are well acquainted by now with the big names in 2023, not only the guys at the top of the draft but also most players taken in the first round. While nailing your early picks is essential, the most interesting aspect of drafting is snagging hidden gems in later rounds.

With that in mind, this week's Journey will pick up where we left off last week, highlighting some more lesser-known commodities taken outside the first round in Nashville last month that could help you get an edge on your competitors a few years down the road—boom-bust types that might not make the NHL but could score in buckets if they do.

Prospects covered in Part One: Roman Kantserov (CH), Koehn Ziemmer (LAK), Jayden Perron (CAR), Denver Barkey (PHI), Hoyt Stanley (OTT), Rodwin Dionicio (ANA), Tuomas Uronen (VGK), Aiden Fink (NAS)

Round Two

Gavin Brindley, CBJ

Kasper Halttunen, SJS

Andrew Cristall, WAS

Felix Nilsson, NAS

Although his year was cut short in March due to injury, Nilsson has an above-average, well-rounded skill-set that makes him a relatively safe bet to project as an NHL middle-sixer—with upside for more. Nilsson actually went a bit sooner on draft day than most public outlets predicted, one slot earlier than our ranking at Dobber Prospects (44th). He is a smart, responsible player whose hands and feet lag behind his vision and processing. He knows where he needs to be, plays hard in all three zones, and is constantly scanning the ice.

His microstats (tracked by Lassi Alanen at EP Rinkside) show that he creates a steady flow of scoring opportunities for his team by constantly attacking the middle of the ice. He is heavily involved in the play and contributes in all sorts of ways with a particular aptitude for controlled breakouts. For fantasy purposes, I would love to see him develop more of a shooter's mentality; the main thing that gives me pause, other than his lack of a truly dynamic quality, is his emphasis on playmaking over sniping.

Danny Nelson, NYI

Carson Rehkopf, SEA

Lukas Dragicevic, SEA

Gracyn Sawchyn, FLA

I wrote about Sawchyn last week in my Florida column for Dobber Prospects' July 32-in-32 series, where we are recapping all of the major offseason moves for each team in the NHL. Although he slipped further than generally expected—DP had him at 29, Elite Prospects at 13, for instance—Sawchyn represents incredible value for Florida at 63rd and has more star potential (20%) and NHL likelihood (52%) than quite a few of the 62 players taken before him.

Like Nilsson, Sawchyn is a strong two-way player who grades out as more of a playmaker than shooter, constantly feathering slick passes to teammates in high-danger areas; he had an off-the-charts impact in terms of generating scoring chances for his team last year. Unlike Nilsson, however, he has a non-stop motor, a handful of high-end skills, and a profile reminiscent of fellow Cats pick Mackie Samoskevich, who just went over a point-per-game in his Draft+2 NCAA campaign. Expect Sawchyn's WHL production, and fantasy stocks, to take a sizable step forward in 2023-24.

Riley Heidt, MIN

Round Three

William Whitelaw, CBJ

Nick Lardis, CHI

It is always interesting when high-profile prospects are traded mid-season in any of the three Canadian Hockey Leagues (WHL, OHL, QMJHL) because new roles and teammates can have a dramatic impact on production. But Lardis had a more dramatic jump than most: after underwhelming with Peterborough, he blew up after being traded to Brantford, pacing for nearly 100 points over his final 33 games as a Bulldog (46 points). How high might his draft stocks have flown had he hit the centennial mark in the OHL as a draft-eligible?

Like fellow Hawks pick Kantserov, profiled last week, Lardis will go higher than he otherwise would have in fantasy drafts because he was plucked by Chicago and might one day play with Connor Bedard. Let's review: he is a high-end skater who processes the game quickly and is known for his arsenal of dangerous shots. Sounds like an awesome linemate down the road for Bedard and the lightning-fast Oliver Moore.

Building strength is a must for him, however; with his small frame (5-10, 165lbs), he gets regularly outmuscled and beaten along the boards right now at the junior level. Much more one-dimensional than the two players profiled above, Lardis might also have the highest offensive ceiling if everything breaks right. Grab him now if you can. If he pops 50 goals next year with Brantford, you know everyone will come knocking.

Puckhandling might not be what he is known for, but check out the way Lardis effortlessly dances around defenders right now at the U18 level. Many of these dekes remind me of Leo Carlsson (ANA) and Jayden Perron (CAR), two of the best handlers in the draft.

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Round Four

Alexander Rykov, CAR

Luca Pinelli, CBJ

Luca Cagnoni, ANA

Aram Minnetian, DAL

Round Five

Cam Allen, WAS

Matthew Mania, LAK

Grand pronouncement time: Mania could become the best player drafted in the fifth round in recent memory. While other contenders include Joshua Roy (MON, 2021), William Dufour (NYI, 2020), and Arseny Gritsyuk (NJD, 2019), Mania has shades of recent first-rounder Frank Nazar (CHI, 2022) to his game in the sense that he creates controlled chaos with every touch and consistently maintains possession under pressure. DP's Luke Sweeney had this to say in our final ranking, where Mania finished 49th overall: "It's difficult to think of any player in the CHL, let alone a defenseman, that, when they're on, can do as much with the puck as Mania can in such a short amount of time."

Why did he fall to the Kings in the fifth round? I am honestly scratching my head on that one. His 38 points in 67 games is admittedly underwhelming, and those are not the offensive totals one would expect of a player of his calibre. Sudbury was one of the lower-end teams in the OHL this year and Mania was their top-scoring D-man, but he still barely exceeded a half-point per game. Nevertheless, he is a raw, toolsy defender with a decent frame (6-1, 187lbs) who does not have any real holes in his game. While scouting reports tend to zero in on his offense while raising question marks about his defending, Mania's microstats paint a strong picture of his overall impact on defense (91), offense (89), and in transition (98). What a fantastic upside swing for L.A. at this point in the draft.

Round Six

Timur Mukhanov, CAR

Mukhanov finished 46th on DP's final board but was still available for Carolina way down at 163rd overall—likely because he stands at 5-8, 179 lbs. There really does seem to be a shift happening again in the NHL draft away from smaller players, especially when they are not incredible skaters or willing to play a tenacious, physical game. Mukhanov is a plus-level skater and a skilled playmaker but does not have any single "wow" skill like Sawchyn's handling or Lardis' shot. Making his NHL projection especially difficult is the fact that he bounced around in depth roles between the MHL and VHL—with a few minutes in one KHL game. On top of that, he was consistently unlucky according to EP scout, Dylan Griffing: "Mukhanov is probably the unluckiest player in the 2023 Draft. This guy just cannot buy a point despite the quantity and quality of the chances he's creating."

Mukhanov currently has the 20th best Star potential (27%) in the 2023 draft class according to Hockey Prospecting, and another year dominating the Russian junior league and/or learning the ropes in the second-tier pro league will go a long way towards clarifying his projection. Regardless of what his future holds, Carolina yet again snagged one of the highest-upside late-round players in the draft. He will be a long wait but is worth a stash in deeper keeper and dynasty formats.

Check out his speed and handling in the following film reel. Impressive stuff from an 18-year-old primarily against grown pros:

Round Seven

Tyler Peddle, CBJ

Peddle made headlines as the final pick of this year's draft when Columbus traded their 2024 seventh-rounder to Vegas for the opportunity to pick him. Even Bob McKenzie's ranking at TSN, which generally reflects industry consensus, had Peddle at 58th overall. We had him at 65th at DP because of his excellent offensive-zone positioning and shot selection. He did not fall due to size (6-1, 205lbs), so his plunge was quite a mystery. His 41 points in 64 QMJHL games is the most likely culprit; those are not the numbers one would expect from a player of his caliber. But really, while he obviously needs to improve across the board, the main concern noted by our team was his frustrating tendency to get tunnel vision with the puck. Despite his technical passing ability, he repeatedly failed to utilize it to distribute pucks to his teammates. If the Columbus development staff can activate his playmaking habits, this could end up looking like an excellent seventh-round pick for the Blue Jackets in a couple years.

Thanks for reading! Follow me on Twitter @beegare for more prospect content and fantasy hockey analysis.

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UPCOMING GAMES

Dec 23 - 13:12 N.J vs NYR
Dec 23 - 14:12 TOR vs WPG
Dec 23 - 19:12 DET vs STL
Dec 23 - 19:12 CBJ vs MTL
Dec 23 - 19:12 BOS vs WSH
Dec 23 - 19:12 FLA vs T.B
Dec 23 - 19:12 PIT vs PHI
Dec 23 - 19:12 NYI vs BUF
Dec 23 - 20:12 NSH vs CAR
Dec 23 - 20:12 MIN vs CHI
Dec 23 - 21:12 UTA vs DAL
Dec 23 - 21:12 VAN vs S.J
Dec 23 - 22:12 VGK vs ANA

Starting Goalies

Top Skater Views

  Players Team
JACKSON LACOMBE ANA
LANE HUTSON MTL
PATRIK LAINE MTL
SHANE PINTO OTT
JONATHAN HUBERDEAU CGY

Top Goalie Profile Views

  Players Team
MACKENZIE BLACKWOOD COL
SPENCER KNIGHT FLA
DAVID RITTICH L.A
LUKAS DOSTAL ANA
JACOB MARKSTROM N.J

LINE COMBOS

  Frequency VAN Players
23.5 ELIAS PETTERSSON CONOR GARLAND JAKE DEBRUSK
18.3 KIEFER SHERWOOD DANTON HEINEN TEDDY BLUEGER
17.2 J.T. MILLER PHILLIP DI GIUSEPPE BROCK BOESER

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