The Journey: High-Upside Depth Options from the 2023 Draft, Part 3
Ben Gehrels
2023-07-22
Welcome back to The Journey, where we track the development of prospects as they excel in junior, make the NHL, and push towards stardom.
Now that the real NHL draft is over, fantasy leagues have the green light to hold their own. Most managers are well acquainted by now with the big names in 2023, not only the guys at the top of the draft but also most players taken in the first round. While nailing your early picks is essential, the most interesting aspect of drafting is snagging hidden gems in later rounds.
With that in mind, this week's Journey will pick up where we left off last week, highlighting some more lesser-known commodities taken outside the first round in Nashville last month that could help you get an edge on your competitors a few years down the road—boom-bust types that might not make the NHL but could score in buckets if they do.
Prospects covered in Part 1:
Roman Kantserov, CHI
Koehn Ziemmer, LAK
Jayden Perron, CAR
Denver Barkey, PHI
Hoyt Stanley, OTT
Rodwin Dionicio, ANA
Tuomas Uronen, VGK
Aiden Fink, NAS
Prospects covered in Part 2:
Felix Nilsson, NAS
Gracyn Sawchyn, FLA
Nick Lardis, CHI
Matthew Mania, LAK
Timur Mukhanov, CAR
Tyler Peddle, CBJ
Note: I have removed Gavin Brindley, Andrew Cristall, and Riley Heidt from this edition because although all three are definitely high-upside prospects, they are also higher-profile than the others on this list and information on them is more readily available.
Round 2
Kasper Halttunen, SJS
A big guy with a booming shot, Halttunen split observers heading into the draft with an equal number of significant assets and red flags. He is not afraid to throw his substantial frame (6-3, 207 lbs) around and took over 15 shots in a game on multiple occasions in the Finnish junior league. His one-timer with the man advantage is such a powerful weapon that Team Finland built their power play around it at the U18 WJC, where he scored six goals in only five games (ten points). Scouts have criticized that shoot-first mentality, however, pointing to his poor pace and lack of playmaking as reasons why he was still available for San Jose at the start of the second round when he was seen as a potential top-ten pick heading into 2022-23.
Watching game tape of Halttunen, he is reminiscent of Alex Ovechkin: he is always involved physically, outmuscling guys and winning battles along the boards, and he scores again and again and again with his one-timer from the top of the left circle. Just like Ovi, teams and goalies know that the shot is coming but just can't stop it.
It's not just one-timers and slapshots with Halttunen, though—he can pick corners with his wrist shot, both from in tight at odd angles and from the blue line through traffic.
He took a nasty shot to the head in late October, and concussions are always concerning to see in this sport, especially with a player so young. Something to monitor moving forward. After returning, he was absolutely underwater in his 27 games at the Liiga level—his microstats are a sea of red except for his goals, shots, and slot passes—even though he scored 18 goals in 18 games against his peers. San Jose will be looking for him to play faster and smarter in his second go-around in Finland's top level in 2023-24. In fantasy, Halttunen makes an excellent power forward stash in deeper leagues. Guys like him who can snipe and throw big hits tend to get a value bump in multi cat formats.
Carson Rehkopf, SEA
In a best-case scenario, Rehkopf is a Victor Olofsson-type a few years from now, elevating an NHL team's scoring depth with his powerful shot and intuitive positioning in the offensive zone. A worst-case scenario sees him never develop the dynamism that is needed to crack an NHL roster. As Hadi Kalakeche, DP's Director of North American Scouting, puts it, "Save for positioning and scoring, every other area in Rehkopf's game is still raw." He has shown flashes of skill but has yet to put it all together night in and night out. He will head back to the OHL, where he just might challenge for the goal-scoring lead in 2023-24 after scoring 30 in 68 last year.
Lukas Dragicevic, SEA
Many of the comments I made in Part One about the Ducks' savvy fifth-round pick, Rodwin Dionicio, also apply to Dragicevic: he is incredibly deceptive, often beating several layers of pressure, and his passing game and awareness of space and how to manipulate opponents are both high-end. He also faces the same red flags as his Ducks counterpart in poor skating and defensive play. Check out his microstat profile, tracked by Mitch Brown over at EP Rinkside: Dragicevic is a significant asset on offense and in transition but a significant liability in his own zone, where he cannot rely on one-touch passes and give-and-gos to compensate for his skating. Quick forwards feast on him, even at the WHL level, and that is definitely concerning.
There was also a divide in the public scouting community, with many scouts expressing absolute bafflement about how he was able to achieve his eye-popping scoring totals (75 points in 68 games) given his apparent lack of dynamism. In explaining Dobber Prospect's final ranking of 59th overall for Dragicevic, for instance, Crossover Scout Graham Montgomery had this to say: "He didn't show a consistently high level of manipulation or playmaking. In fact, his play in the offensive zone was somewhat predictable. Most of the time when he got the puck at the blueline he would do one of two things: fire a shot towards the net, or make a pass around the perimeter. This is fine for keeping possession in the offensive zone, but for a player whose main selling point is supposed to be offense, I'm not convinced."
Round 3
William Whitelaw, CBJ
Like Halttunen, Whitelaw is like that Lil' Jon song: Shots! Shots! Shots! Shots! Shots! He can be an electrifying player, possessing a top-15 skill-set in the 2023 draft. His shot and puckhandling are exceptional, his skating is all-but-perfect technically, and he flashed an above-average IQ and solid physicality despite his small frame (5-9, 172lbs). At his best last year, Whitelaw was just as dominant over USHL competition as Jayden Perron (CAR) and Macklin Celibrini (2024 eligible). At his worst, he has been called "selfish" by NHL scouts for his tendency to cheat and neglect his teammates on offense, attempting to do it all himself.
What will happen when he encounters NHL systems and team discipline? Will he be able and willing to develop into more of a dual-threat scorer by better utilizing his more-skilled teammates? That will be the hope for Columbus as he joins Wisconsin's (NCAA) program next year. The Blue Jackets potentially came away from the draft with not only a franchise C in Adam Fantilli but also two skilled, smaller, absolute buzzsaws in Gavin Brindley and Whitelaw—the former more of a scrappy, two-way presence with skill, the latter a dangerous weapon with the puck inside the opposing blue line.
Whitelaw finished at 31st on the final Dobber Prospects board as a classic boom-bust prospect who could become a "dangerous and dynamic piece on a contending team" but "may not be an NHLer at all as he lacks a strong fallback game." He will have to show more dedication on defense to earn top-six NHL icetime, but his loaded skill-set makes him an ideal dice roll in fantasy.
Round 4
Alexander Rykov, CAR
Part of what made Rykov's projection cloudy heading into the draft was that he spent 26 out of his 29 total games on the season playing against men in Russia's top- and second-tier men's leagues. That meant his role was much more reduced than it would have been at the junior level. Plus, playing in a more competitive, structured team environment may have restricted the kind of mistake-prone creativity and dynamism that might have emerged if he had been playing against peers. Another curveball was that he missed the second half of the year, presumably due to injury, so viewing opportunities were limited, and we did not get to see what kind of progression he might have managed over the course of the year. He will start in the VHL again next year at 19, and Carolina will be hoping to see him take a step forward production-wise from the 11 points in 20 games he managed this year.
For fantasy, rostering Rykov only makes sense in deeper dynasty formats for now. He could see a sizable boost in value as soon as this Fall, however, because he has an above-average skill-set across the board, one more worthy of a late-first or early-second round pick. Check him out here scoring two goals in a VHL game back in December—especially the second goal (begins around 0:55), where he drives the net, cuts back to the middle, and tucks it in the far side:
Luca Pinelli, CBJ
Another smaller (5-9, 168 lbs), skilled forward in the Columbus pipeline. Pinelli fell down most draft boards over the course of the season, finishing 42nd on our final board—which was on the higher side in the industry. He plays at a high pace every single shift, though he has been knocked for slowing down to make plays, and shines in particular as a playmaker who can make quick, intelligent reads to pick defenses apart.
An interesting nugget from DP's Director of Scouting, Sebastian High: "As a D-1, I found Pinelli's playmaking and one-touch distribution to be core components of what made him a special player. This season, he was used exclusively as a finisher both at even strength and on the power-play, which I still believe is more of a systemic issue rather than a limitation of his actual game." Perhaps a mid-season trade next year will reignite Pinelli's playmaking. If he can improve his skating and bulk up a bit, he has NHL upside.
Aram Minnetian, DAL
Minnetian is considered the best defender on this year's UNDP team despite the fact that he scored only 31 points in 62 games. Like Cam York on the loaded 2018-19 edition, he has been somewhat forgotten in the hype around his team's top forwards. He excels in transition and in the offensive zone, where his mobility and playmaking are serious assets. Taking care of business in his own end is a work in progress, however, and Minnetian will be a long-term project for Dallas. His next step is college, where he will attempt to play a more central role in the offense at Boston College.
Round 5
Cam Allen, WAS
After posting 37 points in 65 games in his D-1 campaign, Allen was generating some hype as one of the top defensemen in the 2023 class heading into last year. But then he seemed to take a number of steps backwards as a draft-eligible, especially as Canada's captain at U18 WJC, and his draft stocks tumbled steadily all year until the Capitals finally broke his fall at 136th. Public scouts generally still agree, however, that Allen remains a second-round talent. He has no real gaps in his skill-set and showed some improvement down the stretch (aside from the WJC). Elite Prospects espoused a "Drew Doughty theory" of sorts to explain his poor play: because he played for a weak OHL team, he had to play almost 30 minutes a night in all situations. That, plus the pressure of scouts and expectations, may have caused the shaky decision-making we saw from him at times.
All signs point to him needing to develop more confidence in himself and who he is as a player. Because he is still so raw talent-wise, his offensive ceiling at the NHL level remains an open question. At this point, he feels like a bottom-pairing type who could hit 30 points someday with decent peripherals. His play over the next couple years will go a long way toward clarifying that projection. Great gamble by Washington in the fifth.
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Thanks for reading! Follow me on Twitter @beegare for more prospect content and fantasy hockey analysis.
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