Wild West: Core Four – Part Two of Four

Grant Campbell

2023-07-17

This week we will look at the next four teams in the West after we reviewed Anaheim, Arizona, Calgary and Chicago last week.

The Core Four are the players from each roster, who should be the foundation for their team to build off of over the next three to five years.

Colorado Avalanche

Nathan MacKinnon (F) (28 years old) – MacKinnon has now played 10 years in the NHL and finally broke through the 100-point barrier with 111 in 71 games. He hasn't had a year under 1.21 points per game since 2016-2017 and pushed it to 1.56 in 2022-2023. His three-year average is 1.43 and if he played 82 games it would be 118 points. I didn't think his shot rate could go much higher than 4.6 per game but he raised it to 5.2 and had 12 PPGs for the fourth time in his career. He can reach 50 goals and 120 points if healthy.

Mikko Rantanen (F) (27) – Over the past two seasons, Rantanen raised his even-strength goals from 20 to 42 and raised his overall goal total from 36 to 55. 42 of his 68 ES points came with MacKinnon on his line, so his production relies on #29. His points per game have been between 1.23 and 1.28 in each of the past three years. He had never had more than 21 ES goals before he put up 42, so it will be difficult to duplicate 50 goals again.

Cale Makar (D) (25) – From an outside perspective it seemed that Makar had a quiet year in 2022-2023 but still managed 66 points in 60 games. In 238 career games, he has 246 points and just needs to stay healthy to put up 80-90 each year. He's also a multi-category threat for the 100/100 club in hits and blocks. In my opinion, he's the best defenceman in the NHL.

There is no shortage of candidates for the fourth core piece in Colorado and if healthy it would be Gabriel Landeskog. We would also have to think about Artturi Lehkonen, Valeri Nichushkin, Devon Toews and perhaps even Alexandar Georgiev.

I'm choosing:

Bowen Byram (D) (22) – Byram has struggled to remain healthy the past three seasons with 42 games the most he has played. His potential is too enticing to not include him here. He has the ability to produce 45-55 points in a secondary role while also being a member of the 100/100 club. What happens with Byram this year will decide the fate of Devon Toews.

Dallas Stars

Jason Robertson (F) (24) – I thought Roope Hintz kind of carried the Stars a little more than Robertson did in the playoffs, but there is no denying Robertson is a core piece of this team. With 46 goals and 109 points, he increased his ES output from 58 to 68 points and his PPPs from 21 to 41. Last season might have been a career year, but he should be good for a few more 40 or 50 goal seasons and perhaps even reach 100 points again.

Roope Hintz (F) (26) – Hintz has been relatively healthy in back-to-back seasons and as a result scored 37 goals in each of them. His career shooting percentage is fairly high at 16.5, but he's been fairly consistent throughout. I believe he has another level of production in him.

Miro Heiskanen (D) (24) – Heiskanen had his breakout with 73 points in 79 games where he was finally able to click and stay on the first unit of the power play. It resulted in putting up 34 PPPs which eclipsed his career high of 11. I think he is in the top five in the NHL for defencemen.

Jake Oettinger (G) (24) – For the first time in his career, Oettinger's play was a little below average during the playoffs. This was after posting 37 wins, a 91.9 save percentage and a GSAA of 27.5 while playing 62 games. He's well on the way to becoming one of the best goalies in the league. 

Edmonton Oilers

Connor McDavid (F) (26) – McDavid is only 26 years old and already has 850 career points in 569 games. I thought he could perhaps get to 50 goals one day, but he went out and put up 64 by shooting 18.2 percent on 4.3 shots per game. He just continues to raise the bar in so many different aspects of his game and has improved in one way or another every year. Who am I to say he can't get to 2.0 points per game next year?

Leon Draisaitl (F) (28) – There is a perception around the league that Draisaitl is a product of McDavid and as McDavid goes he goes. While this might be a little true on the power play where McDavid was on the ice for 60 of Draisaitl's 62 PPPs, he was only on the ice for 31 of Draisaitl's 66 ES points. They complement one another very well and can play together or apart, but obviously, they do better together.

Evan Bouchard (D) (24) – Bouchard has had back-to-back 40 point seasons. When Tyson Barrie was dealt to Nashville, Bouchard took over on the first unit of the power play and in his last 18 regular season games he had 16 points with six on the PP and averaged just under 21 minutes per game. In the playoffs he had 17 points in 12 games with 15 on the PP while averaging 23 minutes per game. He's also a potential member of the 100/100 club for hits and blocks.

Which leaves us with one more spot between:

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Darnell Nurse (D) (28) – Nurse has his detractors in and outside of Edmonton, but he's a very valuable member of this team. His salary might be a little high at $9.5 million AAV but he had 43 points in 82 games to go along with 146 hits and 164 blocks while averaging 23:30 per game. An impressive breakdown of his 43 points shows that 39 of them were at ES and three were short handed. Like Nugent-Hopkins he is signed until the end of 2029-2030.

Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (F) (30) – It's possible that Nugent-Hopkins could be replaced in the lineup and current Oilers would fill the void (Evander Kane on the PP). After 104 points in 82 games and reaching 70 points and 30 goals for the first time it's likely he sees a decrease in production. Add in 53 power play points after a prior career high of 26 and only 26 of his 67 assists coming at ES there is potential for a large fall. Of his 67 assists, 39 were secondary which is 58.2 percent and fairly high for a forward.

Between Nugent-Hopkins and Nurse, I'd have to go with Nurse for the Core Four as I think his value to the roster is a little bit more. 

Los Angeles Kings

Anze Kopitar (F) (36) – With Kopitar extending his stay in Los Angeles to the end of 2025-2026 he can keep his spot in the core for another year at least. His 74 points were the most he had posted since he had 92 in 2017-2018. He's dominant in the faceoff circle (55.9%) and kills penalties 36.2 percent of the time while averaging over 20 minutes per game for the 16th time in the past 17 years.

Pierre-Luc Dubois (F) (25) – Dubois might have to earn this honor next year, but the Kings did sign him until 2030-2031 at $8.5 million AAV. He has career highs of 28 goals and 63 points and averaged a career high 0.86 points per game in 2022-2023. He should become a point-per-game center for the Kings in the next year or two.

Kevin Fiala (F) (27) – Fiala is signed until the end of 2028-2029 at $7.875 million AAV. He has been very consistent over the past 151 games with 157 points in both Minnesota and with the Kings as he has averaged 1.04 points per game in both years. He could benefit with the addition of Dubois.

Adrian Kempe (F) – (27) – I'm not sure I would have even considered Kempe for this spot at the end of last season and that was after putting up 35 goals. I didn't think he could match his 3.2 shots per game and maintain his 14.2 shooting percentage. While he dipped a little to 3.0 shots/g he raised his shooting accuracy to 16.4 and ended up with 41 goals. He is still a career 12.6 percent shooter, but he is getting better looks at ES and on the PP. He belongs here.

I had to leave out Drew Doughty and Quinton Byfield but both are going in opposite directions in their careers (at least the Kings hope in Byfield's case). The Kings have improved without touching their roster and will be a threat next season.

The core should be a snapshot of the franchise at a particular time and should reflect where the team is at in terms of competing for the Stanley Cup. The ideal core should be between 22 and 27 years of age and either approaching their peak or in the midst of it.

Teams with younger cores who are still prospects, should be in their rebuild or retool phase.

Teams with older cores are more than likely approaching the closing of their competitive windows and if they don't have the younger prospects becoming potential core members it could spell some lean years ahead.

Next week we will look at Minnesota, Nashville, San Jose and Seattle

Thanks very much for reading and if you have any comments or suggestions, please leave them below or follow me on Twitter @gampbler15

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