The 18^th annual Fantasy Guide will be released on Friday, July 28. That's right – less than two weeks. I've already analyzed, written and projected five teams.

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I rant a lot, as regular readers of me here (and on Twitter) can attest. I found myself ranting to a buddy a couple of nights ago, about some of the things that had me scratching my head. I figured it would make a great Ramblings topic – a topic for discussion. Agree/Disagree? Feel free to weigh in. But here are 15 moves – or non-moves – that have baffled me the most. In order of least baffling to most baffling…

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15. Minnesota – Mason Shaw

I realized, as I nearly finished compiling my list, that I wasn't going to reach my initial target of a Top 20. Even getting to 15 was a push, as you can see with this one. Not so much baffling as…curious. Shaw did a great job for the Wild. He's injury prone, and a definite risk in that department (health) – especially in the midst of rehabbing his fourth (!) ACL tear. But he was making the league minimum, was a solid penalty killer with metrics that weren't that bad. At that price, you're not going to get much better. Why invest six years into a player only to drop him 62 games into his NHL career?

14. Detroit/Daniel Sprong – Detroit and Daniel Sprong

This ‘baffle’ is for both parties. Sprong enjoyed a great season with Seattle despite being held down the lineup by his coach – his production kept him afloat despite limited opportunity. It's smart of him and his agent to get him signed to a contract right away. They read the market and determined that they needed to lock things down before the money dried up, because he didn't have a strong enough foothold on a roster spot to get an NHL job even days after free agency opened. He also did well to get a $2M contract, even for one year. But…Detroit? He is genuinely risking that next contract. With Alex DeBrincat, David Perron, Robby Fabbri, Lucas Raymond, Jonatan Berggren absolutely locking up the first five wing spots, he has to beat out both Klim Kostin and Joe Veleno (who I believe moves to the wing this year) if he wants a spot in the top nine. If he's not in the top nine nor on a PP unit, he's not getting a contract next year, simple as that. Seems a little risky, when other teams could have used him even if it meant taking a bit less.

And from Detroit’s standpoint? Why? Seems like the Red Wings solved their issues in adding depth on the wing by acquiring Kostin and signing Christan Fischer. And if they still need one, they can call up Marco Kasper or Elmer Soderblom. Not a huge deal, just a bit of a curiosity for me due to a lack of fit.

13. Detroit – Justin Holl

The Red Wings lack right-shot defensemen in the lineup, so I get that part of it. Holl's metrics weren't great, but they weren't as bad as Leafs' fans and analysts would have you believe. He did get scratched by the Leafs near the end of his tenure there. But…three years at $3.4M cap hit? Seems like the agent had Steve Yzerman convinced that other teams were in a bidding war with them.

12. Colorado – Denis Malgin

I wonder why Colorado didn't qualify Denis Malgin, and why no team has kicked tires.
23-goal pace in the second half, solid metrics pic.twitter.com/pBiunfCHkR

— Dobber (@DobberHockey) July 12, 2023

Colorado’s Pts/60 leaders:

1. MacKinnon 4.2

2. Rantanen 3.5

3. Nichushkin 2.6

4. Makar 2.5

5. DENIS MALGIN 2.3

6. Lehkonen 2.3

Everyone else: below 2.0

Not worthy of being qualified for the league minimum salary? Very odd. And I don't want to hear how he's only 5-9. Two inches can't mean the difference between ignoring the metrics and potential upside at bargain-basement pricing, and just letting a player go.

11. Edmonton – Kailer Yamamoto

I get that the Oilers needed to bring their cap down. I get that Yamamoto hasn't met expectations yet. But to me, that's a matter of managing expectations. He's probably two years away from any kind of breakout, and while it would have been nice if he became a star within 200 games of his career, often it doesn't work out that way. They just invested millions in developing this player and they let him go just for more cap space.

Cap space is important. Understood. But we saw before, with Brooks Orpik and Washington, where they trade the player for his buyout – and then signed him back at a low rate. They could have still brought Yamamoto in and given it two more years.

10. Nashville – Denis Gurianov

Great cap hit ($850k) for a low risk/decent reward signing. So how can this hurt? Well, while they try this guy out early in the season, it could mean that Philip Tomasino or Luke Evangelista get pushed to the minors. Even if that only lasts a couple of weeks – it's two weeks too long. These guys earned their spot, yet because they are exempt from waivers, this signing could see them sent to the minors. Even for the no-doubt short term that this lasts, it's a negative.

9. Toronto – Ryan Reaves

Is this the toughness needed? A player who is 36 and coming off a season in which he was scratched more than once? The Leafs did this with Wayne Simmonds, except Simmonds was only 31. But even if you subscribe to the theory that a tough guy playing seven minutes for three quarters of the games will help your team win a playoff round – did they need to sign him for three years? If he's in the lineup, that will mean that a player such as Pontus Holmberg, Nick Robertson or Sam Lafferty is in the press box. I'm baffled.

8. Ottawa – Joonas Korpisalo

If you're like me, you're loving Ottawa's rebuild. This young team is looking competitive for years to come. So committing five years to a goalie who has never played 40 games in a season in his entire career (at any level) seems like a huge risk. Four of Korpisalo's last six seasons saw him with a sub-0.900 SV%. Could it work? Of course it could. But so could promoting a kid, or signing Tristan Jarry for $1.3M more. Or signing an Alex Lyon for $4M less. Just an odd decision. I would have understood this if it was for one or two years.

7. Toronto – Kyle Dubas

I'm not baffled at all as to why Brendan Shanahan let Dubas go. He felt threatened. Dubas did a better job than he did and was obviously gunning for his job. I'm baffled as to why management didn't step in and fire Shanahan, and keep Dubas.

Dubas went out and immediately got the same job as Shanahan's with Pittsburgh. The Penguins had a dire need for a true checking line, a bit of depth and playoff experience on the wing, and a good checking defenseman. He then acquires Reilly Smith, Matt Nieto, Lars Eller, Noel Acciari and Ryan Graves. This will have a domino effect that will surprise you – I think it opens things up a lot for their veteran stars, likely giving them a good boost for the next couple of years. Just when you thought the Penguins were done…

6. Anaheim – Radko Gudas

Anaheim isn't going to make the playoffs this year. You know it. Their fans know it. Anaheim management knows it. So why sign an older veteran for three years? The last two of which are likely going to be…not great. This is a signing that a contending team makes, not a rebuilding one. Just when the Ducks will be ready to contend, Gudas will be in the last year of his contract and by then he'll be this anchor that they have to play.

Be like Columbus: sign nobody, trade for or draft your players.

5. Chicago/Vladimir Tarasenko – Chicago and Vladimir Tarasenko

Tarasenko is going to sign with Ottawa (the favorite), Nashville, Florida, San Jose or Nashville. Why on earth is Chicago not involved? I've ranted about this several times, so I won't beat this drum too much here. I get that he wants a multi-year deal and doesn't want to be on a rebuild. I get that Chicago already signed the veterans they wanted to sign. But signing Tarasenko for cheap, benefits everybody.

Chicago would gain: Connor Bedard would do far better with Tarasenko on his line than Taylor Hall. I have very little faith in Hall.

Tarasenko would gain: He would make far more money in the long run. A one-year deal, even at the league minimum, on a line with a player that will help him maximize his point total, will lead to a multi-year deal worth far more than the one he signs this summer. Far more. Especially with the cap going up by so much next summer. Whatever he gets for the 50 points that he just got in 2022-23 when teams have no cap room, just imagine the term and dollars he would get after 70 or 75 points!

4. NY Islanders – Lou Lamoriello

Every month that goes by, I wonder why Lamoriello still has a job. Kudos to the Stanley Cups that the teams he built won back in the 1850s. The style of the NHL has changed about 78 times since his culture, team style and roster makeup were considered the best way to be successful. Lamoriello is not innovative. He doesn't adapt. And, at nearly 81 (!) years old – that's not going to change.

Once in a while, a defensive coaching system and a team that buys into it from top to bottom, will steal a couple of playoff rounds. But in this day and age – it won't steal four. Why do Islanders' ownership put up with consistent mediocrity? The team squeaked into the playoffs and lost in the first round. The year before that – no playoffs at all. Before that? They squeaked in, but stole two rounds. Squeaked into the playoffs the year before that, but again stole two rounds plus a play-in. The strategy seems to be: hope like hell the team squeaks in (and that's hit or miss), and then pray that their goalie is hot and they steal rounds. How long will ownership believe this?

The Isles were a bad team last year. A bad team with an elite goalie. A smart person would address this. A dinosaur would try his damnedest to keep that bad team intact. All Lamoriello did this summer was bring back his same players. Each year he'll add a great character guy or two, who have skill, at the deadline (Bo Horvat and Pierre Engvall this year). And every summer, he works hard to keep everybody. The same kind of players, and round and round we go. And ownership seems to honestly believe that a young businessman with hockey experience and new ideas would not be an upgrade to an 81-year-old who hasn't changed his strategy in 30 years.

Isles fans: I'm so sorry you have to deal with this.

3. Anaheim – Alex Killorn

As per number six on this list – the Ducks aren't competing this year. So why are they doing this? Killorn is not a 65-point player. They suckered for a career year that was in a contract year – the oldest trick in the book – and overpaid a 34-year-old for the next four seasons! Truly mind-boggling.

2. Himself – Alex Galchenyuk

A third-overall pick who is still in his prime, Galchenyuk had fallen on hard times, mostly due to injury but also some consistency issues, and he was trying to crawl back and re-secure his NHL career. He seemed to be getting back on that path late in 2020-21 with Toronto. He stuck for a full season with Arizona in 2021-22. And then signed with Colorado, a team that was too deep for him to crack. It was a smart move to sign back with Arizona, where he would likely have stuck in the NHL. He was on the cusp of winning a regular role back, but had to give it his all and make no mistakes.

So…threaten a cop and a cop's family? Make racist remarks to a police officer? Drive while intoxicated? Why oh why oh why would you do this? He has to be the biggest idiot in hockey! He cost himself nearly a million dollars. And his NHL career is 100% over. There is no coming back from this. Which means that he just cost himself several million dollars. I'm sure the KHL will pay him a salary, but nothing like what the NHL was giving him.

1. Chicago – Corey Perry

I don't mind the Hawks deciding that Perry was just the player they needed to help usher and guide Bedard into the NHL. And maybe $4M was what he said it would cost them if they wanted him to give up his shot at a Cup. But they didn't need to give up a trade asset to acquire his negotiating rights. And if $4M was the number he insisted on – I think it's time to go to Plan B.

If I'm the GM and I identify Perry as the guy, I roll the dice. It's an easy gamble, almost a sure thing. You don't trade an asset for him. And on July 1 you offer him $2M. No other team will come close to that. He'll come around, and if he doesn't – sign someone else. There are plenty of great veterans out there.

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See you next Monday.